Cancelling my reservation

[bonnie]

I checked the 2016 prototype reveal event video on YouTube, and $35k was indeed the price that Elon stated. No mention of tax credits.

Thanks for the confirmation. That's how I remembered it.

When you're so used to hearing the tax credit factored in, you note when it's not mentioned.

 

[daniel]

But did he? I specifically remember during all the Model 3 announcements thinking it was unusual he wasn't bringing up the federal tax credit, because Tesla has always factored that into the cost of ownership when talking about the S or the X. And then, of course, I realized it was because it was expiring and wouldn't be true for everyone.

He might have, but if he did, I missed it. But this forum sure did factor that in. We definitely did that. We amplified that message. Lots and lots of posts about it and timing. So I'm sure a large number of those wanting the base $35k model looked at timing and assumed (or hoped) that they'd get the credit, too. And then of course Tesla started with the higher optioned cars and dashed those hopes.

Obviously I could have missed Tesla announcing that the $35K model would be even cheaper with credits. But I just don't remember seeing/hearing that. And I do remember noting they weren't mentioning the credit when talking about the 3. (Apologies if I got that wrong, of course.)

I checked the 2016 prototype reveal event video on YouTube, and $35k was indeed the price that Elon stated. No mention of tax credits.

I stand corrected. I "remembered" what I thought I heard, maybe because the tax credit has been touted as part of the "price" for all Teslas up to now.

At the time of the reveal, when people were standing in line, were people told that they'd have to wait for the SR version until basically all orders had been filled for the LR version? I know I was surprised when I learned that the first production cars, lasting for at least a few months, and now looking like much longer, would only be available as they are (LR battery, premium interior, RWD). My first choice would have been LR battery, AWD, EAP, and no premium interior. I'd also prefer a sun roof or moon roof but no glass roof. And there are some controls I really think should be on physical controls rather than on the touch screen. I expect to love my Model 3, but it's not my first choice of configuration. In the end, EAP was the reason I decided not to wait.

I still sympathize with people who stood in line in the reasonable expectation of having a $35K car much sooner than it appears they will. And while I'm delighted to have jumped the line by being an owner (I didn't stand in line) I don't think it's really fair that I got in ahead of line-waiters.

 

[JRP3]

Don't make no promises you can't keep.


A lot of people stood in line for many, many hours on the promise of a $35K Tesla, and the implied promise of a $7,500 tax credit. The reasons Tesla cannot deliver on that are reasonable. But Musk should not have promised what he could not deliver.

There is no such thing as an implied promise. Tesla never promised anyone they would get a $35K Tesla and a $7,500 credit.

 

[JRP3]

I know I was surprised when I learned that the first production cars, lasting for at least a few months, and now looking like much longer, would only be available as they are (LR battery, premium interior, RWD).

You shouldn't have been surprised at all since Tesla has always sold more highly optioned/priced vehicles first. You've been following Tesla long enough to know better. Frankly the only thing that surprised me was that Tesla didn't start out with an even more expensive Founders edition Model 3.

 

[RayK]

My recollection was that we were told, or it was implied, that a fairly well optioned car would be the first to be offered; long range, dual-motors, upgrade options, glass roof, etc. This made sense to me as I think it's easier to remove items from vehicle production, than it is to add them a piece at a time. Of course getting everything right with all of those parts would take time and probably significantly delay the launch.

 

[JRP3]

For what it's worth I recently read somewhere that the SR pack might be coming before the AWD cars.

 

[m34me]

To this day, the official Tesla site says this:
"Designed to attain the highest safety ratings in every category, Model 3 achieves 220 miles of range while starting at only $35,000 before incentives."
I can't imagine how us "poor folks" got misled with the thought of actually getting the still promised 35K car we paid a deposit on AND with the mention of incentives. Which incentives? The tax credits of course.

 

[bonnie]

To this day, the official Tesla site says this:
"Designed to attain the highest safety ratings in every category, Model 3 achieves 220 miles of range while starting at only $35,000 before incentives."
I can't imagine how us "poor folks" got misled with the thought of actually getting the still promised 35K car we paid a deposit on AND with the mention of incentives. Which incentives? The tax credits of course.

Oh stop with the 'poor folks' routine.

Lots of states have incentives. There is nothing there about a $7500 federal credit. You're in California ... have you looked at the incentives that will be in place when you order your Model 3? Yep. You get incentives.

Update:
State & Federal Incentives - Plug In America

 

[m34me]

The "poor folks" quote was from a long time forum member who advised folks to stay away from the Model 3 forum as it was the "poor folks" forum.

