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You are far too certain when trying to predict the future.

And crypto boosters are far too conspiratorial about the evil intentions of banks and governments.

Fixed=constant. Some cryptos are fixed, many are disinflationary(like bitcoin), some deflationary, some wildly inflationary. Some even change by consensus (like dogecoin that went from wildly inflationary to deflationary), some don't allow change(like bitcoin)

And no crypto allows for the supply to be adjusted to fit economic conditions. And having the correct amount of money is critical. As noted above (and seen in the Great Depression) too little money is as disastrous as too much. This is what crypto boosters fail to understand. They dismiss the study of economics because it's not perfect. I like to point out that scientists don't know everything, but pseudoscientists don't know anything. Something similar applies here: Economists don't know everything about how an economy functions, but crypto enthusiasts don't know anything about how an economy functions.

The very thing that crypto enthusiasts love about crypto is the thing that makes it utterly useless as currency: The lack of regulation.

The nice thing with crypto is that you don't need to have your money at the bank. You are the bank.

You can keep your cash in your mattress, too, if you want to. You don't have to keep it in the bank. Yes, you could be robbed. But I once read an estimate of the astronomical amount of crypto that's been irrevocably lost because it was stored on computers that died or hard drives that failed or the owners lost their passwords. Not to mention the intentional fraud, theft, and embezzlement.

Twice, people have managed to charge purchases to my credit card. I called the bank and got all my money back. If I forget my password I can go to the bank, demonstrate my identity, and regain access. Crypto has none of that. It's an easy vehicle for speculation, but it's a zero-sum game: You only make money when somebody else is willing to put in even more money.
 
The very thing that crypto enthusiasts love about crypto is the thing that makes it utterly useless as currency: The lack of regulation.
I think the main reason crypto found use was because its users needed a currency without regulations. And this was also party why its usage has grown so much. There was some hype and explosive growth with speculation, but the underlying fundamentals is what lead to the explosion of real use for drug trade, gambling, remittance, web3.0 ethereum contracts, timestamping, as a ledger for resource management etc. Some things are just hard to do with regulated/analogue currencies.

If you actually want to understand how crypto went from zero to something, this is a great book:
 
I think the main reason crypto found use was because its users needed a currency without regulations. And this was also party why its usage has grown so much. There was some hype and explosive growth with speculation, but the underlying fundamentals is what lead to the explosion of real use for drug trade, gambling, ...

Criminals are often willing to accept wild fluctuations in value in return for the convenience of flying under the radar. Crypto is perfect for them.
 
First off, it is important to distinguish between Bitcoin and "crypto". Bitcoin was fairly launched, is distributed and based on fundamental computer science breakthrough often called "proof of work". "Crypto" is all the scams that try to be better than bitcoin with the primary purpose of enriching the people who created them by hyping up a money printing machine for themselves.

Thus we cannot lump the two categories together as they have fundamentally different technological underpinnings and structures and purposes.

Criminals are often willing to accept wild fluctuations in value in return for the convenience of flying under the radar. Crypto is perfect for them.
The word "criminals" includes at least two groups of people - immoral people who commit crimes violating others rights and moral people who are deemed "criminals" by criminals in power.

Bitcoin benefits both groups, it's true, but there is no possibility to have a form of money that benefits only one of these groups without violating the rights of the other.

So if you think this is a win here, you're wrong. It's fantastic that we finally have a form of money that is outside the grasp of the criminals who run governments.

The biggest criminals of all are always governments. Serve them at your peril.

And crypto boosters are far too conspiratorial about the evil intentions of banks and governments.
The evil intentions of banks and governments are simply history. Read The Creature from Jekyll Island. It's not even debatable.

And no crypto allows for the supply to be adjusted to fit economic conditions. And having the correct amount of money is critical. As noted above (and seen in the Great Depression) too little money is as disastrous as too much. This is what crypto boosters fail to understand. They dismiss the study of economics because it's not perfect. I like to point out that scientists don't know everything, but pseudoscientists don't know anything. Something similar applies here: Economists don't know everything about how an economy functions, but crypto enthusiasts don't know anything about how an economy functions.

A central entity "adjusting supply" is not necessary, but it is sold as an excuse for stealing money from poor people so that people like you will defend this theft. The Great Depression proves monetary economists right. The Great Depression was a result of the banning of gold, which effectively was the theft of the entire economies savings.

