Charity bet #3: first Starship in orbit (redux)

[Cosmacelf]

And another one bites the dust. Sorry @ICUDoc. March 2023 is still open though if you want to join the double down club! Remember, the bet isn’t only about launch, it is also about surviving intact to splash down in Hawaii, which is an as hard if not a harder problem. The first launch has at most a 50% chance of succeeding with this bet.

 

[ICUDoc]

And another one bites the dust. Sorry @ICUDoc. March 2023 is still open though if you want to join the double down club! Remember, the bet isn’t only about launch, it is also about surviving intact to splash down in Hawaii, which is an as hard if not a harder problem. The first launch has at most a 50% chance of succeeding with this bet.

Yup, I'm up for another crack at his.
March 13 2023 it is!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yup, I'm up for another crack at his.
March 13 2023 it is!

Awesome! Come on Elon, we need to start retiring some of these bets!

 

[Electroman]

Q2 next year

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600906851943579649

 

[Cosmacelf]

And @Grendal is the latest to bite the dust for this bet. I will most likely join him soon enough since it doesn't look like December is going to happen either. We still have July 2023 available for the pessimistic (or is it realistic) person out there.

 

[Grendal]

I'll take July 2023. Since I'm out of the primary run.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'll take July 2023. Since I'm out of the primary run.

Ack, I missed a month there. May 2023 is actually available too. Let me know which one you want Grendal.

 

[Grendal]

Ack, I missed a month there. May 2023 is actually available too. Let me know which one you want Grendal.

I'll stick with July.
Thanks.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I have crashed and burned twice now with this bet. Third times the charm? I now have May 2023…

 

[Cosmacelf]

And the delays March on…

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611931024514060289

 

[scaesare]

And the delays March on…

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611931024514060289

How do I mark a post informative and disappointing at the same time? lol

 

[EVCollies]

Not looking good for us electrified collies, who is next?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Not looking good for us electrified collies, who is next?

@DandAQ has February. I think I have May as a repeat. First post is kept updated.

 

[DandAQ]

Well, I have to admit to being (even more) excited about the possibility of a launch in February. Somewhat frustratingly we are in Thailand and Laos for a small ship cruise on the Mekong until 17th Feb and I have absolutely no idea how good WiFi will be on board. Needless to say I really want to watch the flight in real time if at all possible. I watch any YouTube channels about SpaceX and monitor this forum daily. One good thing about being retired.

The absolutely perfect date would be 13 Feb, since that's my birthday!

 

[Electroman]

It won't launch in Feb. Why? look at post #32. That is why

 

[DandAQ]

Hah!!😂😂

You might well be correct, but I’m going to be hoping every day until 1 March 2023!

 

[Electroman]

Ma

Thanks. Read the rules. April 2023.

A a slip here and a delay there.. I could look like a hero

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621998434289942529

 

[Cosmacelf]

Looks like latest estimate at first attempt will be March. But do note that the rocket has to actually make to it (pseudo) orbit and do a re-entry without blowing up for this bet to count. So plenty of room for possible winners yet.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622373225438089216

 

[Electroman]

Well then we are looking at 2024 !

 

[Cosmacelf]

And @DandAQ bites the dust leaving @ICUDoc in the catbird seat. August 2023 and beyond are still unclaimed, hopefully we won't have to go there...

It is getting close to when I should open up a bet on when SpaceX will spin off Starlink. It could very well happen next year. I'll wait a few months I think before starting up that one - what do you guys think?