California renewable energy production with falling demand

[RubberToe]

Speaking of falling demand NOT, yesterday was a historic day in California as the ISO had to implement rolling blackouts in parts of the state. The sooner those large batteries get online the better. Speaking of batteries, the ISO use of batteries was pretty small and choppy for the most part since I have been checking on it. But yesterday, they look to have discharged quite a bit during the heavy usage period of the heat wave, and then immediately recharged them:

In checking total power for the system, the day peaked at almost 47GW:

I don't track peak demand, but I do track the 24-hour total demand. The 852,390 was quite a bit higher than the preceding days obviously due to the heat wave. But in looking back several years this isn't unprecedented. Here are the daily total power highs for the last 5 years:

2015: 888,141
2016: 877,587
2017: 931,741 (9-1-17)
2018: 876,174
2019: 824,494
2020: 852,390

I think that residential behind the meter SPV is one of the reasons that total power being dispatched by CAISO is falling over time. But obviously very hot days still require generation peaks. Going forward with more distributed rooftop SPV being installed, demand will decrease further, and the big batteries getting installed now will be able to provide the peaking power required on hot days versus fossil plants.

 

[iPlug]

Yesterday also had an atypically high amount of cloud cover over the state related to regional weather phenomena. Watching the CAISO live charting yesterday shows that we have much more room for cheap solar deployment. NG supply during solar peak was ~2x with a decent amount of imports as well.

 

[SageBrush]

Watching the CAISO live charting yesterday shows that we have much more room for cheap solar deployment.

Along with at least equal amounts (if not more) of wind. If I were king of CA I'd add 40 GW of off-shore wind and ~ 20 GW of PV. That would leave about 40 GWh of battery to fill in the dips

 

[iPlug]

Along with at least equal amounts (if not more) of wind. If I were king of CA I'd add 40 GW of off-shore wind and ~ 20 GW of PV. That would leave about 40 GWh of battery to fill in the dips

Imports fill in a lot of our gap on almost every night of the year, so more wind would be most welcome.

Glad to see coal being rapidly retired from out-of-state, but that would mean better (but not good enough) NG mostly from SW imports. Lots of hydro from NW, so happy to keep them there for grid resilience.

 

[SageBrush]

Imports fill in a lot of our gap on almost every night of the year, so more wind would be most welcome.

Glad to see coal being rapidly retired from out-of-state, but that would mean better (but not good enough) NG mostly from SW imports. Lots of hydro from NW, so happy to keep them there for grid resilience.

If I am right that 40 GWh of battery is enough once wind and PV are optimized, my arithmetic works out to 1 kWh per capita. Seems really low; is my calc correct ?

 

[iPlug]

If I am right that 40 GWh of battery is enough once wind and PV are optimized, my arithmetic works out to 1 kWh per capita. Seems really low; is my calc correct ?

I have never run any formal calculations. Over the last year have watched the CAISO supply by energy source about every week or two to get a sense of demand and supply throughout different seasonality and weather conditions.

Without knowing how consistent offshore wind production would be in California, but assuming we would still be able to rely on the southwest and northwest grid interconnects for back up in a fashion that is currently available, I suspect 40 GWh of battery will likely work.

Haven’t really tried to wrap my head around yet what would happen if and when everything gets graduated to heat pumps and we completely abandon natural gas for heating homes, water, and cooking.

As far as kWh per capita, I think that’s right. About 40 million people in our state = 1kWh/capita.

 

[iPlug]

A very affordable and effective solution to the recent and potential future rolling blackouts would be to advertise and deploy flex alert/TOU plans in California.

Right now there are only small numbers of folks and businesses who are on such a plan. Typically a plan like this offers a discount on summer electricity rates in exchange for higher prices during critical peak pricing. Such events are typically around a dozen times a year in the late afternoon to early evening on the hottest summer days.

Most of this is done through smart thermostats that temporarily adjust temperature during these events.

IMO, almost everyone should be on some form of TOU plan and be more invested in the energy they are using. We need a smart marketplace.

 

[miimura]

A very affordable and effective solution to the recent and potential future rolling blackouts would be to advertise and deploy flex alert/TOU plans in California.

Right now there are only small numbers of folks and businesses who are on such a plan. Typically a plan like this offers a discount on summer electricity rates in exchange for higher prices during critical peak pricing. Such events are typically around a dozen times a year in the late afternoon to early evening on the hottest summer days.

Most of this is done through smart thermostats that temporarily adjust temperature during these events.

IMO, almost everyone should be on some form of TOU plan and be more invested in the energy they are using. We need a smart marketplace.

The small business account that I manage used to be on this PG&E Peak Day Pricing plan. However, when we were auto-enrolled in the CCA, we were taken off that plan. I used to try to pre-cool the office and coast through the Peak hours, but the tonnage of the A/C was not sufficient to drop the temp inside low enough. I could only coast for about two hours before it became too warm inside.

 

[Dave EV]

The small business account that I manage used to be on this PG&E Peak Day Pricing plan. However, when we were auto-enrolled in the CCA, we were taken off that plan. I used to try to pre-cool the office and coast through the Peak hours, but the tonnage of the A/C was not sufficient to drop the temp inside low enough. I could only coast for about two hours before it became too warm inside.