We don't dismiss economics, you do. And if we were wrong you would make your arguments in terms of economics, not claims ab out "enthusiasts don't know anything about how an economy functions".

Our economic science explains everything that has happened in the past 100 years and more, and is capable of predicting the future. The "theory" you seem to subscribe to has failed constantly that past 100 years and cannot predict the future accurately. The ability to predict outcomes is a key marker of a science.


The very thing that crypto enthusiasts love about crypto is the thing that makes it utterly useless as currency: The lack of regulation.

This is kinda silly. Historically all the most successful forms of money "lacked regulation" as they were "regulated" by the nature of reality-- from sea shells to salt to gold, for good or bad, all of these were successful (and not) due to the nature of reality, and not governments involvement. And yet when you look at the history of the money you claim is required to be "useful as a currency" you consistently see the same thing- debasement, theft, inflation, collapse.
Not to mention the intentional fraud, theft, and embezzlement.

Twice, people have managed to charge purchases to my credit card. I called the bank and got all my money back. If I forget my password I can go to the bank, demonstrate my identity, and regain access. Crypto has none of that. It's an easy vehicle for speculation, but it's a zero-sum game: You only make money when somebody else is willing to put in even more money.

This was a funny pairing-- talking about "intentional fraud" and then talking about how you were defrauded in a way that is impossible with Bitcoin. Literally every bitcoin transaction requires demonstrating your identity (via private keys.)

As for speculation this is not an accurate description of how markets work. It is not a zero sum game because there is far more money outside of bitcoin than in it currently. If all the money were in bitcoin already and we were on a bitcoin standard, then bitcoin would be at about $5M each.

The only bet you are making when you buy bitcoin is that it is going to keep heading towards that price and you want to get it before everyone else realizes it too.
 
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Summarizing that insanely long post, by correcting the conclusion:


The only bet you are making when you buy bitcoin is that you will find a greater fool to sell it to for even more who hasn't yet figured out it has an intrinsic value of 0 since it has nothing whatsoever backing it.... on top of the myriad flaws already mentioned that make it absolutely garbage for use as actual currency.


The bit about "better for fraud" was especially hilarious. The only "proof of identity" a private key demonstrates is "has a copy of a password"

But more relevant to the ACTUAL FRAUD PROBLEM is "You have literally no way to get the money back after it is sent, even if you didn't intend to send it, or you got defrauded by the person receiving it"

Which is untrue of actual money, where you have robust legal means to get back money obtained by fraud.
 
First off, it is important to distinguish between Bitcoin and "crypto". Bitcoin was fairly launched, is distributed and based on fundamental computer science breakthrough often called "proof of work". "Crypto" is all the scams that try to be better than bitcoin with the primary purpose of enriching the people who created them by hyping up a money printing machine for themselves.

Thus we cannot lump the two categories together as they have fundamentally different technological underpinnings and structures and purposes.


The word "criminals" includes at least two groups of people - immoral people who commit crimes violating others rights and moral people who are deemed "criminals" by criminals in power.

Bitcoin benefits both groups, it's true, but there is no possibility to have a form of money that benefits only one of these groups without violating the rights of the other.

So if you think this is a win here, you're wrong. It's fantastic that we finally have a form of money that is outside the grasp of the criminals who run governments.

The biggest criminals of all are always governments. Serve them at your peril.


The evil intentions of banks and governments are simply history. Read The Creature from Jekyll Island. It's not even debatable.



A central entity "adjusting supply" is not necessary, but it is sold as an excuse for stealing money from poor people so that people like you will defend this theft. The Great Depression proves monetary economists right. The Great Depression was a result of the banning of gold, which effectively was the theft of the entire economies savings.

We don't dismiss economics, you do. And if we were wrong you would make your arguments in terms of economics, not claims ab out "enthusiasts don't know anything about how an economy functions".

Our economic science explains everything that has happened in the past 100 years and more, and is capable of predicting the future. The "theory" you seem to subscribe to has failed constantly that past 100 years and cannot predict the future accurately. The ability to predict outcomes is a key marker of a science.




This is kinda silly. Historically all the most successful forms of money "lacked regulation" as they were "regulated" by the nature of reality-- from sea shells to salt to gold, for good or bad, all of these were successful (and not) due to the nature of reality, and not governments involvement. And yet when you look at the history of the money you claim is required to be "useful as a currency" you consistently see the same thing- debasement, theft, inflation, collapse.