 

[MXWing]

Cancellations will happen of course. I'm sure there are people who reserved the Model 3 planning for the $27,500 car. When it turns out that car is not available, it it only natural that they will cancel reservations. Why are people surprised? Time also matters, people need a car and can only wait so long. Once they purchase a new car, it may be many years before they are willing or able to spend money on a new one, so why keep the reservation? That also applies to people who wanted AWD - they may just say "I'll buy me an Audi or a BMW for the next 4 years, then come back to the Model 3" (and please, before I get flamed here, not everyone who buys Tesla's does so to be green - when Elon started Tesla he said it himself, very few people do, hence he set out to create a desirable car that people buy because they want it, not because it's electric).

Anyone who thought Tesla was going to convert 100% of their 400K reservations to sales perhaps fell under Elon's spell a little too hard.

Go configure ANY new car right now from any manufacturer. They all have a 'starting' price for cars that are crippled. By crippled, no one buys a car without the infotainment system. Infotainment system runs a few hundred for actual cost but ends up being a $4000+ price increase.

Worst yet is GM. You do not get the best SAFETY features of a car until you go to their premier trim. What person (especially one with families) compromises on safety features?

Every Tesla has the same infotainment system. Every Tesla is as a safe as any other Tesla.

Personally, if I desired a Tesla I would wait. Look for cheaper Model S options if I truly couldn't. If I had to drive a lesser car for a longer time (RIP Mazda 3), drive Uber part time, go back to ramen/hotdogs - I would do that before settling on an Audi or BMW.

No one believes Tesla will convert 100% of 400K reservations But they will sell more than 400K Model 3s. As people drop off, people add in and more cars on road equates to more brand visibility.

Model 3 was never as inexpensive as people had hoped. The base price is $35,000, but that requires the buyer to choose solid black paint, which a lot of people just won't do. Black cars can get really hot inside during the summer in many parts of the world. Black cars look fantastic when clean, but show dirt and other blemishes very easily. The $1000 paint option upgrade is going to be almost a given for most buyers IMO. There's also a $1000 delivery/document charge. $30 for wheel center caps and lug nut covers for people who prefer the look of traditional alloy wheels and want to leave the aero covers off.

The Model 3 base sticker price is realistically $37,030, and around $40,000 OTD depending on local sales tax rates.

Many people also may not have $7500 in federal tax credit liability. A person with a family and plenty of existing tax breaks for dependent children and home mortgage interest deductions could easily have lower than $7500 in federal income tax. The credit is not refundable as far as I know, so much of it could be wasted.

I confess that I did not wait in line, because I wanted to know exactly what I would be getting at the 35k price point before I put down a deposit. Waiting in line was an act of faith.

This may cost Tesla at the lower end of the market, but the unfortunate reality is that it may not matter. Tesla makes more $ by converting BMW and Benz buyers than it does by converting Accord and Camry buyers.

As mentioned above. NO car is ever as 'inexpensive' as advertised. Black is my favorite car color except for the dirt and blemish. I am considering Black with xpel stealth but I digress. I remember Elon specifically thinking ASP is going to be 42K.

Even though Tesla can technically produce a car that sells for $35K, it is not in Tesla's best interest and survival to do so. At least not *UNTIL* they have 10K cars produced in a month and where they can leverage declining cost of components and economies of scale. Even then, count on nagging and free trials (Tesla version of Sirius XM) of EAP and FSD to try and swing that extra $8000.

We both know that people in general are very bad at math and very bad at reading fine prints. Whether they qualify or not for the credit, they won't actually figure that out until the night they do taxes.

Tesla will not win an attrition war based on volume for a very very long time. My friend who works at Toyota says they can produce a car in under 2 minutes. Gunning for Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, 3 Series, A4, C class etc is the move to make.

 

[bonnie]

The "poor folks" quote was from a long time forum member who advised folks to stay away from the Model 3 forum as it was the "poor folks" forum.

Right. But it was one person & not a forum sentiment. There are lots of 'one person' quotes that don't represent the forum viewpoint.

For the record, I know lots of people getting the Model 3 because it's the right size for them. They don't want the falcon wing doors of the X and the S is too big. It has nothing to do with income. I also know Model S and X buyers who stretched well beyond what most would say was affordable for them. So no judgment from most of us.

But continuing to use that 'poor folks' quote will tell new Model 3 owners joining this forum that somehow the forum thinks of them as a diff group. And that's not true.

I'm sure it stung when said. It was inappropriate. And hopefully we can let that be a thing of the past.

Edit: And I'd be remiss not to mention the Roadster area of the forum. Income is not part of the discussion there. Some are getting Model 3s. And you won't find a nicer group of helpful people than the original Roadster owners.

