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Chart for Model 3 reservations — cumulative and hourly

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Nomad, Apr 2, 2016.

  1. Nomad

    Nomad Member

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    I've based the zero hour on 10AM Eastern US time. If anyone has definitive proof of another zero hour that Elon implies in his tweets, I'll update the chart accordingly. I'd love to play around with all of the data Tesla has! :)

    The peak rate for reservations were immediately following the reveal (12,000/hr), the morning after the reveal (7,500/hr), and obviously when the stores first opened in the US (unknown rate, presumably 50,000 to 70,000 per hour).

    Interactive version here: https://goo.gl/6Ykex8
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Model S - Sig. 283 EU

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    Nice graph.

    Minor remark: stores opened in Asia and Europe first, so they provided the first few thousand reservations. A slow start. When US stores opened (more stores, longer lines) the pace picked up. The graph does not show this yet. Not really important though.
     
  3. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    Great graph, thanks for posting it.
     
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  4. Nomad

    Nomad Member

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    Was Australia the first store to offer a reservation? If so, perhaps the time at which it opened is the start time that Musk references in his tweets. I wasn't sure what Musk considers hour 0, so I defaulted to US Eastern. Once I have a firm answer I'll modify the graph.
     
  5. tomp

    tomp Member

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    Nomad - Where is this data coming from?
     
  6. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    From how many data points have you created the graph? It's nice, though.
     
  7. Nomad

    Nomad Member

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    There are 6 data points. The first is the 115,000 mentioned in the livestream. The Verge posted an update at 130,000 based on the live ticker at the event. The subsequent updates are tweets from Elon. The interactive version of the graph allows you to hover over for the exact data.

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Dithermaster

    Dithermaster Member

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    You might want to drop some markers on the lines for where the actual data points are. The nice smooth lines imply many more than 6 data points. Nothing wrong with having only 6; just don't want to imply more than that. If you do add pre-east coast reservations, you could add vertical lines for each time zone that "opened". Clearly US East and West coasts are going to be big ones.
     
  9. ggnykk

    ggnykk Active Member

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    Nice graph
     
  10. Nomad

    Nomad Member

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    Adding markers isn't a bad idea. I toyed with it a bit in Google Docs but ultimately decided against it. I think your argument for them is fair. I'll likely add them in my next revision.

    I was thinking of adding shaded areas for important events—something along the lines of Federal Reserve charts for monetary supply where the shade recessions. I decided against it since the capability isn't built into Google Docs as far as I know. I might see what it looks like manually adding time zone lines, online reservations opening up, and the unveiling.
     
  11. graphix25

    graphix25 Member

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    #11 graphix25, Apr 3, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2016
    Looking at this from a different perspective. Lets assume all 215 global locations (93 in the US i think) are timezone adjusted to an equal time zero. The processing rate for each individual site was a function of the number of processors available at that location and how long it took per transaction. I was 150th in line in Bellevue, WA and took almost exactly one hour from 9:30am to 10:30am PST before my I placed my order for 150 per hour rate. Based on feedback I saw in previous post the order rates ranged from about 60 to 80 to peak of 150 per hour. If i extrapolate 150 sales locations at 100 per hour per site that would put me at about 15,000 in queue the global queue.

    Two additional data points will be provided as you likely already know. Sunday night 3 day total and then one final updated for a 7 day total via Elon's on twitter. I'm thinking 325k for day 3 cumulative orders and near 400k for the 7 day total . The ability to book the first 2 or 3 years of production in the 1st week is pretty darn amazing.
     
  12. SCW-Greg

    SCW-Greg Active Member

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    Nice graph.

    You don't have the data points to confirm, but there would definitely be a stark spike the moment the east coast came online Thursday morning (7am west coast), and would plow through about noon time west coast time (when most of the lines had been handled), then a slowing rate until 7:30pm west coast as they opened web sales - for your spike right after the reveal.
     
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  13. Breezy

    Breezy Member

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    I think zero hour was 10AM daylight saving time in Sydney. That was 3/30/2016 23:00 UTC.

    Australian first person in the world to order Tesla Model 3 electric car
     
  14. Nomad

    Nomad Member

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  15. Cebe

    Cebe Member

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    273k by "the end of Saturday".
     
  16. Nomad

    Nomad Member

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    Thoughts on what that means? Midnight Pacific Time?
     
  17. SCW-Greg

    SCW-Greg Active Member

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    I'm sure. Everything is West coast time for Tesla.
     
  18. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Active Member

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    I'm not sure how anyone else feels however I have mixed feelings.

    I truly feel great for Tesla, however as the number climbs I feel more and more like my single order is shrinking into insignificance.
     
  19. shrspeedblade

    shrspeedblade Member

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    You change the world one small act at a time.
     
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  20. ggnykk

    ggnykk Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    This is a better graph from Electrek.
     
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