Autopilot saved our lives

[bwilson4web]

BTW, I remember a stretch of Interstate under construction in Memphis that had the barrels moved about halfway over the painted line. The car clearly was adjusting its path in response to the barrels. It is almost as if towards the sides, the car sees things that it does not see directly in its path.

Bob Wilson

 

[jb007gd]

BTW, I remember a stretch of Interstate under construction in Memphis that had the barrels moved about halfway over the painted line. The car clearly was adjusting its path in response to the barrels. It is almost as if towards the sides, the car sees things that it does not see directly in its path.

Bob Wilson

This is one of my favorite KenM posts. He loves his Chef Boyardee!

Ken M. on Chef Boyardee.

 

[Fossil Fool]

As a retired (20 years) Sheriff I learned that the world and the range of drivers on the road is not perfect. Relying solely on the government or AutoPilot (or any other technology) to keep you safe can cost you your life. From my training I learned that about 10% of the drivers on the road have some sort of impairment. The take away is be vigilant 100% of the time. Don't hand your life to an algorithm.

 

[Bill Price]

As a retired (20 years) Sheriff I learned that the world and the range of drivers on the road is not perfect. Relying solely on the government or AutoPilot (or any other technology) to keep you safe can cost you your life. From my training I learned that about 10% of the drivers on the road have some sort of impairment. The take away is be vigilant 100% of the time. Don't hand your life to an algorithm.

Agreed..........and although I'm not in law enforcement any more, I would venture that the percentage of impaired drivers on any given day that you drive with or by would be higher than 10%.

 

[Fossil Fool]

Agreed..........and although I'm not in law enforcement any more, I would venture that the percentage of impaired drivers on any given day that you drive with or by would be higher than 10%.

Bill, you sure look at the world differently after being an LEO, right?

 

[Bill Price]

Bill, you sure look at the world differently after being an LEO, right?

I would venture that most of the friends of LEO's also look that way as well. And let us not forget that impaired driving also entails smoking dope, legal self-medication of opioids and T. drivers hopped up on whatever legal or non-legal "uppers" that are available to keep them awake. And dare we include those that text or read email while driving? If we include them, I would think the percentage of impaired drivers would exceed 25%?

 

[fourier]

This should have been closed back when the guy literally admitted to breaking the law by driving while suffering from a medical condition that renders him unable to safely operate his vehicle.

Bob: If you aren't trolling, take a taxi or stop altogether. When your ignorance gets a kid killed because autopilot didn't detect them running across the street while you're asleep, it's not going to be just you that suffers the consequences. You aren't putting yourself in danger with your ignorance, you're putting others at danger, every day.

Hopefully this has been reported to the Texas DMV and your license gets revoked before something serious happens. Because it's only a matter of time.

 

[bwilson4web]

I’ve already found a YouTube by a German Std Range Plus Model 3 owner who recorded a 0% to 100% SOC. I combined his data with mine, 4% to 100%, to compare and contrast the effect of recent software updates. I’ve already shared it with the owners forum. They seem more interest in technical content and less in ad hominem, ignorance.

Regardless, our Model 3 remains accident free and my family uninjured and alive. We use advanced technology and have no sympathy with Luddites.

Bob Wilson

 

[fourier]

Regardless, our Model 3 remains accident free and my family uninjured and alive. We use advanced technology and have no sympathy with Luddites.

Bob Wilson

If anyone ever needed a perfect example of survivorship bias, this guy is the definition. Statistics will claim you eventually, I just hope it doesn't include others.

 

[bwilson4web]

Statistics will claim . . .

Source: Lies, damned lies, and statistics - Wikipedia

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
​

Regardless, our family and Model 3 remains accident free. Perhaps there are some actual metrics?
Source: Tesla Vehicle Safety Report

In the 2nd quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.27 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.19 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.41 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 498,000 miles.*​

Bob Wilson

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Texas DMV

‘Bama I think!

