Sunak deal likely to fail over ECJ powers in NI. Presumably Labour won't vote for it? Surely Starmer needs to get this out of the way before his term.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Brexit
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
JupiterMan
Active Member
Starmer has already said he would give Sunak political cover to get NI deal done. Of course, that could work in Westminster, albeit it at substantial political cost for Sunak with the ERG loonies, but getting the DUP to accept anything and return to Stormont is likely a whole other story.
JupiterMan
Active Member
link :
www.ft.com
inews.co.uk
Starmer offers Sunak ‘political cover’ to clinch EU deal on Northern Ireland
Opposition leader ready to ‘support’ prime minister as moves intensify to resolve dispute over protocol
www.ft.com
Starmer to offer Sunak 'political cover' in bid to resolve Northern Ireland Protocol
In a speech in Belfast tomorrow, the Labour leader will urge Rishi Sunak to take on Conservative Eurosceptics in his own party in a bid to resolve the Northern Ireland Protocol dispute
inews.co.uk
petit_bateau
Active Member
Piece by piece the Swiss model falls apart
www.railfreight.com
Switzerland: running trains in the EU might become an issue
Running trains in the European Union might become problematic for Switzerland. The authorisation procedure that allowed Swiss companies to run trains in all EU member states will in fact expire at the end of 2023 and the future is quite uncertain. The country is trying to have this procedure...
www.railfreight.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
The normal excellent piece from Chris Grey
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com
which also links to Tony Connelly who points out that, "If [Sunak] doesn’t prevail now he will have a potential trade war with the EU as soon as October, when the King’s Speech will either have the NI Protocol Bill in it - or it won’t."
My personal opinion is that Sunak is still working towards an Autumn 2024 general election, but if things go completely pear-shaped that might come forwards into Autumn 2023.
Sunak's Protocol no-show is entangled in Brexit lies
<a rel="me" href="https://mastodon.online/@ChrisGrey">Mastodon</a>
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com
which also links to Tony Connelly who points out that, "If [Sunak] doesn’t prevail now he will have a potential trade war with the EU as soon as October, when the King’s Speech will either have the NI Protocol Bill in it - or it won’t."
My personal opinion is that Sunak is still working towards an Autumn 2024 general election, but if things go completely pear-shaped that might come forwards into Autumn 2023.
I predict the deal will get signed the day before the EU staff go on their August holidays.The normal excellent piece from Chris Grey
Sunak's Protocol no-show is entangled in Brexit lies
<a rel="me" href="https://mastodon.online/@ChrisGrey">Mastodon</a>
which also links to Tony Connelly who points out that, "If [Sunak] doesn’t prevail now he will have a potential trade war with the EU as soon as October, when the King’s Speech will either have the NI Protocol Bill in it - or it won’t."
My personal opinion is that Sunak is still working towards an Autumn 2024 general election, but if things go completely pear-shaped that might come forwards into Autumn 2023.
Why would Sunak bring forward the election? His only chance is to wait for a miracle. Miracles take time to engineer.
petit_bateau
Active Member
If there is no-deal, then Sunak may have no choice. In the no deal scenario then it is possible Sunak could lose a VONC in the Autumn.
If he continues with the NI bill at that point then Tory centrists may rebel; but if he doesn't proceed then ERG+DUP will rebel. So then VONC and Autumn 2023 scenario.
(and if he does a deal then it is also likely that ERG+DUP will rebel, but in that scenario a VONC is less likely as Labour will support - which is the Autumn 2024 scenario)
Anyone who thinks Brexit is over isn't watching very carefully. By now even Mrs Miggins looking at the empty food shelves in the supermarkets has figured this out.
There is a reason Johnson-the-liar is scurrying around like a rat, trying to find a safe seat.
When it comes to a vote, I would imagine a fair few of the ERG will come around. Are DUP hopeful that Bozza will be returning? Would they prefer to go back to into EU?
petit_bateau
Active Member
I have no idea. (IMHO the concepts of Brexiters and sanity are mutually exclusive. )
petit_bateau
Active Member
Well, we may be about to find out
www.theguardian.com
Sunak could announce Northern Ireland protocol deal on Monday
Move would come after four months of intense negotiations and mark an end to two-year standoff with EU
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
"‘Brits are suffering but for us it’s boom time’:"
“Brexit seems to have been good for Ireland and France. For the UK? I’m not so sure.”
www.theguardian.com
The NFU’s deputy president, Tom Bradshaw, said a reliance on imports had left the UK particularly exposed to “shock weather events”. ..... Bradshaw also acknowledged that the current shortage was an indirect result of the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
www.theguardian.com
“Brexit seems to have been good for Ireland and France. For the UK? I’m not so sure.”
‘Brits are suffering but for us it’s boom time’: how Brexit boosted French and Irish ports
The cheapest way from Ireland to Europe used to be via Dover. But now Cherbourg and Rosslare are thriving
www.theguardian.com
The NFU’s deputy president, Tom Bradshaw, said a reliance on imports had left the UK particularly exposed to “shock weather events”. ..... Bradshaw also acknowledged that the current shortage was an indirect result of the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
Vegetable shortages in UK could be ‘tip of iceberg’, says farming union
Energy prices, Brexit and climate crisis mean growers lack confidence to plant crops, says NFU deputy
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
Something all the NIP hoo hah glosses over is that the EU member states have not granted the Commission any authority to renegotiate the WA or the FTA. So all that is going on here is nurse patiently discussing with the recalcitrant teenager that they really do have to swallow the bitter pill as set out in the NIP, but maybe they can use a coloured marker to make it look like a sweetie. And the EU nations will not reopen treaty-level negotiations, that is simply not on if only because of their domestic issues associated with treaty ratifications.
