Can Tesla Execute on Model 3 in 2018?

[voip-ninja]

Simple poll.

I currently don't believe that Tesla can execute on the Model 3 in 2018.

Successful execution, to me, means that they are able to get to at least 80% of the production numbers they promised for 2018 when they discussed bottlenecks and production ramp with investors early this year.

I have a day 2 preorder that currently shows delivery of first production in May-July and delivery of AWD in "late 2018". AWD would be my preference.

I believe that delivery of 1st production for me will be Aug-Sept and AWD will be Q1 or Q2 of 2019.

Feel free to discuss. This is not a "bash Tesla" thread. This is a realism thread based on what we currently know about where Tesla is at in Model 3 production.

 

[McRat]

Until the production actually ramps up it's really hard to say.
They will be exporting this year according to plans, and there is now a backlog of employees, investors, existing Tesla owners, and future Tesla MS/X owners that are ahead in the queue, even ahead of line waiters. Day Two probably needs to service at least 100,000 'new' customers plus all the existing 'immediate order' queued buyers.

But I'd say your estimate is probably not too far off. You should get an invite in July or Aug if they don't export before then.

It is sort of depressing that line waiting and early on-line will see very little advantage to putting in a reservation 2 years ago.

I would imagine that the actual queue will be more akin to a Referral by this summer. If you get a owner or new buyer to help you, you will get your car quickly whether or not you waited. Then those folk will have their unused reservation available too.

 

[erthquake]

Simple poll.

I currently don't believe that Tesla can execute on the Model 3 in 2018.

Successful execution, to me, means that they are able to get to at least 80% of the production numbers they promised for 2018 when they discussed bottlenecks and production ramp with investors early this year.

I have a day 2 preorder that currently shows delivery of first production in May-July and delivery of AWD in "late 2018". AWD would be my preference.

I believe that delivery of 1st production for me will be Aug-Sept and AWD will be Q1 or Q2 of 2019.

Feel free to discuss. This is not a "bash Tesla" thread. This is a realism thread based on what we currently know about where Tesla is at in Model 3 production.

So your saying the production rate will 4k/week by the end of June? That's 80% of their 5k/week guidance.

 

[Zero CO2]

I seem to remember a while back that Telsa decided to skip a commonly accepted pre-production test/process that other car manufacturers complete....I am not in the car business so i don't understand the terminology.... but in my business Telecom you don't skip development steps without serious deployment/operations penalties

I think we may be seeing the results of skipping steps to "save time and money" you cant skip steps if you want success.

 

[mongo]

I seem to remember a while back that Telsa decided to skip a commonly accepted pre-production test/process that other car manufacturers complete....I am not in the car business so i don't understand the terminology.... but in my business Telecom you don't skip development steps without serious deployment/operations penalties

I think we may be seeing the results of skipping steps to "save time and money" you cant skip steps if you want success.

Normal: 'Soft' tooling for prototype/ verification, then 'Hard' tooling for production
Accelerated: 'Hard' tooling for prototype, if it works you are done, if not it cost more in time and money to redo it.

Hard and soft referring to longevity of tool 10s or parts vs 100s of thousands.
Soft cost less, but still takes time to build.

Tesla still tested everything, they just rolled the dice (so to speak, I'm sure a lot of engineering went into it so it was low risk) on pulling it off with one round of tooling.

 

[ninefiveone]

Given that Tesla wants to build cars similar to how software is built (rolling constant improvements), I suspect they didn’t roll the dice with soft tooling. They chose it explicitly. They are assuming that enough things will change (and they want that constant change) that investing in hard tooling at the outset doesn’t make sense.

They don’t see it as skipping steps. They see it as doing it better. Whether it’s really better or not remains to be seen but I applaud the willingness to try.

As for the OP’s poll... the better question is whether hitting 80% of projected matters or not. I doubt that metric matters. It will be rate of production improvement that matters.

 

[mrtian97]

I am in the opinion that Tesla should take their time to make sure they produce quality products. Quality over qty. the demands will be there and considering they are a growing company in term of production level, they will go through growing pains.

 

[mongo]

Given that Tesla wants to build cars similar to how software is built (rolling constant improvements), I suspect they didn’t roll the dice with soft tooling. They chose it explicitly. They are assuming that enough things will change (and they want that constant change) that investing in hard tooling at the outset doesn’t make sense.

They don’t see it as skipping steps. They see it as doing it better. Whether it’s really better or not remains to be seen but I applaud the willingness to try.

