Autonomous Car Progress

[Dewg]

Info on joining webcast of CPUC meeting on vote to give Waymo and Cruise their commercial ride-hailing permit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/15ng4gz

Bummer - looks like the server crashed.

 

[diplomat33]

Bummer - looks like the server crashed.

Yep. Probably too many people trying to join the webcast.

 

[Bladerskb]

Bummer - looks like the server crashed.

its open now.

 

[kpanda17]

its open now.

Link?

 

[diplomat33]

Link?

Admin Monitor - California - California Public Utilities Commission

www.adminmonitor.com

 

[diplomat33]

I think the pushback in SF against Cruise and Waymo just shows how naive Elon's robotaxi narrative is. Waymo and Cruise spent years in testing and getting CA DMV permit to test and are now trying to get the CPUC permit to actually make money from their rides. They have advanced driverless but still have some issues as we see. And look at the pushback from first responders who are upset at driverless cars blocking them during emergencies, labor unions afraid of losing jobs, general public who are fearful of new tech etc... But somehow Tesla is going to "solve FSD" in 6 months and unleash a million Teslas as driverless robotaxis all over the US with no permit? Not going to happen. And even if Tesla FSD gets good enough for some driverless, there would still be "stalls" where the Tesla robotaxi blocks the path, just like we see with Waymo and Cruise. Do we think Tesla FSD will never have stalls? Of course not. Imagine the pushback if there were a million Tesla robotaxis having stalls every single day all over the US! And how would Tesla handle these stalls for a million robotaxis? Would Tesla set up remote assistance for a million robotaxis? That would require huge infrastructure. More likely, Tesla would need to keep a safety driver to handle any stalls. But that would mean that they would not be true driverless. So my guess is Tesla "robotaxis" will not be true robotaxis, more like Uber style human ride-hailing with a human driver, just with FSD doing most of the driving. If Tesla achieves L4 and tries to do geofence driverless robotaxis, they will likely run into the same issues as Waymo and Cruise with regulatory pushback and years of getting permits.

 

[kpanda17]

Admin Monitor - California - California Public Utilities Commission

www.adminmonitor.com

TY

 

[uscbucsfan]

I think the pushback in SF against Cruise and Waymo just shows how naive Elon's robotaxi narrative is. Waymo and Cruise spent years in testing and getting CA DMV permit to test and are now trying to get the CPUC permit to actually make money from their rides. They have advanced driverless but still have some issues as we see. And look at the pushback from first responders who are upset at driverless cars blocking them during emergencies, labor unions afraid of losing jobs, general public who are fearful of new tech etc... But somehow Tesla is going to "solve FSD" in 6 months and unleash a million Teslas as driverless robotaxis all over the US with no permit? Not going to happen. And even if Tesla FSD gets good enough for some driverless, there would still be "stalls" where the Tesla robotaxi blocks the path, just like we see with Waymo and Cruise. Do we think Tesla FSD will never have stalls? Of course not. Imagine the pushback if there were a million Tesla robotaxis having stalls every single day all over the US! And how would Tesla handle these stalls for a million robotaxis? Would Tesla set up remote assistance for a million robotaxis? That would require huge infrastructure. More likely, Tesla would need to keep a safety driver to handle any stalls. But that would mean that they would not be true driverless. So my guess is Tesla "robotaxis" will not be true robotaxis, more like Uber style human ride-hailing with a human driver, just with FSD doing most of the driving. If Tesla achieves L4 and tries to do geofence driverless robotaxis, they will likely run into the same issues as Waymo and Cruise with regulatory pushback and years of getting permits.

If you read the opinion on FSD in the investor thread, there won't be stalls because FSD will far surpass Waymo/Cruise...soon.

I'm sure most just watch Whole Mars and think we are really really close.

 

[diplomat33]

If you read the opinion on FSD in the investor thread, there won't be stalls because FSD will far surpass Waymo/Cruise...soon.

Which is completely unrealistic IMO. No matter how good you think the tech can be, there will always be some unsolved edge cases that cause stalls, especially if you try to deploy at scale with no geofence. The idea that Tesla will achieve perfect L5 that never stalls is nonsense. I am sure Waymo and Cruise did not expect these stalls either. They thought their FSD was solved too, until they started getting more miles and encountering new cases.

I'm sure most just watch Whole Mars and think we are really really close.

Yes and that is why they get the false idea that FSD is closer than it really is. They don't see the videos of all the disengagements.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I think the pushback in SF against Cruise and Waymo just shows how naive Elon's robotaxi narrative is. Waymo and Cruise spent years in testing and getting CA DMV permit to test and are now trying to get the CPUC permit to actually make money from their rides. They have advanced driverless but still have some issues as we see. And look at the pushback from first responders who are upset at driverless cars blocking them during emergencies, labor unions afraid of losing jobs, general public who are fearful of new tech etc... But somehow Tesla is going to "solve FSD" in 6 months and unleash a million Teslas as driverless robotaxis all over the US with no permit? Not going to happen. And even if Tesla FSD gets good enough for some driverless, there would still be "stalls" where the Tesla robotaxi blocks the path, just like we see with Waymo and Cruise. Do we think Tesla FSD will never have stalls? Of course not. Imagine the pushback if there were a million Tesla robotaxis having stalls every single day all over the US! And how would Tesla handle these stalls for a million robotaxis? Would Tesla set up remote assistance for a million robotaxis? That would require huge infrastructure. More likely, Tesla would need to keep a safety driver to handle any stalls. But that would mean that they would not be true driverless. So my guess is Tesla "robotaxis" will not be true robotaxis, more like Uber style human ride-hailing with a human driver, just with FSD doing most of the driving. If Tesla achieves L4 and tries to do geofence driverless robotaxis, they will likely run into the same issues as Waymo and Cruise with regulatory pushback and years of getting permits.

