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BMW Active E
- Thread starter dpeilow
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- Electric Vehicles
In retrospect I take the point that the MINI E was a test car rather than delivering a car that you can keep, so that's a fair point. As for 1.5 reliability, I'd say equal. The 100 mile point is just a decision based on price/performance. I'm sure they could stuff more batteries in and sell it for more money but the 100 mile EV seems to be the sweet spot right now at this price point, today.
BMW are just too big and this 'i' program is too big to fail in BMW; from were I see it. If a BBC 'donkey's behind' can pummel the image of the electric car by driving a MINI E from London to Edinburgh (idiot), which we already know to be a prototype, imaging what impact an actual journalist would have if faced with a car from BMW that was in any way less than a 1-series? When BMW launches an EV, it has to be brilliant. That and imagine you're Tesla and you have to re-vamp the PEM fan or release a new firmware - that's a pain, that's hundreds of cars to update. Fast forward 6 months into a BMW global EV launch and you see, you just can't have that kind of discovery so you have to be right first time.
I'd love to keep my MINI E, I'll probably love to keep the ActiveE (though less so I predict) but I'm ok with the delay if I can tell people with confidence that the i3 will be great.
BMW are just too big and this 'i' program is too big to fail in BMW; from were I see it. If a BBC 'donkey's behind' can pummel the image of the electric car by driving a MINI E from London to Edinburgh (idiot), which we already know to be a prototype, imaging what impact an actual journalist would have if faced with a car from BMW that was in any way less than a 1-series? When BMW launches an EV, it has to be brilliant. That and imagine you're Tesla and you have to re-vamp the PEM fan or release a new firmware - that's a pain, that's hundreds of cars to update. Fast forward 6 months into a BMW global EV launch and you see, you just can't have that kind of discovery so you have to be right first time.
I'd love to keep my MINI E, I'll probably love to keep the ActiveE (though less so I predict) but I'm ok with the delay if I can tell people with confidence that the i3 will be great.
Norbert
TSLA will win
My guess is that for BMW it is more important to be ready when the time comes, than to be an early player. That's fine with me since in 2012 we'll have quite a few EVs already, and I'd think it allows Tesla to build up market share easier. Which I think is important for EVs in general, since I'd be afraid that without Tesla, auto manufacturers might allow EV progress to slow down or even come to a halt.
Perhaps a few more batteries, but Tesla is already developing their know-how about high-density, high-torque power-trains into an art, while others still "stuff batteries in". That's fine if you are happy with a range of 100 miles, but don't forget that 300 miles is a factor of 3x, and I recall comments by JB Straubel that 300 miles wouldn't even be the upper limit within the Model S design, but is a sweet spot for them. Also, I think in the Model S many more things are done to be more cost-efficient, for example, and so don't immediately show the progress in power-trains they made since the Roadster. I believe that Tesla is even more unique than is visible currently. Many seem to think that big auto manufacturers will catch up easily once they start throwing money at it, but I wouldn't take that as a given. Quite a few industry experts still are very doubtful Tesla can be bring the Model S to market *and* make profit. I think that is not only because Tesla is still a small company, but also because they are far ahead in their EV technology, compared to what large auto manufacturers, and those close to them, tell these experts.
Perhaps a few more batteries, but Tesla is already developing their know-how about high-density, high-torque power-trains into an art, while others still "stuff batteries in". That's fine if you are happy with a range of 100 miles, but don't forget that 300 miles is a factor of 3x, and I recall comments by JB Straubel that 300 miles wouldn't even be the upper limit within the Model S design, but is a sweet spot for them. Also, I think in the Model S many more things are done to be more cost-efficient, for example, and so don't immediately show the progress in power-trains they made since the Roadster. I believe that Tesla is even more unique than is visible currently. Many seem to think that big auto manufacturers will catch up easily once they start throwing money at it, but I wouldn't take that as a given. Quite a few industry experts still are very doubtful Tesla can be bring the Model S to market *and* make profit. I think that is not only because Tesla is still a small company, but also because they are far ahead in their EV technology, compared to what large auto manufacturers, and those close to them, tell these experts.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I've seen the defenders of the companies that are slagging along say this. They say that once the companies that are trying hard (like Tesla and Nissan) make the technology "ready", the other companies can just buy the tech from third parties an skip all the expensive development, while still being competitive.
