Charity bet #4: First Successful Starship Landing

[adiggs]

A discussion thread to figure out what our next charity bet regarding Starship progress will be, along with any updates to how we conduct and judge the bet. As the winner of bet #3 I get to start this discussion.


My primary contribution is the mechanics side. What the bet itself will be - we'll need suggestions / proposals about that.

For the conduct of the bet, I don't like Price is Right rules. I've been the beneficiary by choosing the most ridiculously far out date in this round, but it encourages gaming the system, and that's not in the spirit of things (I chose using my wife's birthday - I wasn't consciously choosing based on Price is Right rules).

For this bet, what I would l like to do:
- Each participant chooses a year/month combo when the event will occur
- One contestant per month/year (get your votes in early!)
- The winner is the one that picks the month/year (or no winner if the event occurs in a month/year with no contestant)
- No Price is Right or nearest participant. Somebody gets the month/year right or not
- In the no-winner scenario then we just start up another charity bet
-- Heck - we could even have a few of these going at once! After all if we have a range of 24 months, that's a long time to wait on a victor. More victors, more help for charities that most of us have never heard of.

Others?


As a practical matter, I think the month/year combo will make the actual winner much more random. It's easy to be off by 1 month

The previous charity bets have had a relatively small number of participants. A suggestion elsewhere is to do some advertising in busier sections (investor thread) of the forum to draw in some additional participants (bigger results for the winner's charity!).


Once we settle on a topic / event for the next bet, we'll either start a new thread for that, or rename this one and start taking contestants.

---- Above retained for history and stuffs--.
Now the First Starship Landing thread.

Entries:
- ICUDoc. January 2023
- adiggs. June 2023
- Cosmacelf. Aug 2023
- Grendal. October 2023
- EVCollies. January 2024

 

[adiggs]

Actually - my first suggestion is that we restart bet #3 using the updated rules. That's a good milestone with relatively easy to measure success, and its something we know that we like.

But there's also no reason not to identify an additional important milestone (or 2!) and start one up for that.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Actually - my first suggestion is that we restart bet #3 using the updated rules. That's a good milestone with relatively easy to measure success, and its something we know that we like.

But there's also no reason not to identify an additional important milestone (or 2!) and start one up for that.

Let’s do two concurrent bets then. Restart bet #3 (and remember, it has to actually get to orbit, or SpaceX’s definition thereof, and not blow up on the way there), and then have a concurrent bet for first booster landing. You could even another concurrent bet for first Starship catch.

 

[ICUDoc]

Stay on this thread- I trust you people.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The reason we only had six people in the last bet was that I had to cut it off after new information came out that would have impacted people’s choices (Which turned out to be completely inaccurate, but anyways). However with this new format of only being able to pick a month, and early pickers get the seemingly best choices, we should be able to open the bet for quite a bit longer.

 

[EVCollies]

I would prefer a bet over a lottery. Many times loser here.

 

[Grendal]

I would prefer a bet over a lottery. Many times loser here.

The money goes to a charity. So it's a win even when we lose.

 

[adiggs]

Let’s do two concurrent bets then. Restart bet #3 (and remember, it has to actually get to orbit, or SpaceX’s definition thereof, and not blow up on the way there), and then have a concurrent bet for first booster landing. You could even another concurrent bet for first Starship catch.

Stay on this thread- I trust you people.

Looks to me like we really need 2 threads. The first for tracking the restart of bet #3 (Starship reaches orbit) and this thread for the first successful landing. I suppose there is a non-zero chance that both of these bets are won in the same launch.

EDIT: I checked and I don't have the power to change the thread title. I can edit the contents but not the title.

@Grendal would you rename this thread to "Charity bet #4: First successful Starship landing"?


Heck - I'll even volunteer to update the first post with names and months as people make their guess.

Who would like to create the "Charity bet #3: first Starship in orbit (redux)"? Or something like that.


And considering the lack of additional comment on the updated 'rules' for conducting the bets, it seems like we've got our new rules.