As for the OP’s poll... the better question is whether hitting 80% of projected matters or not. I doubt that metric matters. It will be rate of production improvement that matters.

The step they avoided is there for program management risk mitigation. Their planning paid off in proper tools, and they shaved a bunch of time off of the development. The tooling itself is for things like frame or body panels which do not change and plastic parts which likewise stay as-is. Soft tooling does not support the same lifetime or tolerance level as hard, so I doubt they are using soft for production.
Lots of articles out there with the details.

 

[voip-ninja]

So your saying the production rate will 4k/week by the end of June? That's 80% of their 5k/week guidance.

I am saying that if Tesla claimed they would build 200,000 Model 3 cars in 2018, with their most recent guidance, they will build 160,000, at most.

Also, the poll is not about them hitting 80% numbers, the poll is whether you believe they can execute on their Model-3 guidance. Your own benchmark of that is whatever you think it is.

 

[Runt8]

I believe they will hit their stated numbers, or change them

 

[erthquake]

I am saying that if Tesla claimed they would build 200,000 Model 3 cars in 2018, with their most recent guidance, they will build 160,000, at most.

Also, the poll is not about them hitting 80% numbers, the poll is whether you believe they can execute on their Model-3 guidance. Your own benchmark of that is whatever you think it is.

Where do you see 200k as their most recent guidance? Their Q4 2017 letter says 2.5k/week by end of Q1, and 5k/week by end of Q2. Assuming 1 week shutdown each quarter, that works out to 150k cars for Q2-Q4. Let's assume they make 10k in Q1, so that would make their guidance about 160k Model for 2018. I believe they can achieve that.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...A-CB3CDC1B919F/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-4Q.pdf

 

[voip-ninja]

Where do you see 200k as their most recent guidance? Their Q4 2017 letter says 2.5k/week by end of Q1, and 5k/week by end of Q2. Assuming 1 week shutdown each quarter, that works out to 150k cars for Q2-Q4. Let's assume they make 10k in Q1, so that would make their guidance about 160k Model for 2018. I believe they can achieve that.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...A-CB3CDC1B919F/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-4Q.pdf

200K was an arbitrary number used simply as an example.

Based on your numbers, I don't think they will build more than 128,000 M3 cars this year.

 

[WileyTheMan]

Can they "execute" in 2018? Yes they already are. Can they hit the numbers they were forecasting by the end of 2018? Probably not.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

2018 in Elon Time, yes.
In common Earth Time.....not a chance.

 

[voip-ninja]

Can they "execute" in 2018? Yes they already are. Can they hit the numbers they were forecasting by the end of 2018? Probably not.

If they aren't hitting their numbers they are not successfully executing. My opinion anyway.

If they forecast 160,000 Model 3s and build 25% of that would you still feel they 'executed'? Where do you draw the line?

 

[eSpiritIV]

Simple poll.

I currently don't believe that Tesla can execute on the Model 3 in 2018.

Successful execution, to me, means that they are able to get to at least 80% of the production numbers they promised for 2018 when they discussed bottlenecks and production ramp with investors early this year.

I have a day 2 preorder that currently shows delivery of first production in May-July and delivery of AWD in "late 2018". AWD would be my preference.

I believe that delivery of 1st production for me will be Aug-Sept and AWD will be Q1 or Q2 of 2019.

Feel free to discuss. This is not a "bash Tesla" thread. This is a realism thread based on what we currently know about where Tesla is at in Model 3 production.

Here is the question have you got a configuration email yet?

 

[erthquake]

To me, executing means they are producing at whatever sustained rate they need to produce 25% gross margins. Apparently that rate is somewhere between 3.5k-5k/week.

 

[Cheburashka]

Tesla can't really execute anything it promises so there is no reason to think they will meet whatever their production guidance is.

Let's keep in mind that AP2 is still not really at parity with AP1... just saying!

And the "$35K" Model 3 hasn't even been shown to the public yet.

 

[erthquake]

Tesla can't really execute anything it promises so there is no reason to think they will meet whatever their production guidance is.

Let's keep in mind that AP2 is still not really at parity with AP1... just saying!

And the "$35K" Model 3 hasn't even been shown to the public yet.

You should do more reading. AP2 is exceeding AP1 especially on cloverleaf off-ramps.

 

[Cheburashka]

You should do more reading. AP2 is exceeding AP1 especially on cloverleaf off-ramps.

"Exceeding" is very relative and subjective in this case. It still can't read speed signs or display vehicles in other lanes. Sad!