Looks like about 5300 2018’s available a month and a half ago... about one week of production while most others were being shipped to Europe... wonder how many are left?
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Can I still cancel my M3P order?
- Thread starter schnieds
- Start date
Looks like about 5300 2018’s available a month and a half ago... about one week of production while most others were being shipped to Europe... wonder how many are left?
@jrs_66, all 10,848 are HW2.5 which is what matters here. The important thing is, people are still getting HW2.5 cars these days and this is very common.
I'm the author of the Model 3 Order Tracker spreadsheet here. Let me pick an example from there:
@Redbud13 is a Model 3 MR buyer from Oregon. He ordered on 11 Mar 2019, took delivery on 19 Mar 2019 and his car was built in Jan 2019 based on the driver door frame label. Obviously, his car is HW2.5. He ordered Full Self-Driving. That means he will receive the HW3 computer swap for free. This example shows that people are still getting HW2.5 cars delivered these days.
The risk here is, what if HW3 cars have other hardware differences compared to HW2.5 excluding the computer and the sensors? We know that HW3 sensors will be the same as HW2.5 because Elon tweeted about it. See the first tweet below. Also, we know the computer swap will be easy. See the first and second tweets. However, we don't know whether HW3 cars might have additional wiring for redundancy or an additional backup source or other differences we don't know about yet. The trend when going from HW1 to HW2 to HW2.5 was to add more redundancy. The changes included things like second power steering motor, secondary wiring to the front radar, backup power.
Tesla promised a free upgrade but that doesn't mean everything will be the same as HW3. FSD buyers with HW2.0 were also promised a free upgrade but there is no guarantee they will have the same hardware HW2.5 currently has. So far, their sensors were not upgraded to HW2.5 specs even if they bought FSD. If Tesla was planning to upgrade HW2.0 sensors to HW2.5 if the buyer bought FSD, they would have started doing that by now. In other words, there might be a few different versions of HW3. Native HW3 could support driverless FSD because it has more redundancy but retrofit-HW3 might support driver-present-FSD. That's what I would expect to happen.
Source: Elon Musk on Twitter
Source: Elon Musk on Twitter
I'm the author of the Model 3 Order Tracker spreadsheet here. Let me pick an example from there:
@Redbud13 is a Model 3 MR buyer from Oregon. He ordered on 11 Mar 2019, took delivery on 19 Mar 2019 and his car was built in Jan 2019 based on the driver door frame label. Obviously, his car is HW2.5. He ordered Full Self-Driving. That means he will receive the HW3 computer swap for free. This example shows that people are still getting HW2.5 cars delivered these days.
The risk here is, what if HW3 cars have other hardware differences compared to HW2.5 excluding the computer and the sensors? We know that HW3 sensors will be the same as HW2.5 because Elon tweeted about it. See the first tweet below. Also, we know the computer swap will be easy. See the first and second tweets. However, we don't know whether HW3 cars might have additional wiring for redundancy or an additional backup source or other differences we don't know about yet. The trend when going from HW1 to HW2 to HW2.5 was to add more redundancy. The changes included things like second power steering motor, secondary wiring to the front radar, backup power.
Tesla promised a free upgrade but that doesn't mean everything will be the same as HW3. FSD buyers with HW2.0 were also promised a free upgrade but there is no guarantee they will have the same hardware HW2.5 currently has. So far, their sensors were not upgraded to HW2.5 specs even if they bought FSD. If Tesla was planning to upgrade HW2.0 sensors to HW2.5 if the buyer bought FSD, they would have started doing that by now. In other words, there might be a few different versions of HW3. Native HW3 could support driverless FSD because it has more redundancy but retrofit-HW3 might support driver-present-FSD. That's what I would expect to happen.
Source: Elon Musk on Twitter
Source: Elon Musk on Twitter
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@Troy. I think you’re muddying the water here. I believe every single model 3 made is HW2.5. Other than employee volunteers, who had HW3 swapped for testing, there is not a single HW3 in an M3.
The situation here is simple:
- If you take delivery by the end of this month, your car will most likely have HW2.5
- If you want native-HW3, you should wait a little more. Tesla will publish a blog post about HW3 between 10-20 Apr 2019. They will talk about the amazing new neural network chip Tesla created specifically for autonomous driving. They will also make it clear that all cars leaving the factory have the full HW3 suite. In fact, all production will switch to HW3 before the end of this month but the blog post won't mention that.