They are forgetting a couple of points, that we can see happened in the hybrid industry and is already happening in the early BEV market.
1) Public perception:
For example, most major car companies now have at least one hybrid model on the market, but people still immediately think of the Prius when talking about hybrids, and it's still the best selling hybrid. Nissan is trying to build up the Leaf as the BEV version of the Prius.
2) Patents:
Just look at how the patents held up the nimh battery industry, even to this day it can't be used to make BEVs unless the owner of the patents allowed it. Another example, is Toyota signing licensing agreements for their Hybrid Synergy Drive. The relevant point is that the patents Tesla is holding for their pack design will make it harder for other car companies to take the same approach without paying licensing fees.
3) Exclusivity and joint-venture deals:
We know Tesla is working closely with Panasonic on battery cells and Panasonic has also invested in Tesla. Think has an exclusive deal with EnerDel. Nissan has a joint-venture with NEC. Mitsubishi is working with GS Yuasa and Magna to build battery plants. Daimler is joint-ventured with Evonik. This means by the time the tech is mature, there is no guarantee a car company without significant battery investments can get batteries from these joint-ventures, and even if they do, it's guaranteed to be at a higher price than the partner car company paid.
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Mycroft
Life happens
#1 isn't that big a deal. The big boys do know how to market and build on their own brands.
#2 is why I'm investing in TSLA. The only way they won't make money is if they're 10 years ahead of their time and EVs don't take off until a replacement technology to Li-Ion ends up being used.
#3 isn't a problem because there are plenty of Li-Ion companies. In fact, there are so many that some are in danger of going under from the glut in the market.
#2 is why I'm investing in TSLA. The only way they won't make money is if they're 10 years ahead of their time and EVs don't take off until a replacement technology to Li-Ion ends up being used.
#3 isn't a problem because there are plenty of Li-Ion companies. In fact, there are so many that some are in danger of going under from the glut in the market.
smorgasbord
Active Member
You've all read The Innovator's Dilemma I trust. If not, get a copy - you've got a wonderful learn from history lesson ahead of you.
Tesla has a disruptive technology. By definition, that's something that isn't as good in some areas as the existing technology, but is better in others. If a company can make a product with the disruptive technology that appeals to some set of people who like the new advantages enough to buy it, then that company might be able to continue to improve the technology so that it eventually gets as good as the existing technology, thus replacing it in the market.
The history lesson is that established successful companies became successful by listening to their customers. They have anti-bodies to reject things that don't make their existing customers happy. The Disruptive Technology is therefore rejected until it's been developed enough, but by then it's too late and the new companies win.
What's interesting is that even companies aware of this have big trouble not falling into the trap. They have to keep their existing customers happy to stay in business, but they also have to invest in the new technology as if their whole company was dependent on it. That's usually too big a commitment, especially for publicly owned companies. From Blockbuster to Netflix, Nokia to Apple, and steam powered excavators to hydraulic excavators, even companies that tried to get onto the new technology all failed are are shadows of their former selves.
So, assuming you believe the EVs are a disruptive technology in automobiles, how does an established company like BMW avoid that? Is the miniE, activeE, i3 line enough of an investment? Remember, Blockbuster did online DVD rentals. Nokia made smartphones, and all the steam excavator companies adopted hyraulics. But, that didn't save them. Nissan is making a big push with the Leaf. Will their efforts be enough? Hard to say at this point in time.
But by the time BMW comes out with its 100 mile i3, I believe Tesla will have a 400 mile range competitor at about the same price (the gen-3 line). With tens of thousands of EVs on the road with hundreds of millions of miles of experience, Tesla will have a huge advantage over the 200 EVs and millions of miles of BMW. To me, that doesn't look so good for BMW (and I've owned 5 BMWs over the years so historically I've been a big fan).