Roll Tide I guess.

Source: Lies, damned lies, and statistics - Wikipedia

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
​

Regardless, our family and Model 3 remains accident free. Perhaps there are some actual metrics?
Source: Tesla Vehicle Safety Report

In the 2nd quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.27 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.19 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.41 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 498,000 miles.*​

Bob Wilson

There is irony to your quoting of these two links in the same post...this is the second or third time you’ve linked to the report in this thread.

What about that safety report?

 

[bwilson4web]

Then you might enjoy: Tesla Autopilot Safety Stats Said Imbued With Statistical Fallacies, Interpret Cautiously

As I’ve mentioned in my column posts, Tesla and Elon Musk’s vision for the realization of semi-autonomous and fully autonomous cars is commendable and has undoubtedly helped spur progress on advancing toward achieving self-driving driverless cars. But it's constructive to consider the nature of the statistics provided to the public by both Tesla and Musk when it comes to asserting the miles-safety related triumphs they purport to have already accomplished.
. . . ​

A reasoned article, he proposes alternate hypothesis such as superior Tesla owners versus the usual owners. I agree with him that more data would help. I sent him a note suggesting the NHTSA FARS database could help. But I pointed out I used my engineering background in source selection.

Experienced with BMW i3 and Toyota driver assistance systems, it was clear AutoPilot has better dynamic cruise control, lane keeping, and lane changing. It was requirements that drove the decision to buy basic AutoPilot.

So far, we're not seeing other statistical evidence that AutoPilot is less safe than not . . . something to disprove the AutoPilot safety hypothesis. But in about 2-3 years, the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) will have metrics to evaluate the current Tesla fleet. Can you propose a better source of statistical metrics?

Until then, it makes sense to cite what is available.

Bob Wilson

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

superior Tesla owners versus the usual owners

Ohhh...based on what I have see. Around here, that can’t be it!

Can you propose a better source of statistical metrics?

No. There are no statistics available AFAIK.

Until then, it makes sense to cite what is available.

No, I don’t agree. Not unless you are going to heavily caveat it with all the analysis...otherwise it would just be like a fawning Tesla press release. It is better left without mention if the data are unverifiable.

Keep in mind that you were using the statistics as justification for relying on Autopilot. In that context, this data would be along the lines of “lies” and “damn lies.”

When used as an L2 driver’s aid, I could imagine that Autosteer + TACC could improve safety, but unfortunately there has been no data published to date that I am aware of which would help figure that out.

Tesla keeps on talking about publishing data, but unfortunately I have not seen them publicize any yet.

 

[fourier]

Regardless, our family and Model 3 remains accident free. Perhaps there are some actual metrics?

Like I said, definition of survivorship bias. The fact that you haven't been in an accident yet does not say anything to the safety of the car whatsoever. And if you ever bothered to watch one of the many videos of what Autopilot "sees", you'd understand why it's insane to trust your life and those around you with it. Which is why Tesla themselves insist you don't. But hey, I'm sure you know better than Tesla, the NHTSA, Elon, everyone on this board, state law regarding driving, etc.

Also, none of those numbers you referenced involve drivers who are literally unconscious at the wheel. Autopilot is a supplement, not a primary driving system. Either treat it like one or get off the road.

Again, it bares repeating: don't put other people's lives at risk for your refusal to acknowledge the law, Tesla's requirements, etc. You can be a smartass all you want, but you'll never live it down when you run over a kid while microsleeping.

 

[bwilson4web]

survivorship bias

I prefer to call it believing my 'lying eyes.' AutoPilot worked and we're happy. As for those with self-imposed angsts, well not my problem:

With 12,000 miles on the odometer since March 26 and ~90% on AutoPilot, driving takes new understanding and skills that some are unwilling or unable to master. In contrast, the next generations will find AutoPilot and similar systems fun especially when combined with affordable EV miles.

So today, I've driven over 25 miles around town in the rain and traffic. With rare exception, it was driven in AutoPilot which really makes driving fun again.