Keep in mind SF only started protesting when there was no safety driver in the car. So mass release of vehicles with a safety driver remaining in the car may still remain viable. So basically like a more advanced version of door to door L2.

 

[diplomat33]

Watching the CPUC meeting, there were a bunch of people who spoke up against granting the commercial permit. Their arguments were that the tech is not ready yet because of all the stalls that are happening, waymo and cruise are not being transparent with the public, robotaxis will take jobs away. There were also a bunch of people arguing for granting the permit. Their arguments were basically that robotaxis will help disabled people a lot. One lady argued that we should not be afraid of tech progress and change. She quoted someone from like a hundred years ago who argued against bicycles stating that they would cause health problems and even homicidal tendencies. But we know those fears of bicycles were misplaced. Likewise, the fear of robotaxis is misplaced.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Watching the CPUC meeting, there were a bunch of people who spoke up against granting the commercial permit. Their arguments were that the tech is not ready yet because of all the stalls that are happening, waymo and cruise are not being transparent with the public, robotaxis will take jobs away. There were also a bunch of people arguing for granting the permit. Their arguments were basically that robotaxis will help disabled people a lot. One lady argued that we should not be afraid of tech progress and change. She quoted someone from like a hundred years ago who argued against bicycles stating that they would cause health problems and even homicidal tendencies. But we know those fears of bicycles were misplaced. Likewise, the fear of robotaxis is misplaced.

The problem with the disabled person argument is that none of the subject vehicles so far are wheelchair accessible. Also unlike a taxi or Uber, there is no driver to help the person get into the car and put their wheelchair in the trunk. The argument will make more sense when they actually release their dedicated vehicles (which presumably will support wheelchairs?)

 

[diplomat33]

Keep in mind SF only started protesting when there was no safety driver in the car. So mass release of vehicles with a safety driver remaining in the car may still remain viable. So basically like a more advanced version of door to door L2.

Yes. That is what I said that Tesla "robotaxis" will likely have a safety driver. I believe Tesla FSD will essentially be a more advanced L2 door to door, where the car does do all the driving but with driver supervision. And it gives Tesla the best of both worlds. They can deploy FSD and even do ride-hailing but with safety drivers so they avoid the issues with driverless. But of course, that is not what Elon promised in 2019. I am saying that reality will likely fall short of the dream that many have about Tesla robotaxi.

 

[diplomat33]

The problem with the disabled person argument is that none of the subject vehicles so far are wheelchair accessible. Also unlike a taxi or Uber, there is no driver to help the person get into the car and put their wheelchair in the trunk. The argument will be stronger when they actually release their dedicated vehicles (which presumably will support wheelchairs?)

I know the Cruise Origin will be wheelchair accessible. I am sure the Waymo Geely vehicle will be as well.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I know the Cruise Origin will be wheelchair accessible. I am sure the Waymo Geely vehicle will be as well.

But how is that more of a benefit to disabled people than a wheel chair accessible cab?

 

[diplomat33]

But how is that more of a benefit to disabled people than a wheel chair accessible cab?

I think the benefit comes more from safety and privacy. I don't know how many wheelchair accessible cabs there are but if Waymo and Cruise are able to deploy a large number of their wheelchair accessible robotaxis, then they should be easily summoned (less wait time). So there would be a benefit in being able to get a wheelchair accessible robotaxi more easily.

 

[diplomat33]

If the CPUC votes "no" on giving Waymo and Cruise their commercial ride-hailing permit, what do we think the consequences would be? The most immediate consequence would be that Waymo and Cruise are not able to commercialize their service yet. Would Waymo and Cruise just keep testing and try again later? Would Waymo and Cruise just ditch SF and focus on their service areas in other cities like Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, cities that are more welcoming to robotaxis? Would the AV industry as a whole start reevaluate the viability of robotaxis? Could it cause a shift away from robotaxis to consumer car AV systems that have a safety driver?

 

[Dewg]

The stalling sucks, and I get the frustration, but this is really more about the further erosion of the taxi industry - only this time it's also going to affect Uber and Lyft. Most everything in today's government is about money - follow the money.

The taxi industry argued strongly against Uber and Lyft, that they would destroy the industry and cost jobs, etc. This is just another extension of that argument.

 

[kpanda17]

Like Tesla VPP, wont Tesla Robotaxi in the future be a revenue share between the vehicle owner and Tesla? And if I own six Teslas that I rent out as robotaxis, then I am making 6x revenue. Similar to Lyft/Uber for revenue share.
If all true, Tesla muzzles in on Lyft and Uber but the little guy might make even more money with Tesla/Robo than they did with the other guys.
I know this is all future, but thoughts?

 

[diplomat33]

Around 150 people had signed up to speak in person at the hearing, with more than 80 people signed up to speak online.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/15nopit