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Blogger Claims Tesla's Battery Swap a Scam

Discussion in 'Video' started by InternetDude, Jun 1, 2015.

  1. InternetDude

    InternetDude Member

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    #1 InternetDude, Jun 1, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 13, 2016
    Video @ Tesla Mirrors Battery Swap Scam - Autoline Daily Insight - YouTube

     
  2. J1mbo

    J1mbo Member

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    I thought battery swapping was still being tested in a closed group, and if you wanted to take part you could put in a request?

    Certainly don't remember seeing any announcement saying anyone could just turn up and swap whenever they liked.
     
  3. RiverBrick

    RiverBrick Active Member

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    Yes, and beta with NDA.

    The way they title it, ALL of TM's ZEV credits come from battery swapping. They should talk about hydrogen "fast"-refueling credits where the industry claims three minutes, but in reality it's closer to ten minutes if the station is actually working and unoccupied when you arrive.
     
  4. AZC

    AZC Member

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    There is no NDA. Confirmed by Ricardo Reyes to Daily Kanban.
    Tesla Battery Swap Unused Over Busy Holiday Weekend - Daily Kanban

    By the way: the title uses a conservative estimate ($100M) of how much Tesla has made off the battery swap. It doesn't imply all ZEV credits are thanks to the swap (obviously those credits have made a lot more than $100M).
     
  5. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Plase substantiate your claim. By all means.
     
  6. AZC

    AZC Member

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    That there is no NDA is included in the Daily Kanban article I linked to; they talked to Reyes. That $100M is a conservative estimate, well, just look at Tesla's California sales in 2012 and 2013, assign 3 extra (swap-generated) credits per car and check how much the credits sell for. This estimate excludes credits earned outside California or after 2013.
     
  7. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Do you have any solid information at all about what type og ZEV credits Tesla has been recieving and reselling? AFAIK this is not public information, and neither is Tesla giving any more detailed information that their total revenue from ZEV sales. It seems you are assuming they have recieved and sold credits from swapping (as you call it "swap-generated") but what are you basing your assumption on???
     
  8. AndY1

    AndY1 Member

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  9. smac

    smac Active Member

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    Scam maybe too strong a word. Playing the ZEV system would be a fairer assessment.

    In my view, it's also the reason the 70D was introduced.

    The recent pertinent changes to the ZEV classification system, were:
    - Sub 10 minute "charge"
    - 275 mile range

    I suspect both were aimed at promoting hydrogen more than anything else. As was rightly been pointed out in the video, it's about the "ability" for the car to be able to do something, not for it actually to necessarily do it. (Technically this isn't quite the whole picture, there is a sliding scale in the new ZEV qualifying classifications 6-10 : 6 being capable, the remainder being based on usage across a % of the fleet).

    Without battery swapping the 85 couldn't fulfil the sub 10 minute part, without a 70kWh pack the Model S couldn't hit 275 miles.

    I really don't think anyone can claim ZEV credits aren't an important thing to Tesla, and in fact the threat of changes is explicitly highlighted in their SEC filings. Of course the whole thing is really opaque, and only Tesla and the other manufacturers they sell their credits to know exactly how much one credit is worth.

    I could speculate that going up 1 grade is worth whatever Tesla are paying for 10kWh of batteries. ;) :D
     
  10. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    #11 Saghost, Jun 2, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2015
    If I recall correctly, battery swap was a two credit swing - the car was worth either 5 or 7 credits from the basic statistics, and 7 or 9 with swap.

    If that's correct and hasn't been changed recently, it means the maximum possible value of battery swap to Tesla is $10k per car ( companies that don't earn/buy enough credits are fined $5k per missing credit, which sets a hard upper bound on the market.)

    Actual sales prices and volumes are private, but what I've read suggests fewer are being sold and for less money in more recent quarters.
    Walter
     
  11. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Elon was asked on the last call by bearish analyst Lovallo about this. He got pretty irritated I could hear, since ZEV credits are not important to Tesla's financial. I believe his exact words were:

    Operator
    Yes, sir. Next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead your line is now open.

    John D. Lovallo - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
    Hey, guys. Thanks very much for taking my call as well. First question is, do you guys earn 4 ZEV credits or 9 ZEV credits per vehicle and how many vehicles are participating in your battery swap beta program?