That's why there in reality no changes, just slightly different administrativia so that the UK does as it is told, and does what it signed up to. For some reason journalists seem to be glossing over this reality.
A lot of political capital just to do what Johnson already signed, and lied about, and never intended to actually honour. Sunak must really enjoy carrying the bucket of sh1t uphill.
www.theguardian.com
www.theguardian.com
That's why there in reality no changes, just slightly different administrativia so that the UK does as it is told, and does what it signed up to. For some reason journalists seem to be glossing over this reality.
A lot of political capital just to do what Johnson already signed, and lied about, and never intended to actually honour. Sunak must really enjoy carrying the bucket of sh1t uphill.
Northern Ireland protocol: what are the issues and what could change?
UK and EU aiming to finalise a deal to revise terms of agreement on post-Brexit trade
www.theguardian.com
Brexit: Sunak facing tough sell to Tories and DUP as Von der Leyen flies in
European Commission chief heading to Britain for ‘final talks’ over Northern Ireland protocol
www.theguardian.com
Last edited:
petit_bateau
Active Member
Here is the bulsh1t brief, aka "Command Paper"
Same pill, different colour, cunning spin. At least that is my reading. The colour is of course red white and blue and branded Windsor as nanny doesn't care about the colour provided the tantrum children swallow the medicine.
What is also very cunning is that a) if DUP pulls Stormont down, then staus quo applies; but b) if DUP in Stormont then Sin Fein (and Alliance) essentially have veto over DUP (there is a 30-vote threshold that the DUP cannot reach alone) ; and c) when next elections/referendum in NI come around the default seems to be status quo until/unless another way found.
>>>>>> “pacta sunt servanda” : "agreements must be kept",
Here is the UK government’s 27-page document on the Windsor framework.
Here is the five-page political declaration agreed by the European Commission and the UK.
And here is the 74-page legal text.
Same pill, different colour, cunning spin. At least that is my reading. The colour is of course red white and blue and branded Windsor as nanny doesn't care about the colour provided the tantrum children swallow the medicine.
What is also very cunning is that a) if DUP pulls Stormont down, then staus quo applies; but b) if DUP in Stormont then Sin Fein (and Alliance) essentially have veto over DUP (there is a 30-vote threshold that the DUP cannot reach alone) ; and c) when next elections/referendum in NI come around the default seems to be status quo until/unless another way found.
>>>>>> “pacta sunt servanda” : "agreements must be kept",
Here is the UK government’s 27-page document on the Windsor framework.
Here is the five-page political declaration agreed by the European Commission and the UK.
And here is the 74-page legal text.
Last edited:
Everyone except Daily Mail readers seem to be happy with deal.
Rejoining Horizon seems straightforward.
Deal opens up a deal with US. Can't see DeSantis and Starmer agreeing a trade deal. So we hope Biden stays and maybe includes UK in a new TTIP?
Rejoining Horizon seems straightforward.
Deal opens up a deal with US. Can't see DeSantis and Starmer agreeing a trade deal. So we hope Biden stays and maybe includes UK in a new TTIP?
JupiterMan
Active Member
Main issue with any UK/US trade deal remains the food standards, which would, as I understand it, be a major requirement for US agreeing a deal.
If UK lowers standards to US levels, then UK farmers have a choice of lowering their standards to compete domestically with those imports, cutting off their ability to export to the EU Single market, or to retain higher standards to retain EU export trade but to be less competitive domestically against US imports.
Of course you also have to get UK consumer to want to lower standards also, I can't see Starmer wanting to do this, or much appetite from the consumer (remember the fuss about the need to chlorine wash chicken?) and doubt any deal could be rushed through before next GE.
Potentially resolving NI Protocol merely opens up ability to talk about a deal, but major difficulties and questions remain as they have always been.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Reading the various Declarations and Legal Positions and Command Papers and what not, it becomes pretty clear that this is all window dressing and administrativia.
The actual Withdrawal Agreement and Trade & Cooperation Agreement remain in place and remain the governing treaties, ""the United Kingdom and the European Union, based on their continued commitment to the two Agreements that govern their relationship - the Withdrawal Agreement and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement" and all that this flim flam is are trivial changes to the lower level stuff such that the UK actually gets on and properly implements what it signed up to in the first place, i.e.
- proper border posts at the ports;
- proper compliance with EU standards;
- proper access for EU to UK monitoring (IT) systems;
- etc
This as an absolute travesty dressed up as a substantive change. All that is happening here is that nanny is getting the child to actually swallow the pill.
The actual Withdrawal Agreement and Trade & Cooperation Agreement remain in place and remain the governing treaties, ""the United Kingdom and the European Union, based on their continued commitment to the two Agreements that govern their relationship - the Withdrawal Agreement and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement" and all that this flim flam is are trivial changes to the lower level stuff such that the UK actually gets on and properly implements what it signed up to in the first place, i.e.
- proper border posts at the ports;
- proper compliance with EU standards;
- proper access for EU to UK monitoring (IT) systems;
- etc
This as an absolute travesty dressed up as a substantive change. All that is happening here is that nanny is getting the child to actually swallow the pill.
JupiterMan
Active Member
indeed, we know this is true as Ursula von der Leyen had no mandate from the EU member states to renegotiate the treaty.
its all window dressing, administrative easements, and in the case of UK, branding.
I assume that you are both not quite as negative as you sound. From what I can see, the whole world's media is very positive. I agree with your main position. Brexit was a mistake and we will struggle to replace it ever. You are on the winning side. But, this is good all things considered and could have been much worse.
Similar threads