This was a funny pairing-- talking about "intentional fraud" and then talking about how you were defrauded in a way that is impossible with Bitcoin. Literally every bitcoin transaction requires demonstrating your identity (via private keys.)

As for speculation this is not an accurate description of how markets work. It is not a zero sum game because there is far more money outside of bitcoin than in it currently. If all the money were in bitcoin already and we were on a bitcoin standard, then bitcoin would be at about $5M each.

The only bet you are making when you buy bitcoin is that it is going to keep heading towards that price and you want to get it before everyone else realizes it too.

I disagree with pretty much everything above. But arguing at this point would just be repeating everything I've already posted. So rather than doing that, I'll just say, Pretend I've re-posted all my above posts. :rolleyes:
 
The only bet you are making when you buy bitcoin is that you will find a greater fool to sell it to for even more who hasn't yet figured out it has an intrinsic value of 0 since it has nothing whatsoever backing it.... on top of the myriad flaws already mentioned that make it absolutely garbage for use as actual currency.
Its intrinsic value is that it can be transacted on the blockchain and that there is a limited amount of these tokens. Basically a currency that can be teleported between different users/countries without being able to copy the token.

The arguments that Bitcoin no workie because no intrisic value might have been a plausible one in 2008-2012 etc. Lots of people made it. Ten years of explosive increase in usage later it just feels old. If it didn't predict what happened in the 10 years after why would it predict what will happen in the next 10 years? If it doesn't have any predictive value then why bother with it?

I recommend that newcomers listen to those old debates and presentation before their 5minute thought can disprove something that millions of people use already, that brilliant people have spent decades on. Here is a good start:
 
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Its intrinsic value is that it can be transacted on the blockchain and that there is a limited amount of these tokens.


But you can make up literally infinite other crypto "currencies" of which that's ALSO true.

None of those have any inherent value either.

I can create a limited number of my autograph too. "Limited amount" is not inherent value unless it's actually GOOD for something.

I suppose the autograph at least has value in that you could burn it for warmth :)


The arguments that Bitcoin no workie because no intrisic value might have been a plausible one in 2008-2012 etc.

Or today.

Nothing has really changed other than over 10 years later it's still not useful as money compared to, ya know, actual money. If anything time has shown us how RIGHT the people who said crypto isn't replacing real money in any useful way were.

They have to instead keep finding new crypto-adjacent scams like NFTs to keep the grift going.



Ten years of explosive increase in usage later it just feels old. If it didn't predict what happened in the 10 years after why would it predict what will happen in the next 10 years? If it doesn't have any predictive value then why bother with it?

Pointing out "this has no inherent value, is objectively worse as a currency than actual money, and eventually folks will realize that" doesn't have a specific expiration date.

Some scams last a long time.
 
But you can make up literally infinite other crypto "currencies" of which that's ALSO true.

None of those have any inherent value either.

I can create a limited number of my autograph too. "Limited amount" is not inherent value unless it's actually GOOD for something.

I suppose the autograph at least has value in that you could burn it for warmth :)




Or today.

Nothing has really changed other than over 10 years later it's still not useful as money compared to, ya know, actual money. If anything time has shown us how RIGHT the people who said crypto isn't replacing real money in any useful way were.

They have to instead keep finding new crypto-adjacent scams like NFTs to keep the grift going.





Pointing out "this has no inherent value, is objectively worse as a currency than actual money, and eventually folks will realize that" doesn't have a specific expiration date.

Some scams last a long time.
Same old arguments. If something is useful and has limited supply it has value. Your autograph is not useful to many people and doesn't have a limited supply, thus it's not valuable. Bitcoins are useful because they allow people to transact on the bitcoin network and because lots of people want to do this they are useful. Nobody wants to transact on a random clone, making them want to transact on network is hard...

So much have changed over the last 10 years. Look at this graph:
Screenshot 2023-03-28 at 10.33.50.png


Clearly the use of Bitcoin has increased. Or look at Ethereum, clearly the amount of activity has increased over the last 10 years:
Screenshot 2023-03-28 at 10.35.58.png


You may say that it's just spam. Well if it is, it's expensive spam as every transaction cost money... We can argue if it has value or not, but clearly lots of people are paying to use it, for whatever stupid or good reason they have. And its use has been increasing over the last 10 years. So any argument that said that users using it would not grow because no intrinsic value clearly failed to explain the past. And if people are paying to use it, imo that seems to indicate that they find it useful.
 
Same old arguments.

And same old lack of useful replies to them :)


If something is useful and has limited supply it has value.

