AWD delivery thread

[Stellavator]

according the @jkirkwood001 chart
for all of 2017 there are 102 AWDs waiting. From what I was told that is likely 2% of all reservations. 1/50. If that's true, that is 5,100 cars reserved in 2017. That's less than 1 weeks production run. Since they've cut color options down, they should have already produced that many cars so far in October. So now it's just getting them to where they belong.
For 2016 remnants 111 or, also, about 1 week's production. We're 2 weeks into Oct. Everyone thru 2017 should be in the distribution pipeline.
View attachment 342760

False.

Assumes a lot about the proportion of actual orders reflected in the data. Also assumes there is some logic or method to order of deliveries.

Anecdotally, and personally, there are lots of 2016 reservation holders with no car, no VIN, and no delivery date, with no contact or information whatsoever to suggest it will happen before 2019.

I reserved 3/31/16, and nothing. Meanwhile, people are getting deliveries scheduled into November.

But stay optimistic. I'm glad there are folks out there that are.

For me, I am very frustrated with Tesla right now. And I feel like just canceling my order and buying a car from a company that actually knows how to run a business.

 

[thimblepk]

Your trouble may be the silver color that got temporarily discontinued. You may want to call and talk to someone specifically about the color and how that might be affecting your delivery.

When I asked that question, my IDA claimed that silver deliveries aren’t delayed, but I’m not convinced. We’re also a June order close to the factory with no VIN.

@cablue if you get different answers, let us know!

 

[ceekz]

QQ: Do we know if new deliveries have v9 preloaded? Hey, one can hope!

Timing says not likely. My car had a September build date but the software version was 2018.32. Once Tesla straightened out my account and I had phone key access, it ran an update to 2018.36. Still waiting for v9!

 

[zemaker]

Has anyone picked up their car in Kansas City? How was the experience?

Bit concerned here, they said my car will arrive there on the 18th and they scheduled my pickup on the 19th. Feel like there is a high probability it won't be there on my pickup day.

 

[wcorey]

False.

Assumes a lot about the proportion of actual orders reflected in the data. Also assumes there is some logic or method to order of deliveries.

Anecdotally, and personally, there are lots of 2016 reservation holders with no car, no VIN, and no delivery date, with no contact or information whatsoever to suggest it will happen before 2019.

I reserved 3/31/16, and nothing. Meanwhile, people are getting deliveries scheduled into November.

But stay optimistic. I'm glad there are folks out there that are.

For me, I am very frustrated with Tesla right now. And I feel like just canceling my order and buying a car from a company that actually knows how to run a business.

No...true. I've had several conversations on the veracity of the data in those spreadsheets. Initially, it was a novel idea and the thought was by the original spreadsheet authors that 9% of those reserving registered with the spreadsheet. That 9% soon dissipated to 2%. Assuming the initial 9% would skew any results so horribly to make them meaningless. Assuming 2% (at this point) would over-emphasize the number, better to assume too many than too few. The error you are making is assuming the 2016 reveal reservations lost as reflected by people such as yourself, carries for all the 2016 reveal reservations. That simply isn't true. For every whiner, there are likely hundreds of very happy owners that have more to do than spend their day trolling this forum. The folks retired that do have tons of available time to troll this forum represent a small percentage of those waiting. We had our 'conspicuous consumption' period. We've had our muscle car period. We've learned how to balance our budgets and not spend money foolishly. For myself, once I get mine delivered, I AM GONE. This place is depressing. Is Tesla completely screwing up deliveries? YEP! Do I have a drop dead date? Yes. So, yeah, go get yourself a 7 series BMW. Drive it proudly. They're actually made in SC or GA I am told.

 

[wcorey]

QQ: Do we know if new deliveries have v9 preloaded? Hey, one can hope!

Just the beta users. Model 3 Owners Club says should be GA by end of Oct.

 

[smsiegel33]

Has anyone picked up their car in Kansas City? How was the experience?

Bit concerned here, they said my car will arrive there on the 18th and they scheduled my pickup on the 19th. Feel like there is a high probability it won't be there on my pickup day.

I wonder if our cars are on the same train/truck. I am picking up in Stl on the 19th but my IDA said it would be arriving on Oct 16/17. She said it would be in Richmond on the 13th but i have no idea what state. She said probably California. I hope not or else there is no way it will be here by then. Maybe it is Richmond VA and the trucks head back west which would be why mine would arrive before yours. I don't have a high confidence in the this ladys info though.

 

[Stellavator]

No...true. I've had several conversations on the veracity of the data in those spreadsheets. Initially, it was a novel idea and the thought was by the original spreadsheet authors that 9% of those reserving registered with the spreadsheet. That 9% soon dissipated to 2%. Assuming the initial 9% would skew any results so horribly to make them meaningless. Assuming 2% (at this point) would over-emphasize the number, better to assume too many than too few. The error you are making is assuming the 2016 reveal reservations lost as reflected by people such as yourself, carries for all the 2016 reveal reservations. That simply isn't true. For every whiner, there are likely hundreds of very happy owners that have more to do than spend their day trolling this forum. The folks retired that do have tons of available time to troll this forum represent a small percentage of those waiting. We had our 'conspicuous consumption' period. We've had our muscle car period. We've learned how to balance our budgets and not spend money foolishly. For myself, once I get mine delivered, I AM GONE. This place is depressing. Is Tesla completely screwing up deliveries? YEP! Do I have a drop dead date? Yes. So, yeah, go get yourself a 7 series BMW. Drive it proudly. They're actually made in SC or GA I am told.

