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#1,221
One possible future:
  1. Deal on Ireland gets done but doesn't impact economy much
  2. Starmer gets in
  3. Starmer gives Scotland a referendum
  4. Scexit starts
  5. Scotland ditches pound and builds Hadrian's wall 2.0
  6. Scottish economy tanks - EU reject bid
  7. Tories get back in because Starmer won't mention brexit
  8. Pro EU Labour win 4 years later
  9. Britons reject referendum due to Euro and Schengen
  10. UK, Canada, US and Australia are founding members of the World Union - motto is ever closer
 
#1,222
Buckminster said:
One possible future:
  1. Deal on Ireland gets done but doesn't impact economy much
  2. Starmer gets in
  3. Starmer gives Scotland a referendum
  4. Scexit starts
  5. Scotland ditches pound and builds Hadrian's wall 2.0
  6. Scottish economy tanks - EU reject bid
  7. Tories get back in because Starmer won't mention brexit
  8. Pro EU Labour win 4 years later
  9. Britons reject referendum due to Euro and Schengen
  10. UK, Canada, US and Australia are founding members of the World Union - motto is ever closer
Click to expand...
  1. 2023: Deal on Ireland gets done but doesn't impact economy much [maybe, see 5 below as this pre-cooks post-IndyRef settlement outcome]
  2. 2024: Starmer gets in [as leader of minority government, not a coalition deal]
  3. 2025: Starmer gives Scotland a referendum [because otherwise SNP brings down Starmer]
  4. 2026: Scexit starts [after IndyRef2 won by SNP]
  5. 2027: Scotland ditches pound and builds Hadrian's wall 2.0 [economy copes just about; Scotland adopts GBP as interim currency but no banking union; border arrangements mimic NI-GB-EI border arrangement]
  6. 2028: Scottish economy tanks - EU reject bid [application to EU accepted for rapid entry alongside Ukraine; switches to Euro; but Scotland stays part of STA (i.e. not Schengen)]
  7. 2028: Tories get back in because Starmer won't mention brexit; [GB economy in tatters, GB pushed out of UN P5 seat and gives up nuclear weapons due to another sterling crisis]
  8. 2032: Pro EU Labour win 4 years later [NI votes for Reunification; serious England constitutional reform starts, Wales feels awkward]
  9. 2034: Britons reject referendum due to Euro and Schengen [England votes Rejoin, Wales digs deeper hole to hide in]
  10. UK, Canada, US and Australia are founding members of the World Union - motto is ever closer
  11. 2035: STA (Single Travel Area) subsumed into Schengen, England adopts Euro
 
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#1,223
As usual a good Chris Grey blog

Three years of failure

<a rel="me" href="https://mastodon.online/@ChrisGrey">Mastodon</a>
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

- Brexit has lost the public relations battle
- the failure of Brexiters to convert their referendum victory into a stable consensus,
- the context of it has changed. In particular, the debate about Brexit is now inseparable from the next General Election, and the, at least at present, languishing prospects of a Tory victory. The Brexiters are scared that, as a result, time is running out for them. That inflects their position on things like, especially, the Retained EU Law (REUL) Bill, with the idea that this may be the last chance to embed de-alignment from the EU, and the Northern Ireland Protocol negotiations.
- Brexiters increasing fear of the Labour Party
- What matters now is what underlies all of the commentary from every point on the Brexit spectrum, and that is the opinion polling. The headline polls continue to show a very clear view that Britain was wrong to leave the EU (54%) rather than right (34%). Digging beneath that reveals a fascinating array of issues, of which perhaps the most important (though also most predictable) is the demographics of opposition to Brexit. Opinion polls also show a clear lead for re-joining the EU if there were another referendum (by 63% to 37%, though note this excludes ‘don’t knows’). That doesn’t mean that another referendum is in the offing, or that this would be the result (or that the EU would re-admit us), but it does show just how comprehensively Brexit has failed in the estimation of the public.
 