Right.

But bitcoin is not broadly useful. It does nothing you can't otherwise do better with other means.

Which is probably why like 99%+ of its actual transactions are not as currency. Becuse it's inherently worse at that job than actual currency

It's useful for crime and for bubble/pyramid type speculation-- which are what has kept it from zero but aren't things most would find broadly useful.

Unless you're well positioned in the pyramid, or a criminal, I suppose--- then it's great!


Your autograph is not useful to many people and doesn't have a limited supply

Of course it has a limited supply. If I say "only X number will ever exist" I can absolutely make that true. Just like BTC can say "only X will ever exist" and make that true.

And in both cases the actual circulating # will be lower- but nobody can know how MUCH lower.


So much have changed over the last 10 years. Look at this graph:
View attachment 921947

Clearly the use of Bitcoin has increased.

No, the MOVEMENT has increased. There's nothing telling us if ANY of that movement was useful or simply a combo of crime, fraud, and greater fools being found.

And since those are the primary "uses" of crypto vs actual money it seems likely that # combined is pretty high :)

You may say that it's just spam. Well if it is, it's expensive spam as every transaction cost money...

And more than transacting with real money.

Which is just one reason why BTC is so awful as "currency"

Not only does it not do anything you couldn't already do better and cheaper with actual money, it's objectively WORSE as money than money is for the litany of reasons already explained.

Which is why so little of the transactions appear to be people BUYING (legal) things with it. It's really bad for that use.


So any argument that said that users using it would not grow because no intrinsic value clearly failed to explain the past.

Of course I didn't say that-- so you're just building a strawman to knock down now.

Transaction of worthless things during a bubble always rises over time until the bubble pops-- that's the point. You hype the thing to inflate value and sell it to the next Greater Fool in the chain and each sucker/buyer has to then hope he can keep the cycle growing until he has dumped his to the next guy. Plus here you have the "value add" of criminals liking it for various things.

At least Tulips were pretty to look at, and beanie babies could eventually find use as chew toys for pets. Crypto not so much.
 
Which is why so little of the transactions appear to be people BUYING (legal) things with it. It's really bad for that use.
I don't have any good stats for these kind of transactions. I myself know that I have used it for legal stuff 50+ times and I found the experience quite useful. How many times have you used it? What was your experience?

For example I have used crypto(bitcoin and ethereum) to pay for computer hardware at newegg, paid for flight tickets, bought vpn and zbigz, paid at cafés, restaruant and bars, paid my monthly rental, settled bills with friends, got local currency in a different country etc. Imo the experience has been very nice using for example Jaxx.

Basically I go to the restaurant, at the cashier they generate a QR with all the details, I scan it with Jaxx, verify the amount, press send, they see it in their app and it's done as they trust that it will be confirmed. If I want to get paid I generate a qr code and show it to my friend or generate a link and send the link, they click it, verify the amount and press send.
 
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... The arguments that Bitcoin no workie because no intrisic value
...

The reason BTC and other cryptos are useless as money is NOT their lack of intrinsic value. Dollar bills have no intrinsic value either. The reason BTC and other crypto are useless as currency is that their value is unpredictable. A person who gets paid for 8 hours of work wants to know that their pay will buy a known amount of goods. This is not the case for an unregulated currency.

... I have used crypto(bitcoin and ethereum) to pay for computer hardware at newegg, paid for flight tickets, bought vpn and zbigz, paid at cafés, restaruant and bars, paid my monthly rental, settled bills with friends, got local currency in a different country etc. Imo the experience has been very nice ...

It's a gimmick. Venders know that a few people are so wedded to the idea of crypto that they'll patronize businesses that accept it. So they accept it, and then IMMEDIATELY convert it to real money. And they charge you for the privilege in the exchange rate when they set the price in crypto compared to the price in dollars (or the national currency of their country.)

Those venders are not operating in crypto. They're operating in dollars (in the U.S.) or in their own national currency elsewhere. But their businesses operate in dollars (or other hard currency) and, for a sufficiently large fee to justify the bother to them, they'll accept your crypto, and immediately convert it back to hard currency.

Very nearly the entirety of BTC and other crypto transactions are speculators buying and selling, and criminal transactions for such things as drugs, slavery, and ransomware. And all of it is done at an obscene cost in energy generated from carbon-producing fossil fuels. Crypto is a scam for producing human misery and global warming, as much of the computation is done in China run on subsidized coal-fired electricity.
 