Bob Wilson

 

[Burrito]

Like I said, definition of survivorship bias. The fact that you haven't been in an accident yet does not say anything to the safety of the car whatsoever. And if you ever bothered to watch one of the many videos of what Autopilot "sees", you'd understand why it's insane to trust your life and those around you with it. Which is why Tesla themselves insist you don't. But hey, I'm sure you know better than Tesla, the NHTSA, Elon, everyone on this board, state law regarding driving, etc.

Also, none of those numbers you referenced involve drivers who are literally unconscious at the wheel. Autopilot is a supplement, not a primary driving system. Either treat it like one or get off the road.

Again, it bares repeating: don't put other people's lives at risk for your refusal to acknowledge the law, Tesla's requirements, etc. You can be a smartass all you want, but you'll never live it down when you run over a kid while microsleeping.

fourier, its a lost cause, i also have no idea how this guy is on the road, certainly with this thread someone more local to bob can get the local authorities/dmv involved to remove him from the road. I honestly don't care if he crashes into a wall and burst into a ball of flames, i just hope he doesnt harm someone else in the process with his asinine decisions to go against common sense.

(enter quote from bob about safety, the bible, or some other non sequitur)

 

[fourier]

I prefer to call it believing my 'lying eyes.' AutoPilot worked and we're happy. As for those with self-imposed angsts, well not my problem:

With 12,000 miles on the odometer since March 26 and ~90% on AutoPilot, driving takes new understanding and skills that some are unwilling or unable to master. In contrast, the next generations will find AutoPilot and similar systems fun especially when combined with affordable EV miles.

So today, I've driven over 25 miles around town in the rain and traffic. With rare exception, it was driven in AutoPilot which really makes driving fun again.

Bob Wilson

At this point I'm willing to believe you don't even have a Tesla. Your stories don't even line up with autopilot's current functionality. And even if you do, the fact you think it's on 90% of the time shows you're not observant. You can't even drive through a city without having to take over at red lights and stop signs - things autopilot will not help you with, and things that will get you killed when you fall asleep as you drive through them.

But I'm sure you've got yet another excuse about why that won't happen to you.

 

[kavyboy]

This thread:

 

[bwilson4web]

Fair enough:

Meanwhile I continue to enjoy my car and driving:

Driving on AutoPilot is not like ordinary driving and some have not figured it out. Regardless, basic AutoPilot continues to improve. Today I noticed it is better at selecting the correct lane in a one-to-two split with a small amount of pressure on the wheel. Technology marches on.

By all means, continue adding to this thread. Although some 'set their hair on fire and jump off the roof,' this thread shows the wisdom of having AutoPilot making our cars safer. As for me, I'm reminded of Also Guthrie's Alice's Restaurant:

If you want to end war and stuff, you got to sing loud I've been singing this song now for twenty five minutes. I could sing it for another twenty five minutes. I'm not proud... or tired. So we'll wait till it comes around again, and this time with four part harmony and feeling​

Bob Wilson

 

[Burrito]

(enter quote from bob about safety, the bible, or some other non sequitur)

Fair enough:

Meanwhile I continue to enjoy my car and driving:

Driving on AutoPilot is not like ordinary driving and some have not figured it out. Regardless, basic AutoPilot continues to improve. Today I noticed it is better at selecting the correct lane in a one-to-two split with a small amount of pressure on the wheel. Technology marches on.

By all means, continue adding to this thread. Although some 'set their hair on fire and jump off the roof,' this thread shows the wisdom of having AutoPilot making our cars safer. As for me, I'm reminded of Also Guthrie's Alice's Restaurant:

If you want to end war and stuff, you got to sing loud I've been singing this song now for twenty five minutes. I could sing it for another twenty five minutes. I'm not proud... or tired. So we'll wait till it comes around again, and this time with four part harmony and feeling​

Bob Wilson

yep..