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Cancelling my reservation

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Also to the line waiters that can't wait no more. When I was in line on day one, the production rate and estimates were basically where we are now. Somehow everyone seems to have completely forgot that the time table was pushed up AFTER the line waiters reserved. The "bottleneck" has put us back on the original schedule.
Actually 2020 was the original target date.

"... As a result of the high demand for Model 3, in May 2016 Tesla announced its decision to advance its 500,000 total-unit build plan (combined for Model S, Model X, and Model 3) to 2018, two years earlier than previously planned, in order to accelerate its target for Model 3 output."

So 2018 was/is the accelerated target date for those standing in line.
 
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"Even though Tesla can technically produce a car that sells for $35K".
We dont know if that is true as of now do we?

Yes they can. They will just lose money on it. Too low margin (if not negative) at current production levels and economies of scale.
Technically: Yes. Practical: No.

Most of my downvotes/disagrees are from the investor forum folks who do not want to agree with the notion that Tesla loses money on $35K cars.

One does not install AP2.5 Hardware at exuberant costs (do you know how much GPU's cost?!?!?) for someone to not spend a minimum of $5K on at least EAP.

In hindsight, I wish Tesla would of just said the car is $40K starting price and comes with EAP standard.

Elon specifically said he expected the minimum purchase price to be either 42K or 46K (I don't recall exactly) that would cover EAP, changing the paint color and either AWD or PUP.
 
For what it's worth I recently read somewhere that the SR pack might be coming before the AWD cars.
I had not heard anything like that. In fact the opposite when they reordered dates. If Tesla had given this indication I would not have purchased the new ICE car I just got over the weekend. It wasn't the delay that pushed me over the line, it was the reordering any new configurations they could think of ahead of the SR model.
 
Definitely underestimated how difficult finding a replacement for the Model 3 would be since all non-newer Tesla options just kinda suck...

But I think that our post-cancellation odyssey might be leading us to the Volvo XC40! Seems like the best ICE bang for the buck, and it's size could make it perfect for our city life/occasional desire to utilize AWD for trips over the mountains. Only things left to figure out are if we'll lease or test the Volvo Care subscription (most attractive features here are no real down payment, no maintenance concerns, and possibly get to upgrade to an all-electric Volvo 24 months later) and see/sit in one to evaluate how well 2 rear-facing car seats fit.

Other than being an ICE, which really does suck, it seems like a much better overall car for us than the 3 right now, including not having to buy it via a loan. We've leased and bought, and don't plan to ever buy a car again.
 
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Elon specifically said he expected the minimum purchase price to be either 42K or 46K (I don't recall exactly) that would cover EAP, changing the paint color and either AWD or PUP.
No he didn't.

He said he thought the average selling price with "options mix" will be "prob 42k". That doesn't mean in any form or fashion that the minimum purchase price is $42K.

-Jim
 
Definitely underestimated how difficult finding a replacement for the Model 3 would be since all non-newer Tesla options just kinda suck...

But I think that our post-cancellation odyssey might be leading us to the Volvo XC40! Seems like the best ICE bang for the buck, and it's size could make it perfect for our city life/occasional desire to utilize AWD for trips over the mountains. Only things left to figure out are if we'll lease or test the Volvo Care subscription (most attractive features here are no real down payment, no maintenance concerns, and possibly get to upgrade to an all-electric Volvo 24 months later) and see/sit in one to evaluate how well 2 rear-facing car seats fit.

Other than being an ICE, which really does suck, it seems like a much better overall car for us than the 3 right now, including not having to buy it via a loan. We've leased and bought, and don't plan to ever buy a car again.


We saw this SUV at the Toronto auto show... and was very impressed, I have never owned a Volvo before and we are considering it. Electric version would be a definite!!!!
 
No he didn't.

He said he thought the average selling price with "options mix" will be "prob 42k". That doesn't mean in any form or fashion that the minimum purchase price is $42K.

-Jim
Yeah, "prob $42k" as an average selling price based on selected options is what I remember as well. I did not line up to reserve a pre-tax credit $42k vehicle, and I think Elon knew that me and others like me wouldn't have lined up to reserve a $42k Tesla. The groundswell of interest on 3/31/2016 was for a $35k Tesla, and the long lines were probably due to a lot of people hoping to snag the full federal tax credit on one and lower the cost even more. I have no financial interest in Tesla's success or failure - but I still want them to succeed(!) - but even after cancelling I still find it very disappointing to think about how this has played out.
 
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We saw this SUV at the Toronto auto show... and was very impressed, I have never owned a Volvo before and we are considering it. Electric version would be a definite!!!!
I've never owned or had an interest in a Volvo before I discovered this vehicle. Apparently test drives will be available in the Seattle area in mid-March. Car seat fit will be the deciding factor for us I think.
 