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - Chief Technology Officer
    The amount of ZEV credits we earn depends on the size of the pack, different for what we're doing for the 60 versus 85, and now the new ones at 70. That has been varying over time, the amount of ZEV credits we earn. So, I'll need to confirm that before I give the official number here.

    Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
    I mean, the ZEV credits thing is not like – I mean, it sort of moves things about like 2%. It's like not super material. So I'm not sure what the point of your question is.

    John D. Lovallo - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
    Well, yeah, here's the point of the question is that assuming that you guys sell 10,000 vehicles in ZEV states this year, that would mean that you would need 400 vehicles involved in this battery swap program, if you assume that each of them swap 25 times each, so a minimum of 400 vehicles. So, I'm just curious if there are 400 vehicles involved in the battery swap program?

    Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
    Well, I mean, you do realize that ZEV credits don't sell for 100 ZEVs per $1. They sell for like $0.50 or sometimes less. And there are not always customers for the ZEV credits. So...

    John D. Lovallo - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
    Yeah. I'm just asking about in terms of what you guys are actually earning per vehicle. Okay. And I guess the next...

    Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
    It's not a big deal. Yeah. And as more of our production goes overseas, obviously, there are no ZEV states overseas and as our sales increase outside of California, also that – or Canada there, but those are not ZEV states, so this is like, the ZEV stuff is like an increasingly small part of the picture over time.

    John D. Lovallo - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
    Okay. That's fair. Go ahead.

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - Chief Technology Officer
    We do have hundreds of vehicles in the battery swap pilot program...

    Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
    Yeah.

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - Chief Technology Officer
    ...it's not like 10 or something like that, it's hundreds of vehicles.

    Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
    Yeah, we've steadily increased the invitation list. We just found like there just is not a lot of interest in people doing pack swap. So, we make the invitations and we get a very small percentage of that actually take us up on the invitation.

    John D. Lovallo - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
    Right. The only point is there's a difference of five ZEV credits per vehicle, that was the only point.


    Tesla Motors (TSLA) Elon Reeve Musk on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
     
  12. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Exactly. CARB changed the rules to give Toyota's Mirage more credits and to try to penalize Tesla, because they're so stupidly obsessed with fast-refueling, even though Tesla and GM both have approaches that dramatically reduce the _need_ for fast refueling in the first place. Don't blame people for playing by stupid rules.

    The irony is that for BEVs fast battery swapping does have great value, but to simplify and lower the cost of replacing batteries. Battery swapping capability will come anyway with high volume BEVs.
     
  13. CUBldr97

    CUBldr97 Member

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    Interesting article. Does anyone have actual experience with battery swapping? Or received the "invitation" to participate? How does that work with the 8 yr warranty? How do you know the year of your battery you get when the swap occurs?

    Seems like with battery swapping the 8 yr warranty goes out the window...
     
  14. WarpedOne

    WarpedOne Supreme Premier

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    Elon:
    This battery swapping thing is similar to range anxiety. It is important until you start using your real EV even when you find out you have little use of battery swapping. There are hundreds of people in the pilot program and still Harris Ranch SS is mostly deserted. No long lines of people waiting to swap.
     
  15. Kbsilver

    Kbsilver Member

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    I thought the idea was you would get your original battery back at some point or be charged a very steep fee. The precharged "loaner" pack was only to be kept for a short period.
     
  16. MSEV

    MSEV Member

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    My understanding was you swap out one way on a trip, and swap back to your original battery on the way home, so you always end up with your own battery.
     
  17. David99

    David99 Active Member

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    I think every vehicle owner wants the ability to 'charge' very fast. It is fair to give credit to a system that recharges in 10 min vs 60 min.
     
  18. AZC

    AZC Member

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    'Does anyone have actual experience with battery swapping? Or received the "invitation" to participate?'

    Careful, or they'll accuse you of spreading FUD.
     
  19. efusco

    efusco Moderator - Model S & X forums

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    If no one responds do you win?
    Maybe several who have, are under NDA (even if not all), and maybe those who have don't participate or wouldn't bother with a click-bait thread like this.
     

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