- There is 0% chance any Tesla produced after 31 March 2019 will have HW2.5
- There could be hardware differences between native-HW3 and retrofit-HW3 excluding the Autopilot computer and the sensors. The sensors will be the same as HW2.5 and the computer will be swapped. Therefore, there is no need to focus on these. It's other things that could be different. These are things like additional wiring or backup power that add redundancy. I think there is a chance native-HW3 could support driverless-FSD while retrofit-HW3 might not support it.
- Check out my message here from two weeks ago where I predicted the timing of HW3. Also, there is a longer explanation here.
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Thank you.
I just logged into my Tesla Account page and I don't have a View Spec link yet. Right now I go to my Model 3 order and says I am in the prepare for delivery stage and the only link I have is Your Car -> View Build Details.
I am guessing I have to wait for a VIN to show up after the car is matched and then I will try the options lookup and report back.
Huh?? Do you have any facts, or even rumor, behind this statement? It’s march 26 and NO M3 have been made with HW3.
This is related to the timing of international orders. Before the end of this month, all production will switch to international orders, starting with furthest away destinations like Japan, Australia, UK, Hong Kong because Q2 production needs to be delivered within Q2 and these countries have long transit times, usually more than 55 days.
The cars they will make now for these countries will be delivered in June 2016. If the cars didn't have HW3, most buyers would refuse delivery because Tesla will confirm HW3 in the middle of April. You might say, why don't they confirm it now? Because end-of-quarter deliveries are not over yet and they are still delivering HW2.5. Let's assume they came out on 5 April 2019 and said all production switched to HW3. That won't work because many people who took delivery at the end of March would be within the return window. Also, there is usually a ship somewhere in Asia that arrived late and they couldn't deliver all cars by the end of the quarter. Therefore there is 2 weeks gap between the switch and the announcement.
You might say, maybe they will switch Model S and X to HW3 but not the Model 3. No, it doesn't work like that. Most buyers who are supposed to take delivery in Q2 would refuse delivery and sales of Model 3 going forward would plummet because people would wait for HW3 confirmation.
Even a few weeks ago many people thought HW3 won't happen in 2019 or at least, it was many months away. However, it was clear to me that the switch would happen at the end of March. I wrote about this a lot. This screenshot below is from my message here where people can read the reason for the timing. There is also an even more detailed explanation here. Tesla will announce HW3 within 3 weeks from now. I'm 100% sure.
You might say, "Why should we believe you? Were you correct about other things in the past?" Yes, for example, I knew a few months in advance that all Model 3s would support Supercharger V3 but none of the Model S/X would. See my four tweets here. You can find many other examples in the predictions thread here. Also, if you do a Google News search for Troy Teslike, you can find a few articles based on my research.
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- Resale value: Recently I checked the difference between the resale value of AP1.0 and AP2.0 Model S and it was $12,000. I only had a quick look. Somebody who knows this topic better might say, the difference is usually $6,000. I'm not an expert on this but obviously, there is a big difference. In addition, it would be actually better to look into the resale value difference between AP2.0 and AP2.5. I think that would be a better comparison but I haven't looked into it.
- Autopilot security features: In the podcast here, Elon said AP3.0 will use higher frames per second and the computer will be 10 to 20 times more powerful (sometimes he says 2000% instead of 20x). Therefore I would expect emergency braking and side collision avoidance to react quicker with AP3.0.
- Regulatory approval: My guess is native-HW3 will have more redundancy than retrofit-HW3. It might have secondary wiring and backup power. Therefore I think there is a chance native-HW3 could get regulatory approval for driverless-FSD but retrofit-HW3 might only support driver-present-FSD. I have heard Elon use the term "driverless" which makes me think in the future this will be a difference we will talk about.
- Future upgradability: Anything related to wiring makes retrofits practically impossible. Native-HW3 could have wiring in place for future upgradability. There is a chance, native-HW3 could support retrofit HW3.5 that adds a new sensor, maybe a rear-radar or something else that we don't know about yet. It might already have the wiring in place. Let's say Tesla already knows they can't achieve driverless-FSD without a rear-radar. That's exactly what I would expect them to do in this scenario. Mercedes' autonomous hardware is similar to Tesla's but they have a rear radar too. See the image here.
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I worked it out with Tesla and deferred my delivery 1-2 months. Since a VIN wasn't matched to my order yet, they said that most likely I wouldn't receive my M3P on Friday the 29th as scheduled anyways. They offered to defer my delivery for 1-2 months to see if there is an official HW3 announcement and they can verify that Model 3s are shipping with HW3. I am happy with that as it doesn't cost me or Tesla any additional money and I will hopefully get HW3, including any possible changes included with it, with my new Model 3.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
I'm pretty sure Troy has me on ignore because he doesn't like to be challenged... but here goes anyway:
This makes no sense whatsoever. People aren't going to refuse delivery just because it's HW2.5. Most ordinary people won't even know. And those that do know can just wait for the HW3 retrofit when FSD is available.
