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battery swapping confirmed - no more "mystery" announcement

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If this thread had a "vote-to-close-this-thread" button I'd have pressed it by now.

Don't worry, there's at least 4 others just like this one..... :wink:

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Correct. Elon has already said it's swapping, why are people trying to figure out what he's already told us?

Probably because it's tough to see how Tesla could pull off the logistics and make it worthwhile. As I keep saying, we've been surprised before and if there's something we don't get why not wait till it's actually presented tomorrow night?
 
I'm still laughing about the horses comment. Seriously, that is probably the best way to explain why innovation happens outside the focus group / survey obsessed world of traditional marketing based organizations. Look at IBM as a perfect example, and specifically Watson. They basically thought it would be cool to have a machine that can play Jeopardy, and are now leveraging the potential it represents for business purposes. The point is disruption. I love it. I can't believe I'm becoming a fanboy, but I'm just in love with Tesla right now.
He paraphrased a quote attributed to Henry Ford. "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse."
 
A notebook (or cellphone) battery analogy is not perfect. You can still use a notebook or cellphone while it's charging (it's just no longer mobile), but you can't drive a car while it's charging.

yes you can. metal air range extender or super cap in the frunk. pop it in, drive off. car recharges while you're driving.

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Now if only you could easily battery swap an iphone...then you wouldn't need to buy a new one every year when the damn thing goes dead on you.
 
Nope. You are still limited by LiIon chemistry charging properties.


^^^ this. I highly doubt there will be any faster charging. It's already dangerous to charge a li-ion battery as fast as Tesla is already doing. While they can mitigate some risks with cooling etc, they are still present. IMO (as a non-battery guru) anything faster would probably risk permanent damage to the batteries or worse.
 
I have a theory that Tesla will use a battery swap with “power swap charging”, i.e. without removing he original battery. The reason of my thoughts is to be found in the article below. When you may charge 200 kWh into the battery of a ferry in 10 minutes, I think it is possible to charge a Tesla Model S 85 kWh in less than 5 minutes,using a similar method. I think that Elon Musk has developed an own way of transferring the solar power from a large bulk battery, with a DC transfer solution (swap) into the Model S battery pack, similar to the one presented for the ferry. Any thoughts?
From the newspaper Aftenposten.no in Norway: Shortcut of original. Translation not perfect.
- The world’s firstbattery ferry is Norwegian.
From 1.st January 2015 the worlds first battery ferry will be in traffic between two harbours in Norway.The ferry is being built in Norway, and will be completed autumn 2014. It is like a traditional ferry, but energy comes from batteries.Siemens Norway has developed the technology that the ferry will use.One of the main issues was to charge the battery quick enough, to get itfilled up in the short time the ferry was parked at the harbour, and the fact that the supply chain from the public supply of electricity was not fast enough.
Solution was to make 3 battery packages, one onboard, and one left on each harbour, says director ofsales in Siemens. While the ferry is on its way, the two batteries are loaded with electricity from the public electricity cables. When the ferry is parked, for only 10 minutes, the batteries will be charged from the others. The batteries are about the same as in an ordinaryNissan Leaf, but the capacity is about 50 times the car. One time crossing the fjord takes about 150-200 kilowatt-hours(kWh).
Link: http://www.aftenposten.no/okonomi/Verdens-forste-batteriferge-er-norsk-7221422.html#.UcCv7-o4UX4
(If you use Google translator you will get heidea that you could rent this ferry, but that is Google’s translation forharbour. I have tried to translate some of the important issues that I focus, foryou.)

As I get it, SWAP is not only the word for exchange of something, but also exchange of a stream. When you look swap up in Wikipedia, you find the following definitions for computers; and in my opinion Tesla Model S is closer to a computer than to the old fashioned fuel car

Swap (computer science)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Jump to: navigation, search
In computer programming, the act of swapping two variables refers to mutually exchanging the values of the variables. Usually, this is done with the data in memory. For example, in a program, two variables may be defined thus (in pseudocode):
 
Speculation over the event tomorrow aside, do we have anyone signed up to live blog/post about it here? Elon tweeted that the demo is at 8pm, but the video won't be posted until 9:30pm. I'm gonna want to know how it went down before then.
 