Yeah, "prob $42k" is what I remember as well. I did not line up to reserve a pre-tax credit $42k vehicle, and I think Elon knew that me and others like me wouldn't have lined up to reserve a $42k Tesla. The groundswell of interest on 3/31/2016 was for a $35k Tesla, and the long lines were probably due to a lot of people hoping to snag the full federal tax credit on one and lower the cost even more. I have no financial interest in Tesla and still want them to succeed, but even after cancelling I still find it very disappointing to think about how this has played out.
When all is said and done, if there is a 35K Model 3 for sale come Jan 1 2019, would you lease?
 
When all is said and done, if there is a 35K Model 3 for sale come Jan 1 2019, would you lease?
Probably not, since we plan to remain a 1-car family and need a new car to accommodate a new baby no later than July 2018.

However, if my last delay estimate had said in some way that a lease option would be available on a higher priced Model 3 at the time we would be invited to configure (last estimate for LR PUP for us was March-May), I probably would not have cancelled my early morning day 1 reservation a few weeks ago.
 
Probably not, since we plan to remain a 1-car family and need a new car to accommodate a new baby no later than July 2018.

However, if my last delay estimate had said in some way that a lease option would be available on a higher priced Model 3 at the time we would be invited to configure (last estimate for LR PUP for us was March-May), I probably would not have cancelled my early morning day 1 reservation a few weeks ago.
Ah, fair enough. I switched from a 2 door car to a 4 door shortly after having our son, so I know how important timing is.
 
No he didn't.

He said he thought the average selling price with "options mix" will be "prob 42k". That doesn't mean in any form or fashion that the minimum purchase price is $42K.

-Jim

Right now, the minimum purchase price is $49K. They can maintain that for a long time or even increase it by adding P and AWD to the mix.

I should have said 'average selling price' vs minimum selling price but its just comparing explicit versus implicit pricing.
 
Heck, I'm interested - there will be plenty more reservation holders that sheer away and get an ICE while waiting - what car did you get?...and how do you like it?
I've always liked small cars that handle well. We've had VW Golfs in the past and sold our last one to lease a Nissan LEAF which we also liked very much. We bought a new previous model year Golf at a huge discount and with a great trade in allowance, so it actually cost us only a few thousand.
We had a chance to check out several Model 3s in great detail the previous weekend at a owners local meet up. The interior size and materials are actually quite similar between the Model 3 and the Golf we bought. It handles fairly well. Not very fuel efficient. Acceleration isn't comparable, but thats not a huge requirement to me. I am enjoying CarPlay a great deal so far. I think I will quickly get spoiled by it. Voice recognition has been perfect so far for texting, navigation and running music services including Pandora, Spotify, iHeartRadio, Stitcher.
I justified it thinking that I'll use it for 2-3 years. By then the Model 3 should be readily available and bugs worked out. Maybe the Model Y will be out. My teenage son might be old enough to warrant his own car and I can get the Model 3/Y.
 
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Yes they can. They will just lose money on it. Too low margin (if not negative) at current production levels and economies of scale.
Technically: Yes. Practical: No.

Most of my downvotes/disagrees are from the investor forum folks who do not want to agree with the notion that Tesla loses money on $35K cars.

One does not install AP2.5 Hardware at exuberant costs (do you know how much GPU's cost?!?!?) for someone to not spend a minimum of $5K on at least EAP.

In hindsight, I wish Tesla would of just said the car is $40K starting price and comes with EAP standard.

Elon specifically said he expected the minimum purchase price to be either 42K or 46K (I don't recall exactly) that would cover EAP, changing the paint color and either AWD or PUP.
I think this totally misses the point. Tesla can and will produce a $35K version of the Model 3 but many if not most of the potential buyers will choose not to buy it. I’ve had my Model 3 for 3 weeks and my Model S for 2.5 years. My conclusion is that I would not buy another S. The 3 is just too good a vehicle to pay the extra 30K for the S. Tesla has a finite amount of production capacity at this point in time. They are simply producing the vehicle that a majority of early adopters are willing to pay for. Look at a majority of the forum threads. The complaint is that non owners can’t get there hands on a vehicle; not that it cost 57K instead of 35K. If your only objective is to buy an electric car for 35K go buy a Bolt. Neither Tesla or anyone else is going to miss you or your business. I know that sounds harsh but that is reality until Tesla’s production exceeds demand.
 
... I would not buy another S. The 3 is just too good a vehicle to pay the extra 30K for the S. ...

That's very encouraging. Thanks for posting this. (I expect any day now to get a call telling me when my Model 3 will arrive. I'm passing the time reading the owner's manual and seeing all the things I don't like about it. Your post is a good antidote to that.)