I suppose I'll stake out my ground now:
-- June 2023 for first Starship landing.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Looks to me like we really need 2 threads. The first for tracking the restart of bet #3 (Starship reaches orbit) and this thread for the first successful landing. I suppose there is a non-zero chance that both of these bets are won in the same launch.

EDIT: I checked and I don't have the power to change the thread title. I can edit the contents but not the title.

@Grendal would you rename this thread to "Charity bet #4: First successful Starship landing"?


Heck - I'll even volunteer to update the first post with names and months as people make their guess.

Who would like to create the "Charity bet #3: first Starship in orbit (redux)"? Or something like that.


And considering the lack of additional comment on the updated 'rules' for conducting the bets, it seems like we've got our new rules.


I suppose I'll stake out my ground now:
-- June 2023 for first Starship landing.

August 2023 for me for First Starship landing (which is a chopstick catch).

I'll create a new bet for first Starship orbit.

And I'll create a new bet for first Starship Booster (intact) landing.

Actually we could also create a new bet for first Starship booster reuse, but I'll wait a bit for that one.

 

[Cosmacelf]

August 2023 for me for First Starship landing (which is a chopstick catch).

I'll create a new bet for first Starship orbit.

And I'll create a new bet for first Starship Booster (intact) landing.

Actually we could also create a new bet for first Starship booster reuse, but I'll wait a bit for that one.

So I created another thread for a redo of the first orbit, but I couldn't help myself and added a new condition. What do you think @adiggs:

• If your month has gone by and you didn't win, you can choose a new month (but now you have to donate $100 if you lose).

 

[adiggs]

So I created another thread for a redo of the first orbit, but I couldn't help myself and added a new condition. What do you think @adiggs:

• If your month has gone by and you didn't win, you can choose a new month (but now you have to donate $100 if you lose).

I love it. Better than what I'd come up with for bets that don't get a winner or are on track to land on a month that has gone unclaimed.

 

[Grendal]

First chopstick landing. Hmm. October 2023.

 

[adiggs]

First Successful Starship Landing - anybody else? 3 entries thus far.

I suppose this one is particularly difficult to predict - presumably there will be a few splashes and explosions before success. Also presumably all that F9 experience will help this go more quickly - fewer splashes and explosions.

All of us are in 2023 thus far - I guess we're betting on an orbit and splash this year, and then a few attempts late in the year / next year to get one to stick.


Note that the chopstick landing is not necessary to win this one. Though I also think it most likely to be that style of landing - why design the rocket to do something other than the long term plan, unless the two designs overlap a lot?

 

[ICUDoc]

May I ask for clarification here- what is the bet? Date of First booster landing after successful orbital insertion? Something else?

 

[Cosmacelf]

May I ask for clarification here- what is the bet? Date of First booster landing after successful orbital insertion? Something else?

No, first Starship landing, which is the second stage. This means a chopstick catch. Presumably this will occur after a first successful booster landing, but who knows.

 

[ICUDoc]

No, first Starship landing, which is the second stage. This means a chopstick catch. Presumably this will occur after a first successful booster landing, but who knows.

Ok, gotcha.
In that case: First successful second stage landing as a chopstick catch will be January 2023
Donation USD100 to chosen charity of the Winner.

 

[Cosmacelf]

We need more people betting on this one…

 

[EVCollies]

Jan 2024, hoping I lose...

 

[adiggs]

Bumping back to the front page and seeking more contestants. Added EVCollies to the contestants list.

 

[adiggs]

Bringing this one back to the top - no contestants have lost yet, but @ICUDoc is coming up soon with Jan 2023. I rate likelihood of success for ICUDoc on this one .... low

Plenty of openings in the schedule coming up should anybody new like to join in the party.


In case it isn't clear (and spelling it out here to get clarity, and get it written down), the difference between this and bet #3 is that one is about reaching orbit, and this is about an actual landing (intact vehicle). Landing in the ocean (after orbit) as the initial F9 landings will be success in bet #3, but not here.

Therefore its also possible to win both bets simultaneously - just need the first starship into orbit to also come down and land successfully (controlled splash in the ocean is not a successful landing for the purpose here).

I suppose to also be clear - this is landing after reaching orbit. More hops, even up to 100km and back down, don't count either.