By 2022 all BMW's will be AWD range-extender electric cars | Electric Vehicle...

[tomas]

Battery production. GF is not built in a year.
And chineese cannot supply them all.

Right. 4 years, maybe 3. Meaning if BMW needs that sort of capacity for 2020 they only need start in 2016 or 17.

 

[jbcarioca]

...especially eco-friendly customers (who are the most likely to consider BEVs at all) don't usually cross-shop a sports/high performance car with a Model S (The simple fact is, Model S is grossly overpowered for what it needs to achieve ...

I suspect you might be stereotyping a bit here and missing a technical point also.
First, despite ridiculous car-purchase habits (Elon Musk's own McLaren a prime example) wealthy people often choose ecologically friendly options when they can, even though their overall lifestyle may be inconsistent. I wonder how many Tesla owners have/have had private aircraft, fast boats very high end ICE cars and so on? Most S owners I personally know have and/or have had most of those. Please don't equate willingness to spend 80.000 Euro or more for a car as a reflection of consistency in thought. Everyone who buys luxury vehicles in any class is not making a rational consistent decision. Much more so when the decision has some quasi-logical environmental benefit. We only need to think about Swiss watches to realise that rationality and consistency are not the issues.

Second, a dose of rationality on electrical power vs ICE. Even with advanced cylinder deactivation and/or hybrid ICE cars do pay a large efficiency for excess performance. Not so much for BEV. A electrical motor on light load is a minimal user of power simply because there is no large reciprocating mass nor complex transmission process. A Model S, driven conservatively may have as much as 60% energy efficiency while the very best ICE could not exceed 20%. Even to get to 20% the ICE would need to be quite underpowered. In reality the huge power of the P85D exacts a very small penalty in efficiency so long as the power remains unused.

I do not want to suggest that the S's are not overpowered. They most certainly are! However, that does not cost much when not used and does add huge appeal to those of us who live as examples of cognitive dissonance in our daily lives. One major difference between the bizarre choices of Elon Musk and those of most other people is that he is a fount of inconsisty himself and he understands that the rest of humanity is too.

So, back to BMW. They do understand those inconsistencies. hence the rocket-like performance of selected BMW diesels and the massive investments in carbon fibre and advanced propulsion. Everyone knows the EU carbon emissions rules are great motivators, but BMW is turing those into conspicuous consumption. IMHO, BMW may be one of the manufacturers taht understands why Tesla is becoming so successful.

Nobody anywhere can succeed when trying to make austerity a preferred consumer choice. "Ain't gonna work." Dare we think of Greece in that context?

 

[matbl]

I suspect you might be stereotyping a bit here and missing a technical point also.
First, despite ridiculous car-purchase habits (Elon Musk's own McLaren a prime example) wealthy people often choose ecologically friendly options when they can, even though their overall lifestyle may be inconsistent. I wonder how many Tesla owners have/have had private aircraft, fast boats very high end ICE cars and so on? Most S owners I personally know have and/or have had most of those.

I would guess that in europe, almost none. Most buyers, especially in the high volume norwegian market and other smaller markets such as sweden, denmark, netherlands, are normal income family households who often stretch a bit to afford the model S.

 

[jbcarioca]

I would guess that in europe, almost none. Most buyers, especially in the high volume norwegian market and other smaller markets such as sweden, denmark, netherlands, are normal income family households who often stretch a bit to afford the model S.

Despite my earlier comments I do not want to suggest that tax incentives cannot seriously change the equation. In those markets where there are small tax incentives, none at all, or means-based incentives the demand obviously shifts. My comments were predicted on the absence of tax incentives.

You are quite correct if you conclude that I personally had no tax incentives. In theory I am eligible for a US Federal tax credit, $7500 tax credit against a $125,000 car is not a major factor. In any event many people, including me, will not get it because our US taxes are sufficiently well-planned that such a credit ends out being almost useless.
Even where, like Norway, the tax incentives are well established, many people choose more economical options. the Kia Soul being the choice of a couple of my Norwegian friends.

If I understand you correctly the S is an aspirational choice for many Norwegians, as it is almost everywhere, I think. The people I was referring to in my earlier post seem to view their Tesla's in that way.

 

[AustinPowers]

Despite my earlier comments I do not want to suggest that tax incentives cannot seriously change the equation. In those markets where there are small tax incentives, none at all, or means-based incentives the demand obviously shifts. My comments were predicted on the absence of tax incentives.

Well, here in Germany we have (currently) very little incentives for buying an EV. And I would be very interested to know the backgrounds of those roundabout 2.000 Model S buyers over here, especially the private ones. I would also be very interested to know how many of those Model S's over here are owned by private buyers at all. But in any case I tend to wager that very few of them had/have private aircraft, fast boats etc. Even though Germany is admittedly a "rich" country, the percentage of the ultra-rich (who actually could afford a private aircraft) is very small. And whether those own a Model S also, as I said, I would be eager/very curious to know.

 

[matbl]

Despite my earlier comments I do not want to suggest that tax incentives cannot seriously change the equation. In those markets where there are small tax incentives, none at all, or means-based incentives the demand obviously shifts. My comments were predicted on the absence of tax incentives.

You are quite correct if you conclude that I personally had no tax incentives. In theory I am eligible for a US Federal tax credit, $7500 tax credit against a $125,000 car is not a major factor. In any event many people, including me, will not get it because our US taxes are sufficiently well-planned that such a credit ends out being almost useless.
Even where, like Norway, the tax incentives are well established, many people choose more economical options. the Kia Soul being the choice of a couple of my Norwegian friends.

If I understand you correctly the S is an aspirational choice for many Norwegians, as it is almost everywhere, I think. The people I was referring to in my earlier post seem to view their Tesla's in that way.

In sweden there is only a small incentive of 40k sek (S85 with basic options is about 900k sek). And apart from a few very rich and famous, I would say that most likely no buyers is in the boat/plane category... Most are still families who stretch financially.

 

[Teslawisher]

Tesla already raised the bar very high. 2000 annual production was meaningful 5 years ago. Today the bar is at 50k, 10k means nothing much.
In 5 years the bar will be at 300k cars annual for a market leader. A car produced in 30k units pear year is no real competition.

Yes, but Tesla was once at 10k, 30k, etc. Don't turn a blind eye just becasue 30k per year "is no real competition". It can certainly BECOME competition as we are seeing Tesla become.