 

[MXWing]

Don't make no promises you can't keep.

A lot of people stood in line for many, many hours on the promise of a $35K Tesla, and the implied promise of a $7,500 tax credit. The reasons Tesla cannot deliver on that are reasonable. But Musk should not have promised what he could not deliver. I remain firmly in the Tesla camp. But I can understand the people who will be angry that they were promised something that they may not get.

Tesla will definitely produce a $35K Model 3, but possibly not soon enough to get the tax credit. I think MXWing casts these people in the wrong light. I don't think it's "I want it and I don't care." It's "You made me a promise. I put down $1,000. And now I won't be able to afford the car." Such people have a legitimate gripe. They trusted Tesla and Tesla let them down because it made them a promise it could not keep.

Of course, Tesla may yet be able to keep that promise. If they can tool up to produce the SR version and make a decision that at the very least those Day-1 line-waiters have to get the opportunity to get a $35K car before the tax credit runs out. I don't know if this is possible. But if the tax credit runs out before these people get the chance to get the base model car then Tesla has broken its promise.

Don't make no promises you can't keep. Unless you really don't care about your reputation and your public image. Musk made a big mistake when he promised something he could not deliver, a $35K car before the expiration of the federal tax credit.

People stand in line for many hours for many things much less tangible than a Model 3. Movie's (midnight showing of LOTR woooooo), free ice cream days (6 figure software engineers I've seen do this), 8 hours for a 5 minute ride (Toy Story Midway Mania @ Tokyo Disneysea).

Not to say line waiting shouldn't be appreciated but it's not Congressional Medal of Honor level of sacrifice and bravery.

The $1000 is refundable and I think fairly inconsequential given what the final car is going to cost. I think Tesla is trying and they haven't broken faith. Tesla burns EIGHT THOUSAND DOLLARS per minute. You can't give up 500 million in revenue, or HALF A BILLION if you sell 50,000 $35K SR Model 3s, when you could have sold 50,000 $85K P AWD LR Models.

What Elon wants to do/can provide is different than what Tesla wants do/can provide is different than what TSLA wants to do/can provide.

If I were to take a guess, $35K Model 3 will get half tax credit at best case, 1/4th credit as the worst.

They can keep the promise. They chose not to do so. People are right to judge that as wrong.

What about the promise to ME. As a current owner and TSLA shareholder? Sure they can do just pump out the first 400K Model 3s at $35K. Who is going to be there to service your Model 3 in 3 years when the company is gone?

I promised my son ice cream after dinner the other night. I got a call because our critical infrastructure is down. Did I chose not to keep my promise? The world is more complex than how you portray it and cannot be summed up in your three sentence thesis.

For what it's worth I recently read somewhere that the SR pack might be coming before the AWD cars.

Impossible. No way. I would dump my shares and start buying puts immediately. UNLESS somehow AWD cant be produced and you would have a factory sitting idle otherwise would they make SR cars.

Tesla's job is to produce as many expensive, highest margin cars as they can first. Any deviation from this is a shareholder revolt.

 

[ohmman]

Right. But it was one person & not a forum sentiment.

And to support that, I believe that particular post was moved away by forum moderation. It’s not consistent with the sentiment at TMC.

 

[daniel]

There is no such thing as an implied promise. Tesla never promised anyone they would get a $35K Tesla and a $7,500 credit.

Already been addressed and I acknowledged my mistake. You're beating a dead horse.

... And I'd be remiss not to mention the Roadster area of the forum. Income is not part of the discussion there. Some are getting Model 3s. And you won't find a nicer group of helpful people than the original Roadster owners.

Emphasis mine.

Thank you for the kind words. (Roadster owner here, getting a Model 3 which will replace my Roadster. The Model S is way too big. The Model 3 is still bigger than I'd prefer. But I want EAP, and the Roadster, AFAIK, is the only Tesla that does not get 5-star safety rating in every category, since Tesla did not build the chassis.)

 

[MXWing]

Had to verify this was actually a real thing! I would certainly hope most people would not judge others on their level of wealth. Who knows if said wealth is earned, inherited, achieved through luck. My opinion is wherever you are on the ladder, someone is always below you or above you. All you can do is to aspire to go higher and that's something we must do as individuals.



I think to be perfectly realistic when purchasing a Model 3 is count only the fixed variables and plan for worst case.
$35,000 (Car)
$2,712.5 (Taxes)
+Registration
+Charging Infrastructure
+Interest on all the above
+Increased insurance costs

If you cannot afford the full retail cost as stated above, I do not believe one should be purchasing a Model 3. It is not a judgment on rich vs poor but - responsibility vs irresponsibility.

