Cannibalization of Model S sales

[nigelsilva]

So what you are saying is that all Tesla has to do to sell more Model S now is provide Model 3 test drives to current reservation holders, to shake loose those impending Model S sales?

Unfortunately, even if this were the case, we won't be seeing Model 3s in the showrooms anytime soon. I'm not sold on the idea of Model 3 test drives giving incentive for people to upgrade to an S. If anything it will make the people waiting more impatient and excited, but for those who chose the 3 for financial reasons, it's not going to change reality. For those who just want to get into a Tesla, it may or may not entice them to upgrade, but it's such a minority I doubt it would make a noticeable difference. I gave my opinion above as to a few reasons why people might opt for a CPO or inventory S as opposed to a heavily optioned 3. Now in its base form I think the 3 is the PERFECT entry level Tesla. Just enough goodies to put it several steps ahead of competitors, without being overly expensive. I spent a couple hours in the local dealership today chatting with some of the employees and I can't decide if I'm scared or excited based on the incredible amount of people displaying interest in the 3.. There will be lots of Teslas driving around in these next couple of years.

 

[nigelsilva]

Two different cars and two different buyers...for the most part. There will be some overlap just because of the “I want an EV”, particularly a Tesla EV, so I will stretch, or get a bigger car than I need or really want. 7 series BMW and 3 series BMW seems a more reasonable analogy here. I guess some are saying the 3 is “as good” or “better” than the S but I don’t see the 3 as a successor to the S, just a smaller, different Tesla EV, for a different buyer.

I like the analogy of the 3-series compared to 7-series. Nobody accused the 3-series (or even 5-series, a much more similar car to the 7) of cutting into 7-series sales. My guess is that we'll see buyers who purchase a base + one or two options Model 3 for around 40k instead of other entry level lux/sportyish sedans, and possible 5/7series/s-class (etc.) buyers purchasing heavily optioned Model S variants for 80-150k

 

[Saimaannorppa]

So what you are saying is that all Tesla has to do to sell more Model S now is provide Model 3 test drives to current reservation holders, to shake loose those impending Model S sales?

People on the fence for a brand new S or 3 are probably a relatively small group, because of big price difference.

OP was worried about CPO prices of S, and those in market for same price range CPO or a Model 3, may be holding out until they can check out the 3. Once this is possible, many will opt for an S, which drives demand for CPOs higher.