Chevy Bolt Article: Is it really so hard to be fair or balanced?

[SageBrush]

Not when workplace charging costs the employee almost seven times what it does to charge at home, the way it does where I work. (9 cents vs 61 cents per kWh). Plus charging at work is a pain in the posterior because you have to move the car when the charging is finished and then try and find a parking space where your car won't get door dings (and when you're in the middle of a crisis, you can't move the car). Of course, if there were a large number of stalls with charging, that particular problem would be reduced, but as it is now, 500 employees, 2 charging stalls. This is basically greenwashing, not a commitment to sustainable transportation.

Now I understand some employers are far better than what I've described, but I'd guess the majority of large companies are more like the one I work for. And a small company won't do it at all unless the owner is into EVs, as some are.

No doubt about it, today is really quite pathetic with few exceptions. But the idea is sound and cheap technical solutions exist to solve the problems you mention. Did you see the report of distributed charging implemented recently at a Cal-Tech garage ? VERY spiffy. Scale also helps solve the variable load issues grids currently face that result in high charging costs.

 

[SageBrush]

The Leaf owners I know get less than 4 miles/kWh unless they are very careful.

Our LEAF is a local car driven by my wife and has a lifetime 5.2 kWh/mile
My Prius Prime is a work commuter car and has a lifetime 5.2 kWh/mile
I bet the Model 3 EPA will be ~ 4 kWh/mile

Careful not to extrapolate too much from Texas

 

[jerry33]

Our LEAF is a local car driven by my wife and has a lifetime 5.2 kWh/mile

My wife doesn't do nearly as well as yours with her Leaf

 

[mmd]

This EIA website has interesting data on global motorized transport

I think the take home message is that one should not use napkin math too casually here to extrapolate out the future.

It takes about 16.5 GWh of battery to exactly serve the miles traveled world-wide in 2012. The remainder is "available" for under-utilization.

I didn't read the link, but @Saghost already found mistakes in what you wrote.
But you are conflating electrical energy used per year or whatever time period, with battery pack capacity needed to convert today's new car sales to long range EVs like Model 3. If we sell only 0.5% EVS (500k out of ~100M worldwide vehicle sales), it means the 99.5% cars sold now will pollute for the next many years (20-25 years).
So, the question becomes, how much battery do we need to convert 100% of new car sales so that in future, these vehicles phase out the existing fleet of ICE and hybrids and reduce pollution?

This has no relationship with how many GWh of energy is needed to run those cars. That is a second problem, which surfaces after the first one (creating a 100% pure EV fleet) is solved.

I'm afraid this is a fool's pursuit. I fear, it is just another global gimmick that will produce very little real results, but designed to benefit certain people, politicians and industries.

 

[Topher]

I suggest you consult a dictionary (www.dictionary.com) to understand what the words actual, intended, projected, final etc. mean.

So when YOU quote projections it is gospel, when I do I need a dictionary. Bye. Plonk.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Saghost]

I didn't read the link, but @Saghost already found mistakes in what you wrote.
But you are conflating electrical energy used per year or whatever time period, with battery pack capacity needed to convert today's new car sales to long range EVs like Model 3. If we sell only 0.5% EVS (500k out of ~100M worldwide vehicle sales), it means the 99.5% cars sold now will pollute for the next many years (20-25 years).
So, the question becomes, how much battery do we need to convert 100% of new car sales so that in future, these vehicles phase out the existing fleet of ICE and hybrids and reduce pollution?

This has no relationship with how many GWh of energy is needed to run those cars. That is a second problem, which surfaces after the first one (creating a 100% pure EV fleet) is solved.

I'm afraid this is a fool's pursuit. I fear, it is just another global gimmick that will produce very little real results, but designed to benefit certain people, politicians and industries.

Well, the US buys about 17 million cars per year, which if they all have big (60 kWh+) packs would mean about a trillion Wh per yer to cover them all.