Tesla has a disruptive technology. By definition, that's something that isn't as good in some areas as the existing technology, but is better in others. If a company can make a product with the disruptive technology that appeals to some set of people who like the new advantages enough to buy it, then that company might be able to continue to improve the technology so that it eventually gets as good as the existing technology, thus replacing it in the market.
The history lesson is that established successful companies became successful by listening to their customers. They have anti-bodies to reject things that don't make their existing customers happy. The Disruptive Technology is therefore rejected until it's been developed enough, but by then it's too late and the new companies win.
What's interesting is that even companies aware of this have big trouble not falling into the trap. They have to keep their existing customers happy to stay in business, but they also have to invest in the new technology as if their whole company was dependent on it. That's usually too big a commitment, especially for publicly owned companies. From Blockbuster to Netflix, Nokia to Apple, and steam powered excavators to hydraulic excavators, even companies that tried to get onto the new technology all failed are are shadows of their former selves.
So, assuming you believe the EVs are a disruptive technology in automobiles, how does an established company like BMW avoid that? Is the miniE, activeE, i3 line enough of an investment? Remember, Blockbuster did online DVD rentals. Nokia made smartphones, and all the steam excavator companies adopted hyraulics. But, that didn't save them. Nissan is making a big push with the Leaf. Will their efforts be enough? Hard to say at this point in time.
But by the time BMW comes out with its 100 mile i3, I believe Tesla will have a 400 mile range competitor at about the same price (the gen-3 line). With tens of thousands of EVs on the road with hundreds of millions of miles of experience, Tesla will have a huge advantage over the 200 EVs and millions of miles of BMW. To me, that doesn't look so good for BMW (and I've owned 5 BMWs over the years so historically I've been a big fan).
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not even close. I3 is coming out in Q3-13 for about $45K - less than a year after the 160 mile S comes out for $57k. It will take atleast a decade more to produce a 400 mile range car for that price.
Here's the trouble: I'll believe it when I see it. More likely, BMW will start a third "test vehicle" on a small lease basis for CARB credits, instead. We've all seen predicted release dates pass by, and a claim of Q3 2013 seems to me like a claim of "whenever".
Even if they do, they're competing with the Leaf, because they don't have the range to compete with Tesla. And the Leaf is way ahead of them already, having been able to learn from a full model year's worth of mistakes -- its 2012 model is probably going to be ahead of BMW's supposedly late-2013 model. This is still a race, a race for mindshare.
What's really amazing is that not one of the major car companies has considered the big design change Tesla made for the Model S (emptying the hood). They just can't break the old mentality.
IMHO the only established car manufacturer going all-out into EVs is the Renault/Nissan alliance. The BMW approach with several fleet tests and a sub brand appears to me like testing the water in the pool with your big toe: Still can retract if it feels uncomfortable.
But as smorgasbord points out, you cannot adapt to a disruptive technology and stay in the comfort zone all the time. There will be pains, like it was when leaving the trees.
But as smorgasbord points out, you cannot adapt to a disruptive technology and stay in the comfort zone all the time. There will be pains, like it was when leaving the trees.
Never been a huge BMW fan, so I don't care either way, but creating a sub brand and/or running test fleets is likely the best way for a huge, established company to be nimble while still protecting the brand they've built up. I think it works.
Tesla is targeted for the US in the main as well.
2012 LEAF is already here with minor changes. (Primarily a cold weather package with heaters in various places like steering wheel and seats.)
2013 LEAF, coming late next year, may see some more major changes which, at a minimum, should include a 6.6kW charger instead of 3.3kW...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't know how closely you are following the developments, but after spending hundreds of millions of $ to put up new factories, I doubt BMW will not bring out i3. From your statement about '12 Leaf, I don't think you are following the market closely at all.