My point was that you can't know the conclusions you are coming to. Spread sheet or not, there is no truly reliable source data. We can only make guesses based on small points of mostly anecdotal evidence. As evidence, re-read your last post and count how many times you used the word assume.

I hope everyone here gets to their own personal Tesla nervana. I hope that for myself as well. But for the moment, I am frustrated, I'm not the only one, and I have good reason for it.

Best of luck to you. Seriously.

 

[reymin]

Scheduled to pick up car 10/19 at the Kansas City location. Has anyone picked theirs up from there?

That is my delivery location, so I will be curious to hear about your experience.

 

[thorg12]

False.

Assumes a lot about the proportion of actual orders reflected in the data. Also assumes there is some logic or method to order of deliveries.

Anecdotally, and personally, there are lots of 2016 reservation holders with no car, no VIN, and no delivery date, with no contact or information whatsoever to suggest it will happen before 2019.

I reserved 3/31/16, and nothing. Meanwhile, people are getting deliveries scheduled into November.

But stay optimistic. I'm glad there are folks out there that are.

For me, I am very frustrated with Tesla right now. And I feel like just canceling my order and buying a car from a company that actually knows how to run a business.

You’re a day 1 reservation holder and June order. I was discuss with your local delivery center or Tesla advisor if you have one.
I feel the fact I had 2016 reservation and ordered in June seemed to push things along

 

[wcorey]

My point was that you can't know the conclusions you are coming to. Spread sheet or not, there is no truly reliable source data. We can only make guesses based on small points of mostly anecdotal evidence.

And that is the science of modelling data. If one accepts participation was 9% of reservations initially and subsequently dwindled to 2% there are assumptions that can be made, not truths, assumptions. If N people entered date into a spreadsheet and some subsequently lost interest that shows as incomplete data. If N/4 continued updating their data. There are other sources beyond the flawed spreadsheet but it's requires assumptions as well. 420,000 reservations and we know how many cars were produced. What we don't know is how what percentage is SR, EU, Asia. Early on I figured 50% were SR, leaving 210,000 LR. Figure 50% of that is NA ~105,000. According to Bloomberg Telsa has made 100,000 Model 3s (1/11/18). I also figured for 50% RWD of that 105,000, leaving 57,000 AWD. So the defense rests! Data modeling is actually a science not wild-ass guesses.

 

[Stellavator]

You’re a day 1 reservation holder and June order. I was discuss with your local delivery center or Tesla advisor if you have one.
I feel the fact I had 2016 reservation and ordered in June seemed to push things along

I have. I have spoken to multiple people on the phone at Tesla, and in person at the local sales office, at sales, and delivery. All I can get is that my data is all there, there is nothing more to add or correct, that I do have a delivery advisor, but no VIn. I have had a delivery advisor for about 2 months. Actually, I have had 3 DAs. Only one of which would respond to me, and the information I got was, "I'm sure it will be soon". Then I wait. And nothing.

 

[wcorey]

I have. I have spoken to multiple people on the phone at Tesla, and in person at the local sales office, at sales, and delivery. All I can get is that my data is all there, there is nothing more to add or correct, that I do have a delivery advisor, but no VIn. I have had a delivery advisor for about 2 months. Actually, I have had 3 DAs. Only one of which would respond to me, and the information I got was, "I'm sure it will be soon". Then I wait. And nothing.

You do have a date range though Oct->Dec...This is what happens when one changes their config. So, if keeping with Telsa's claim of hitting month 2 (clearly doesn't appear it'll work for me) that puts you likely to get a car assignment, if not delivery in Nov or assignment Nov delivery in Dec. Question to you, and it's rhetorical, does that work for you? BTW, I took a lot of math, modeling, and statistics in college.

 

[0mpg]

You’re a day 1 reservation holder and June order. I was discuss with your local delivery center or Tesla advisor if you have one.
I feel the fact I had 2016 reservation and ordered in June seemed to push things along

Also call the delivery line and explain you are a day 1 and need a vinn. It worked for me. Ask for Veronica.

 

[the_danimal]

Pinged my contact again today but haven't heard back. A little worried the hurricane may delay the car from getting onto the truck in Birmingham. Then again, I wouldn't want them to rush it – just don't want to deal with another appointment cancellation.

 

[austinmichaeld]

I got an email last night and my heart sunk...I'm four days out from delivery attempt no. 3. My IDA has offered me home delivery. He mentioned that they may be able to do it Saturday 10/13 but for sure 10/15. Crossing fingers

 

[wcorey]

I got an email last night and my heart sunk...I'm four days out from delivery attempt no. 3. My IDA has offered me home delivery. He mentioned that they may be able to do it Saturday 10/13 but for sure 10/15. Crossing fingers

Today is the 11th...that's not bad at all considering initial res/config was in July!

 

[Scottingitup]

Under 48 hours to delivery, financing and travel plans set .

 

[a.void]

Got scheduled this AM for 10/19. Expected to get into Columbus on 10/17, and they wanted a 2 day buffer. They were able to confirm it was in Chicago rail yard, so it should be loaded onto a truck and get here we'll within my delivery time.

This looks legit this time, but I'm still waiting on the MVPA. She told me early next week.
Account is updated with the delivery, but no VIN. However they gave me the 117xxx earlier this week.

 

[qwer]

My edit link just disappeared and going to the edit URL redirects to my reservation summary page. What are people thinking that means lately? Progress or not a lot of meaning at this point?