It would be irresponsible to count on incentives, discounts or anything else that may/may not be there when you take delivery of the vehicle.

For that reason, I do not factor my "bonuses" into my financial strategies. Whatever extra incentives one gets, pour it into the principal and consider it a bonus because that's what it is.

It really should be called $0/$1750/$3500/$7,500 Tax Credit Bonus up to your tax liability due to the nature of the subsidy being credit against existing obligations and not a deduction and not a rebate which may or may not apply to your situation. *

* - contact your CPA for all terms, conditions, limitations.

 

[Sudre]

Half to say I skipped to the end after reading a post around page four that someone can not afford a Model 3 without the incentives that cost's over 35K BUT they are going to buy a $36,000-$40,000 ICE instead without incentives because that's what their wife wants anyway.

My issue? Every smart guy knows you buy your wife what she wants! A Model 3 was never an option to start with. Particularly if the mother-in-law isn't on your side.

Also to the line waiters that can't wait no more. When I was in line on day one, the production rate and estimates were basically where we are now. Somehow everyone seems to have completely forgot that the time table was pushed up AFTER the line waiters reserved. The "bottleneck" has put us back on the original schedule.

 

[m34me]

Right. But it was one person & not a forum sentiment. There are lots of 'one person' quotes that don't represent the forum viewpoint.

For the record, I know lots of people getting the Model 3 because it's the right size for them. They don't want the falcon wing doors of the X and the S is too big. It has nothing to do with income. I also know Model S and X buyers who stretched well beyond what most would say was affordable for them. So no judgment from most of us.

But continuing to use that 'poor folks' quote will tell new Model 3 owners joining this forum that somehow the forum thinks of them as a diff group. And that's not true.

I'm sure it stung when said. It was inappropriate. And hopefully we can let that be a thing of the past.

Edit: And I'd be remiss not to mention the Roadster area of the forum. Income is not part of the discussion there. Some are getting Model 3s. And you won't find a nicer group of helpful people than the original Roadster owners.

Thanks Bonnie, it did sting. From what I've seen this person was an anomaly and you have been an example of the good folks on here
There are trolls and TESLA shorts on here stirring up trouble (I am on a long holding shareholder FWIW), but many of us are just disappointed in this cycle of delays and pushbacks. I will hold my reservation until the bitter end. I want EV to succeed and although his overpromising is annoying, I hold Elon in great respect as one of very few visionaries who can deliver, albeit in Elon Time sometimes.

 

[u00mem9]

I promised my son ice cream after dinner the other night. I got a call because our critical infrastructure is down. Did I chose not to keep my promise?

Yes. Obviously.


I think you are trying to say one can get into a situation where you can’t meet all the promises you make. Duh.

That situation is increasingly likely when you go around making lots of claims and promises without any idea what it takes to accomplish them. See FSD for more information.

 

[MXWing]

Yes. Obviously.


I think you are trying to say one can get into a situation where you can’t meet all the promises you make. Duh.

That situation is increasingly likely when you go around making lots of claims and promises without any idea what it takes to accomplish them. See FSD for more information.

You quoted half my response.

The first half was:

What about the promise to ME. As a current owner and TSLA shareholder? Sure they can do just pump out the first 400K Model 3s at $35K. Who is going to be there to service your Model 3 in 3 years when the company is gone?

There's actually an easy remedy to make you 'whole again' if Tesla has slighted you so much. Cancel your reservation and get your deposit back.

If your eyes weren't open regarding Tesla and their "incredibly optimistic self imposed deadlines they struggle to meet" they are now.

I don't look at emotional things like my "BUT ELON PROMISED. HE LIED. I WANT MY MODEL 3. WAAAA"

I look at their production capability. I look at their demand. I look at their -4.03 EPS. It's clear what they need to do to survive. Making your strip model, negative margin Model 3 is not on any person with common sense list of priorities.

Delaying a promise due to inconvenience = Not good.
Delaying a promise due to avoiding suicidal implosion = Rational.

Surely you understand the difference between the two?

 

[u00mem9]

There's actually an easy remedy to make you 'whole again' if Tesla has slighted you so much. Cancel your reservation and get your deposit back.

I did cancel...see earlier post. Like you, I hope they are able to meet their existing obligations to the unlimited mile power train warranty and unlimited supercharging for life on my Model S.

Every quarterly call where someone says something ignorant like “battery production output per cubic foot” (of worthless Nevada desert!) makes me a little less confident the new owners of the Tesla brand will honor those obligations after takeover.