even if you (optimistically IMO) believe that its 90% or even 95% of the way to 100% automation, that's only roughly half [of the way there]
It's so, so, so much worse. Talking about "% of the time" is the worst possible metric because it betrays the implicit logarithmic nature of the statement.
Every 1 : 1,000 minutes the system fails: "This works 99.9% of the time."
Every 1: 100,000,000 minutes the system fails: "The system works 99.999999% of the time."
A <0.1% improvement means a 1,000x or 100,000% improvement.
Tesla says their drivers without autopilot are being involved in an accident every 2 million miles. If we assume half of the time they're at fault. That means Tesla humans make a fault every 4 million miles.
If we thought that FSD Beta was 10x less safe than a person that's the difference between FSD being 99.999975% reliable (Human) and 99.99975% reliable.
Likely FSD City Streets is probably at least 10,000x less safe than a human. Even if Tesla the distance between predicted accidents by 50% every 6 months...
log 10,000 / log 150% = 11 years.
(1.5^22.7 = 10,000)
Personally, I won't take the refund because I can't wait to see how Tesla plans to upgrade my car to stay up to date over the next 2-20 years for every necessary update.