If the Gigafactory is supposed to be getting to 150 GWh per year in a few years, I've read lately? then we'd need about 8 of those for the US alone.

I haven't looked at international car sales, but from his numbers above and the ones I pulled together a while back, it looks like we drive about 1/8th the global miles here.

 

[SageBrush]

Both estimates appear to point towards 150 full-fledged Gigafactories to convert the world transport to eV only. That sounds like 50 years of building at a minimum but more likely 100. In the meantime ICE are running around at around 20 mpg, combusting around 600 gallons of petrol a year, at least in the US. So I think of these approximate numbers:

50 kWh EV: 0 gallons a year
10 kWh PHEV: 50 Gallons a year
HV: 250 Gallons a year
ICE: 500 Gallons a year

Every year that an ICE is on the road waiting for conversion to EV could have been 10 years for a PHEV.
That is a a lot of time gained while awaiting the world-wide GF expansion.

Now, this is ideal and presumes a battery demand that exceeds supply for *EV but I don't know why people dismiss or disagree with this outline.

 

[ggr]

Our LEAF is a local car driven by my wife and has a lifetime 5.2 kWh/mile
My Prius Prime is a work commuter car and has a lifetime 5.2 kWh/mile
I bet the Model 3 EPA will be ~ 4 kWh/mile

Careful not to extrapolate too much from Texas

I think you must have mixed up units somehow above. 5.2 kWh/mile is terrible for a pure BEV. 5.2 miles/kWh is extremely good, but closer to what I would expect.

 

[McRat]

I think you must have mixed up units somehow above. 5.2 kWh/mile is terrible for a pure BEV. 5.2 miles/kWh is extremely good, but closer to what I would expect.

Up to 7 mi/kWh is possible in most EVs.
The Leaf is actually EPA rated at 3.8 mi/kWh combined. 107 mi range / 28 usable kWh. If the usable is higher, the mi/kWh falls.

 

[Topher]

Both estimates appear to point towards 150 full-fledged Gigafactories to convert the world transport to eV only. That sounds like 50 years of building at a minimum but more likely 100.

It does? Why? Even Tesla by itself could make them faster than that. The plan is to start 3-4 in the next year. That's a exponential rate of about 35%, or a doubling every 2 years. That's 14 years until they pass 100 Gigafactories.

Thank you kindly.

 

[SageBrush]

It does? Why? Even Tesla by itself could make them faster than that. The plan is to start 3-4 in the next year. That's a exponential rate of about 35%, or a doubling every 2 years. That's 14 years until they pass 100 Gigafactories.

Man, I would love that to end up being the case.

Tesla call all its big factories "Gigafactories." Car, PV, and battery. So far as I know, Tesla is still a couple years away from one factory outputting 100 - 150 GWh of car battery a year

 

[Skotty]

I don't have anything against plug-in hybrids. Might be a necessary milestone alone the way to reducing fossil fuel use to environmentally manageable levels. However, I think Tesla is right to go full on EV, as that is where the doubters are, and Tesla needs to prove it's viable and desirable to go full EV eventually.

 

[SageBrush]

I think you must have mixed up units somehow above. 5.2 kWh/mile is terrible for a pure BEV. 5.2 miles/kWh is extremely good, but closer to what I would expect.

Good catch! Yes, units reversed

 

[SageBrush]

I don't have anything against plug-in hybrids. Might be a necessary milestone alone the way to reducing fossil fuel use to environmentally manageable levels. However, I think Tesla is right to go full on EV, as that is where the doubters are, and Tesla needs to prove it's viable and desirable to go full EV eventually.

It is just so important to get 25 mpg cars off the roads now, not in 5-100 years.

A Toyota Prius Prime is profitable to Toyota at $27k. That purchase price difference between it and a Model 3 at $35k covers a large swath of developed countries car buying population. Another large fraction buy $20k cars that might be pushed away from 25 mpg cars and into a PHEV with a $3-4k rebate, bundling with PV, and fuel savings.