Not sure it is an important consideration. In Leaf, for eg., there is no other place to put the motor, 12V battery etc. There is also the need to assemble EV & ICE on the same lines. A problem S doesn't have.
tommolog
Member
I drove the ActiveE in Munich in October. The cars there were equipt with the European standard. Only the ActiveE's destined for the US (700 of the 1,100 made) will use the J1772.
"But by the time BMW comes out with its 100 mile i3, I believe Tesla will have a 400 mile range competitor at about the same price (the gen-3 line)"
As EvNow pointed out, that's not even remotely close to the truth. The i3 will be available for sale in September 2013, at the latest October, however it's possible it may even be a few months sooner because they are actually ahead of schedule night now. BMW isn't going to be a bystander in EV's and just produce enough to satisfy CARB and CAFE requirements. Other than Nissan/Renault there isn't any major OEM that is doing more right now. They have at least four EV's in development now, not PR prototypes, cars that will see production. They have only announced the i3 & i8, but the i4 & i5 are well into development and are tentatively set to be available in 2015 & 2016 respectively. That's a new model every year starting in 2013. The i3 & i5 will have small gas range extender motors available as an option.
"Can anyone explain why BMW feels they need so many field trials (mini-E and now active-E)? What are they learning from these that companies like Tesla and Nissan, who are actually putting models out people can buy, are missing?"
Why are they still fooling around with these lease-only prototype program? Good question. They didn't make the decision to dive into the electric vehicle market until mid 2008. Any BMW vehicle takes between 4 and 6 years from concept to series production. That puts them at the earliest into late 2012/early 2013 to sell a car. The trial leases for the MINI-E and ActiveE did two things; 1) got them the CARB credits they needed, BMW has never disputed that fact. 2) allowed them to have 4 1/2 years of real world driving/testing to refine components and interact with their customers about what they like & dislike, and what they wish future EV's would have. The MINI-E fleet has logged over 9 million miles so far and the ActiveE fleet will probably do more so They'll have about 20 million test miles under their belt before they bring the i3 to market Q3 2013. Plus they got us to pay for the privilege to do their testing. Brilliant!
I still think I got the better of the deal. So far, I've had my Mini-E 30 months, I've driven it 72,000 miles and all in it's cost me $19,500 plus electricity which is about $3,400. BMW has done all the maintenance including tires & wiper blades and paid the collision & comprehensive insurance. I'll hand it back in a couple weeks when I get my ActiveE and I'm not responsible for anything(Curb rash on the wheels, dent's or scratches, excessive mileage or excessive wear & tear), just give them the keys and get my new EV.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You've certainly gotten your money's worth out of the deal, though I think BMW came out ahead with most other users. Is anyone else even close to your mileage? Oh, and welcome to the board :smile:
tommolog
Member
As far as I know, the person with the second most miles is a few hundred shy of 50k right now. There are a bunch of people in the 40's. I have a 50amp EVSE where I work so between that and my home EVSE I can basically drive all I need to. My round trip commute is 63 miles and I drive a lot for work. My car is either driving or charging 90% of the time so this program was great, I got to really use the hell out of it and not worry about buying a new pack in four or five years.
By the time I actually buy an i3(which I will probably do, but I may also add a model S to the garage shortly after) I'll have driven BMW's EV's 130,000+ miles. That would have probably pretty much used up a pack if I bought an EV so the unlimited mileage of the MINI-E and ActiveE programs really work well for me.
By the time I actually buy an i3(which I will probably do, but I may also add a model S to the garage shortly after) I'll have driven BMW's EV's 130,000+ miles. That would have probably pretty much used up a pack if I bought an EV so the unlimited mileage of the MINI-E and ActiveE programs really work well for me.
tommolog
Member
First you need to live in one of the participating markets: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Sacramento, NY/NJ and Boston as well as select areas in the state of Connecticut. If you do you can apply to lease one when applications open to the public which will be shortly after the New Year. It costs $2,250 down and $499/month for 24 months and has unlimited mileage. If you are interested, sign up for updates at the BMW ActiveE website and they will notify you when applications open.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
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