Yeah, if your AC is sized right where it's designed to just barely keep up on the hottest days at the desired set up, you won't have the the head room to cool off much more than a couple degrees. So your only option is to really pre-cool a bit before the peak, then let it get a bit warmer during the peak. What you really need is more insulation, not more AC, though, unless you have a substantial amount of heat generation in the envelope, in which case you need to address that.

 

[SageBrush]

The small business account that I manage used to be on this PG&E Peak Day Pricing plan. However, when we were auto-enrolled in the CCA, we were taken off that plan. I used to try to pre-cool the office and coast through the Peak hours, but the tonnage of the A/C was not sufficient to drop the temp inside low enough. I could only coast for about two hours before it became too warm inside.

Is this an 'all or nothing' program ? Meaning, can you pre-cool to use *less* during peak hours ?

 

[miimura]

Is this an 'all or nothing' program ? Meaning, can you pre-cool to use *less* during peak hours ?

Sure, those two hours at the start of the Peak period didn't have any A/C use, so we did use less during the Peak hours. However, we used significantly more kWh during Off-Peak than what we saved to try to pre-cool below the normal set point.

This is a leased commercial space, so there's not much we can do about insulation and such. If we were to get a significant lease extension and do more TI's, the main improvement would be to frame an insulated stud wall against the back wall which is solid concrete and south facing. You can feel the heat radiating off that wall on a hot afternoon.

 

[iPlug]

If the incentives are aligned correctly, the possibilities are endless.

For example, if the price is right, lower cost of electricity for the balance of the summer might make it worth while for a significant number of businesses to start their employees 1-2 hours early and/or send them home just as early on critical days.

If only 25% of buildings turned down their temp 2ºF during peak times, that would probably do it. Workers could be given some extra cash during that time so they are invested in it and feeling "cool" about it too...

 

[navguy12]

the main improvement would be to frame an insulated stud wall against the back wall which is solid concrete and south facing. You can feel the heat radiating off that wall on a hot afternoon.

I know you will work with what you have to make it as efficient as you can.

In a perfect world, you have your insulation on the exterior of a large mass wall.

That large mass wall then becomes the stable thermal mass that helps to maintain the set point of your HVAC system.

Kind of like an ICF wall concept, only with an existing wall.

 

[Uncle Paul]

California is now paying the price for all that "curtailment"

They cut things really close by cancelling lots of peaker plants and taking large nuclear power plants off line and decommissioning them.

A heat wave is going through the South West and neighboring states that usually send their excess electricity cheaply over to California now have little to spare.

There are rolling blackouts all over California as the current grid cannot keep up with so many Covid work from home citizens needing to turn on their AC and computers.

The environmentalists have been very LOUD and put tremendous pressure on the State to go Green. Now that is significantly reducing the quality of life for people living here.

My home was cut off yesterday for 4 hours. Temps hit 107º in the afternoon. Guess there was not enough wind and solar going on line to offset all the power plants they recently decommissioned.

More heat to come the next several days. Miserable contitions to endure, but those plants are now closed and their former employees gathering unemployment.

Tesla sent out a memo to all their customers pleading for us to not use the Supercharger network nor charge our cars from home during the hot weather. Said that owners need to do everything possible to take some of the load off the failing grid.

Our government has failed us...once again.

 

[miimura]

The actual direct cause of the first day of rolling blackouts was a major gas plant "tripping" and another failing to come back online from maintenance on schedule.

California has first rolling blackouts in 19 years — and everyone faces blame

 

[SageBrush]

My home was cut off yesterday for 4 hours. Temps hit 107º in the afternoon.

107F is nasty. It has been hot here in New Mexico also, but we have learned to reasonably adapt. Part of it is getting used to hotter weather, the rest are passive measures. We still consume about 5 - 6 kWh a day to cover our 2800 s.f. home and occasional car use. Quality of life is unchanged.

 

[mspohr]

Money Talks: California residents earn big bucks for easing grid strain

OhmConnect paid out more than $300,000 to its California residential demand response users when temperatures soared last Friday, a day in which the company’s virtual power plant supplied more than 200 MWh to California’s grid by harnessing the power of its fleet of energy-saving homes and smart devices across the state.

 

[miimura]

I would be happy to give my Powerwall energy to the CA-ISO if they would pay me $1.50/kWh. For that price, they can take it whenever they want without even asking beforehand.

 

[SageBrush]

I would be happy to give my Powerwall energy to the CA-ISO if they would pay me $1.50/kWh. For that price, they can take it whenever they want without even asking beforehand.

And yet the article says ~ 150,000 participants, so an average of 1.3 kWh saved per participant.

I suppose both numbers can be true but I'm skeptical.

 

[miimura]

And yet the article says ~ 150,000 participants, so an average of 1.3 kWh saved per participant.

I suppose both numbers can be true but I'm skeptical.

I find it all quite believable. I would allow them to take up to 5kWh/day from my Powerwalls at that price.