This is 100%, complete, unadulterated FUD. There is absolutely zero evidence to support this. Elon has even said just the opposite that retrofit is plug and play.
You're (yet again) fabricating evidence and problems for people when none exist, purely to support your own weak arguments.
This makes no sense whatsoever. People aren't going to refuse delivery just because it's HW2.5. Most ordinary people won't even know. And those that do know can just wait for the HW3 retrofit when FSD is available.
This is 100%, complete, unadulterated FUD. There is absolutely zero evidence to support this. Elon has even said just the opposite that retrofit is plug and play.
You're (yet again) fabricating evidence and problems for people when none exist, purely to support your own weak arguments.
Reeler
Decade of Pure EV Driving
Is there any way of knowing which cars have AP3.0 or AP2.5? I think having the new native hardware will get you more updates down the line even if you didn't buy FSD.
Any Tesla built in April 2019 or later will have HW3. The driver's door frame label shows the month of manufacture. It will show 04/19 for April 2019 but the problem is, you can't check the label until delivery. Therefore here is what I think you should do if you want native-HW3:
Buyers in Europe or Asia/Pacific:
Go ahead and place your order now. I think they started building HW3 Model 3s for Europe and Asia/Pacific around 28 March 2019. The first batch of deliveries should start around 15 May 2019. If they try to deliver the car before 8 May 2019, there is 95% chance that car will be HW2.5 and you should ask for HW3.0. If the delivery is after 20 May 2019, there is 95% chance it will be HW3. If you have not placed your order yet and you place it now, it might be delivered at the end of June during the end-of-quarter push. However, if too many people placed an order before you, you could be late for this quarter. In that case, your delivery should happen between 15-31 Aug 2019. If you want delivery in June, you should definitely order before the Autopilot Event on 22 April because lots of people will order then and they will stop EU production around 15 May.
Buyers in North America:
I would expect Model 3 production to switch to HW3 around 15 May 2019. Until then, I would expect them to continue making cars for Europe and Asia/Pacific. If you are in California, you don't need to rush because after they are done with Europe and Asia/Pacific, they will continue production with Canada and Eastern US states. They want to deliver all Q2 production in Q2. Therefore they start production in each quarter with furthest away destinations and finish with CA. I think buyers in California can safely wait until 10 May 2019 to place an order. I think Model 3 buyers outside of California should wait until 25 April 2019.
Model 3 LR buyers should not wait because once the existing stock is gone, they won't make any LR. Also, I think all LRs they have in stock were produced in March or before and have HW2.5.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Gigagrunt in an earlier thread has already debunked this claim you keep making-(much like Elon himself debunked your FUD claims about HW3 having "different wiring")
Posted yesterday afternoon-
If you want to cancel, do not wait for the VIN.. once you get the VIN, they will not give you the 2,500 back.
I understand your need to wait, and frankly if it is really close to be getting new M3s with HW3, I'd wait. Yes, they will replace for free, but I doubt it will be fast. I would not be surprised if it took more than one year for people to get it... Just look at the damn carbon fiber spoiler, which there are people who received the car several months ago, and still don't have..
I am not sure when my spoiler will be available.. now this is a cosmetic add to the car.. the computer, which will take longer to replace.. God.. maybe 2021?
I understand your need to wait, and frankly if it is really close to be getting new M3s with HW3, I'd wait. Yes, they will replace for free, but I doubt it will be fast. I would not be surprised if it took more than one year for people to get it... Just look at the damn carbon fiber spoiler, which there are people who received the car several months ago, and still don't have..
I am not sure when my spoiler will be available.. now this is a cosmetic add to the car.. the computer, which will take longer to replace.. God.. maybe 2021?
Depends on state law. In some states if you do not take delivery and the contract is also not executed they can not keep any monies or deposits. Laws vary from state to state and Tesla does not write the laws.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Isn't the issue there some 3rd party was producing them and their quality/QC was crap?
HW3 is a tesla designed part, already finished and certified, they just need to spit a bunch of out of chip fab. They should literally be able to get as many as they want pretty much as fast as they want them.
The only backlog at all once they start the upgrades would be service center time- and since we know rangers can do the work too that shouldn't be all that bad for most folks.
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