#1,224
Brexit causes collapse in European research funding for Oxbridge ...... Oxford and Cambridge universities, once given more than £130m a year in total by European research programmes, are now getting £1m annually between them

“For higher education and research, there are no new opportunities and no actual possible upsides from Brexit,” said Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at Oxford.

www.theguardian.com

Brexit causes collapse in European research funding for Oxbridge

Oxford and Cambridge universities, once given more than £130m a year in total by European research programmes, are now getting £1m annually between them
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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#1,225
How do you say "stuffed" - personally I think post-Brexshit there will soon be no UK auto except for Nissan

EV car manufacturing will be located close to gigafactories, and disruptions to trade caused by Brexit mean it will be more attractive to export finished products to the UK rather than manufacture within the country, according to the FDI expert. They also cite potential currency fluctuations between the euro and sterling, and EU local content rules as other drivers of car manufacturing being increasingly concentrated within the EU.

“If there isn’t a business case, there isn’t a business case. It doesn’t matter how much government subsidy you receive,” according to the FDI expert.

The slow death of the UK automotive sector. There has been little good news for the UK’s automotive sector in recent years. Brexit and then Covid led to a steep decline in investment, and then, in 2021, Honda closed the car production plant facility it had operated in Swindon for 36 years. According to the SMMT, UK car production fell 10% in 2022 to reach a 66-year low. “Very little investment came into the UK for several years because of all of the uncertainty over Brexit,” says Bailey. “We were starting from behind anyway and we have a lot of catching up to do.”

www.energymonitor.ai

Britishvolt shows UK automotive weakness - Investment Monitor

Some are calling for greater state support for the UK automotive industry, but the failure of Britishvolt was probably unavoidable.
www.energymonitor.ai www.energymonitor.ai
 
#1,226
petit_bateau said:
How do you say "stuffed" - personally I think post-Brexshit there will soon be no UK auto except for Nissan

EV car manufacturing will be located close to gigafactories, and disruptions to trade caused by Brexit mean it will be more attractive to export finished products to the UK rather than manufacture within the country, according to the FDI expert. They also cite potential currency fluctuations between the euro and sterling, and EU local content rules as other drivers of car manufacturing being increasingly concentrated within the EU.

“If there isn’t a business case, there isn’t a business case. It doesn’t matter how much government subsidy you receive,” according to the FDI expert.

The slow death of the UK automotive sector. There has been little good news for the UK’s automotive sector in recent years. Brexit and then Covid led to a steep decline in investment, and then, in 2021, Honda closed the car production plant facility it had operated in Swindon for 36 years. According to the SMMT, UK car production fell 10% in 2022 to reach a 66-year low. “Very little investment came into the UK for several years because of all of the uncertainty over Brexit,” says Bailey. “We were starting from behind anyway and we have a lot of catching up to do.”

www.energymonitor.ai

Britishvolt shows UK automotive weakness - Investment Monitor

Some are calling for greater state support for the UK automotive industry, but the failure of Britishvolt was probably unavoidable.
www.energymonitor.ai www.energymonitor.ai
Click to expand...
To my knowledge it still has not been disclosed how much UK paid Nissan to retain its UK operations... do wonder how long that will last too...
 
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#1,227
JupiterMan said:
To my knowledge it still has not been disclosed how much UK paid Nissan to retain its UK operations... do wonder how long that will last too...
Click to expand...
and today Nissan want even more money in order to stay competitive in the UK. A shrinking UK automotive sector, weaker supply chains, energy costs and inflation are cited as reasons.

wonder if a deal will be struck, and whether we will ever be told how much it will cost us, so we can add it to the ever growing Brexit bill.

www.autocar.co.uk

Nissan boss: UK 'more challenging' for car makers | Autocar

The UK's shrinking car output means suppliers are harder to attract, creating a vicious cycle
www.autocar.co.uk www.autocar.co.uk
www.bbc.co.uk

Nissan warns costs must fall to make new electric cars in UK

A senior boss at the car company says the UK faces challenges to be competitive with other countries.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
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#1,230
Buckminster said:
Tech spotlight is what we need.
Click to expand...
Don't expect people like me to bail Brexshit voters out. (I've put 20-years of my life into hard core tech in the UK). We know what "f*ck business" from Johnson means, even if we kept on trying after Cameron said "cut the green crap" when really we should have fled at that point.