Europe will be a very interesting place to watch. If the Model 3 is ~ $5 - 10k more to purchase than alternatives considered and can compete on money given the price of fossil fuels then all the world needs is a carbon tax.

 

[Topher]

Tesla call all its big factories "Gigafactories." Car, PV, and battery.

More confusingly, they seem to have changed their usage over time. Future Gigafactories look to be Car & Battery. That was what I was counting anyway (i.e. not GF-002).

So far as I know, Tesla is still a couple years away from one factory outputting 100 - 150 GWh of car battery a year

Factories of that size take a while to build, but unless something happens to stop it, it is starts that are important.

***

Let's look at this in a different light. What exactly is preventing all car companies from starting Gigafactories RIGHT NOW? Only things like will and stockholder tolerance. NOT things like resource limits, availability of technology. There is no reason a properly motivated group couldn't start 150 Gigafactories TODAY. We would have the necessary capacity in 5 years or so. So motivate them. Everybody stopping buying new ICE cars TODAY, would do it. Done.

Thank you kindly.

 

[McRat]

...There is no reason a properly motivated group couldn't start 150 Gigafactories TODAY. We would have the necessary capacity in 5 years or so. So motivate them. Everybody stopping buying new ICE cars TODAY, would do it. Done.

Thank you kindly.

Pretty sure all you have to do is remove civil liberties and raise taxes on the working class more. What's not to like?

What is stopping EV acceptance is auto buyers. There is no magic. All you need to do it tax them into poverty unless they obey the King and Royals. This works, proven by history. Do as we say, or get taxed into indentured servitude.

We could also just draft everybody into the military, or their offspring or extended family members unless they buy EVs. Or perhaps repeal the 13th Amendment and enslave everybody who won't buy an EV.

You could just outlaw all non-ZEV vehicles, but that will get rid of EVs too. Bicycles and sneakers will be our future, because horses emit methane and CO2.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Both estimates appear to point towards 150 full-fledged Gigafactories to convert the world transport to eV only. That sounds like 50 years of building at a minimum but more likely 100. In the meantime ICE are running around at around 20 mpg, combusting around 600 gallons of petrol a year, at least in the US. So I think of these approximate numbers:

50 kWh EV: 0 gallons a year
10 kWh PHEV: 50 Gallons a year
HV: 250 Gallons a year
ICE: 500 Gallons a year

Every year that an ICE is on the road waiting for conversion to EV could have been 10 years for a PHEV.
That is a a lot of time gained while awaiting the world-wide GF expansion.

Now, this is ideal and presumes a battery demand that exceeds supply for *EV but I don't know why people dismiss or disagree with this outline.

This is getting dangerously close to the John Petersen argument, which presumes that the limiting factor is battery capacity in kWh. That neglects to factor in that the materials/cost per kWh is not the same among EVs, PHEVs, HEVs, and start/stop ICE.

Also, if the demand calls for it, many gigafactories can be built in parallel (and not only by Tesla). LG Chem is drastically stepping up their battery investment. Samsung is also doing the same. They might be a couple years behind, but it won't be decades.

 

[SageBrush]

This is getting dangerously close to the John Peterson argument, which presumes that the limiting factor is battery capacity in kWh.

Are you talking about one of the the clowns at the Seeking Alpha website ?

 

[McRat]

If a company can make money by making batteries, they will. Like drilling for oil, it will not take them long to ramp if the rewards are high enough.

If you are not seeing enough battery production today, you will see the prices of EVs climb.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Are you talking about one of the the clowns at the Seeking Alpha website ?

Yes, he uses a similar argument, that the limiting factor is the kWh production capacity. He uses that as a basis to say large capacity EVs make no sense, and that investment should instead be in small kWh start/stop batteries (which personally I think is bunk). I'm seeing signs of the same argument by a few people here.