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My thoughts exactly regarding BP's problem not being with their technology.

$50m to $100m overall means $250k to $500k per swapper. It's a bit cheaper than BP, but not by a lot.

BP however had no other use for the batteries being swapped. Tesla does. So maybe the technology part Elon was referring to is the better overall integration in the entire model, and not so much the act of swapping.

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So you would need specialized flatbed with a swapper to go and pick up a battery for you (potentially 65 miles away) and bring it to you?

As opposed to just taking any existing flatbed that's already out in the wild to the next charger?

So it's less convenient and more expensive. Not a great combination :).

The other thing being missed is that Better Place relied heavily on the swapping - much more than Tesla will. They needed lots of stations and lots of availability because their cars were short range.
The Model S is two notches above that. The Model S has a 200+ mile range, so a great many of the trips ( probably the vast majority ) that a BP car would need swapping or charging - the Model S does not.
The second notch is supercharging. If a swapper isn't near you, maybe a supercharger is. If superchargers are cheaper than swappers, you can have more of those. If there is a location that doesn't get enough traffic for a swapper, it might get enough for a couple of superchargers.
Lastly, Tesla can roll out swappers to improve the convenience of the Model S as demand requires, BP needed to bootstrap an area with them or their cars were crippled. You can happily drive a Model S for 8+ months without a swapper or supercharger anywhere nearby - most of us have.
Those things combined will let Tesla get away with a couple orders of magnitude fewer swappers than Better Place needed.
 
So if it is free or cheap to swap out my battery, can I do it right before I sell the car?
That would save me a ton compared to the $12,000 battery replacement cost.
If I was at a point where the car is 5 or 6 years old and I am ready for something new, I would just swap a few times till I get a really good battery in there, then sell my car.
 
So if it is free or cheap to swap out my battery, can I do it right before I sell the car?
That would save me a ton compared to the $12,000 battery replacement cost.
If I was at a point where the car is 5 or 6 years old and I am ready for something new, I would just swap a few times till I get a really good battery in there, then sell my car.
Tesla will likely structure their scheme to account for this. There's been multiple proposals:
-Battery rental (you get your pack back)
-Battery monthly lease
-Minimum quality guarantee (you get a pack back with similar condition or there is a set standard in which case your car might not qualify)
-Pay $12k fee (or other) first to get access to swap

At any rate, one simple way Tesla can prevent "gaming" the system this way is to not tell you the quality of the battery you are getting back during swapping. Plus it'll be tough to certify the quality of your battery to a potential buyer and the buyer can always go and swap for another one afterwards (so not sure this will help resale much compared to not swapping and just selling the car).
 
Tesla will likely structure their scheme to account for this. There's been multiple proposals:
-Battery rental (you get your pack back)
-Battery monthly lease
-Minimum quality guarantee (you get a pack back with similar condition or there is a set standard in which case your car might not qualify)
-Pay $12k fee (or other) first to get access to swap

At any rate, one simple way Tesla can prevent "gaming" the system this way is to not tell you the quality of the battery you are getting back during swapping. Plus it'll be tough to certify the quality of your battery to a potential buyer and the buyer can always go and swap for another one afterwards (so not sure this will help resale much compared to not swapping and just selling the car).

I doubt they'll structure it so you get your own pack back. I also have a hard time believing it's going to be something that's costly either. I would put my money on the "don't worry about your battery pack" comments Elon's made in the past, which leads me to believe it's along the lines of a minimum quality guarantee. It's also possible that they could do something like 'x number of swaps per x amount of miles (or days) are free, anything above that there will be a small fee'. That would at least make it available to everyone to use, not just someone whose taking advantage of it on a daily basis or someone who is uber rich and can afford to spend another one-time cost of $12k etc.
 
Lots of gems here in this exclusive Reuters interview with Elon... much of the interview is on dealer issues, but, there is a good portion devoted to pack swap... it sounds as if he'll be slowly rolling these pack swaps out at Supercharger locations where they see sufficient "demand" at first -- investment should be $50-100 million, and, to the question: how fast will the swap be? Elon chuckles, "Quickly... really quickly" -- makes me think tonight's live demo will be impressive :cool:

 
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