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Disinflation is a word that should be removed from our vocabulary. All it does is mislead people.
Disinflation is useful when talking about Bitcoin, because classical economics actually makes sense.

The term originates from the Latin inflare (to blow into or inflate) and was initially used in America in 1838 with regard to inflating the currency.[17] The term was used "not in reference to something that happens to prices, but as something that happens to a paper currency".[18] The resulting imbalance between the quantity of money and the amount needed for trade caused prices to increase. Over time, the term inflation has evolved to refer to increases in the price level; an increase in the money supply may be called monetary inflation to distinguish it from rising prices, which for clarity may be called "price inflation".[18]

As for talking about inflation as CPI which is some arbitrary and rapidly changing definition it makes less sense. And imo the current central banks are just plain awful. They say that their goal is "price stability" which they interpret as 2% "inflation/year. But what does that even mean? As a hypothetical to prove a point: If they accidentally prints 100% more money on 31st of dec and then removes those by a -50% in the 1st of jan, what would their goal be for the rest of the year? +2%? +104%? It's the latter but even they would probably see that the former makes more sense...

Or a less hypothetical example if they run 10% inflation for 3 years, what's the goal for for the next year? -20% or +2%? Imo it should be the former, not the latter. But here it's less obv what's the right thing...
 
...did you just quote something to explain the difference between monetary and price inflation in paragraph 1.... and then go right ahead and confuse the two in paragraph 2?

Because either you did that, or paragraph 2 makes no sense.
(nor does the idea of anybody "accidentally" print 100% more money while we're at it)
 
...did you just quote something to explain the difference between monetary and price inflation in paragraph 1.... and then go right ahead and confuse the two in paragraph 2?

Because either you did that, or paragraph 2 makes no sense.
(nor does the idea of anybody "accidentally" print 100% more money while we're at it)
It's a hypothetical to prove a point.

And yeah, I was using their definition to prove how they would not follow their stated goal.
 
The arguments that Bitcoin no workie because no intrisic value might have been a plausible one in 2008-2012 etc. Lots of people made it. Ten years of explosive increase in usage later it just feels old.
The "no intrinsic value" argument is confused and backwards. Every form of money has been something that had little to no "intrinsic value" beyond the things that make it money.

Rothbard laid out these characteristics in "What has the government done to our money" (available free at What Has Government Done to Our Money? | Murray N. Rothbard )
They are:
Hard to counterfiet
divisable
doesn't spoil
fungible
portable

Gold is valuable ONLY because it has the above characteristics. Jewelry is made out of gold because gold is valuable. Gold is not valuable because it is used for jewelry.
 
But you can make up literally infinite other crypto "currencies" of which that's ALSO true.

False for two reasons. First off all of them have to compromise the features that bitcoin has in order to exist. First they are all second, meaning they are less distributed (in many cases not even distributed at all) and they do not have fair launches.

Thus every additional crypto is not scarce, in fact there have been 100,000 of them, each with millions or billions of "coins".

Not one of them has managed to increase bitcoins total supply. And none can meet, let alone beat bitcoins characteristics for distribution and hash rate.


"Limited amount" is not inherent value unless it's actually GOOD for something.

Correct, and the argument that bitcoin isn't good for anything but "finding a greater fool" is absurd. No other money can be transacted without risk of censorship, across the world, in any amount, for about $1. No other form of money lets you carry a billion dollars, or a billion sats without anyone knowing it. Etc.

Nothing has really changed other than over 10 years later it's still not useful as money compared to, ya know, actual money. If anything time has shown us how RIGHT the people who said crypto isn't replacing real money in any useful way were.

The funny thing is that billions of dollars worth of bitcoin are transacted every day, on chain. On chain transactions are not "greater fool" sales, because those happen at exchanges where the bitcoin never leaves the exchange. On top of that, you are obviously not aware of the Lightning Network which as finally, after several decades of tech companies attempting it, enabled micro transactions at scale.

They have to instead keep finding new crypto-adjacent scams like NFTs to keep the grift going.

"Bitcoin is useless because scammers created a fraud thing that has nothing to do with bitcoin"
Some scams last a long time.
The irony being, of course, that you are defending a scam which has lost %99.9999 of its value, impoverished millions and created wars that have killed hundreds of millions.

But you're not ready to face that are you?

Seriously, try making some arguments. Your long strings of unsupported assertions are trivial to rebut... and then you just make them again as if they hadn't already been disproven.