Vote Brexshit, we left. And so has our capital. And we are not coming back before Rejoin. We have been Conned too many times.

And we are explaining these facts of life to the youngsters as well. They are listening. Your "we" and their "we" are different.

Theirs is EU.

You in the UK get to pay extra taxes to stop the UK unemployed (and unemployable) rioting. And to keep the NHS functioning. And the railways. And the schools. And the civil servants. Do you feel Conned ?

Get real. Rejoin.
 
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#1,232
petit_bateau said:
Get real. Rejoin.
Click to expand...
As an outsider I think the Brits should at least consider this option, and if you are going to rejoin, do it quickly.

No harm in admitting that you made a mistake.

I think the Europeans will welcome you back, and it will boost economic activity.

If you don't rejoin growing the economy is a long hard grind, and probably involves some devaluation of the currency, imports and overseas holidays could get more expensive.

It is not my call, but if I was a Brit I would not have voted to leave.
 
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#1,233
MC3OZ said:
As an outsider I think the Brits should at least consider this option, and if you are going to rejoin, do it quickly.

No harm in admitting that you made a mistake.

I think the Europeans will welcome you back, and it will boost economic activity.

If you don't rejoin growing the economy is a long hard grind, and probably involves some devaluation of the currency, imports and overseas holidays could get more expensive.

It is not my call, but if I was a Brit I would not have voted to leave.
Click to expand...
That would be nice but not going to happen for a long time. Public are not nearly ready to stomach it. British pride has been under-appreciated at every step. We were in a special position before and that is unlikely to be available now. Losing pound and control over border would take one brave politician to table (in or out of power...).

Things need to get a whole lot worse for it to become likely and even then it is more likely that we try to reach a Norway style deal.
 
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#1,234
Buckminster said:
Things need to get a whole lot worse for it to become likely and even then it is more likely that we try to reach a Norway style deal.
Click to expand...
I agree with your post, unfortunately.

Things will have to be demonstrably and irrefutably bad (even more so than now) before the British people, and perhaps more importantly, the Mail/Telegraph/Sun back any movement for closer alignment or rejoin and for them to see this/sell this as the patriotic thing to do.

It would also require membership of the ERG (for the Tories), or UKIP and the Brexit party (for the people), to be something to be frankly embarrassed about, with those organisations to become politically irrelevant.

The big issue with a Norway style deal as a compromise, is that we do then become many of the things Brexiters lied about in 2016, i.e. we would become a rule taker and have no representation in Brussels (I can see the future tabloid front pages now!). Norway struggles with this, but has a very strong economy, a huge national wealth sovereign fund and reasons for the position. UK would have much less of a reason to carry this compromise through.

In my mind any Norway type deal would be a stepping stone back in to EU membership. I suspect pound and Schengen would be the key negotiation points for rejoining to happen, however personally I would welcome them both. As for the UK rebate, forget it, that's gone.
 
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#1,235
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#1,236
Revealed: secret cross-party summit held to confront failings of Brexit
Leading Brexiters and remainers, including Michael Gove and David Lammy, met for two-day ‘private discussion’ with diplomats and business leaders

www.theguardian.com

Revealed: secret cross-party summit held to confront failings of Brexit

Leading Brexiters and remainers, including Michael Gove and David Lammy, met for two-day ‘private discussion’ with diplomats and business leaders
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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#1,237
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