China Market situation and outlook

[Krugerrand]

Changing staff = problem with the car? If the car is the problem the staffing won't fix it.

If the car is a problem he fired the wrong people. :wink:

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Gee, he didn't think to look into that first?

I ask that of all the people who think a Border Collie (fill in high energy/large dog) is a good choice for an apartment dweller. Some people just aren't good at making decisions applicable to their situation.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Gee, he didn't think to look into that first?

This is something that is often overlooked by the average TMCer in my view, not all people can charge at home every night. Even wealthy people in Asia may live in condos and have parking arrangements that don't allow that. I also understand that interior-wise (as well as long wheelbase wise), Tesla is missing many comforts especially in the back - and in Asia many car owners are chauffeured...

That said, the interior question is a non-issue to me personally. I find the Model S a breath of fresh air after German high-end premiums. Sure, it is lacking massaging seats and ventilation, rear screens and that kind of stuff, but I find the upsides already offset those for me.

 

[maoing]

The worst is over and the negative market reaction is even worse than my pessimistic views which got a lot attacked from irrational TMC fanboys. Here is the reason:
1) All the bad news from China is out, management reshuffle, employee layoff, bad sales result and high inventory. I'm proud that I'm pretty much the first to post such information in TMC China market thread and gave proper interpretation. Nothing could be worse than as of now, even from the most bearish SA articles wrt. China market;
2) Disappointing Q4 sales number has its reason which is mainly due to D model release, the price difference between D and non-D is minor, so scalpers were motivated to get rid of the non-D models orders. With most inventories digested in Q1, order number will be ramping up for rest of the year;
3) JL Warren Capital Feb. sales report is unethical, it could be the last resort of bear attack for China weakness, traditional chinese new year is in Feb., so most of the people take two weeks off and so does business. 45% drop compared to Jan. number is not an indication for declining sales in 2015;
4) Actually March sales should be pretty good with D models hit Chinese market, especially high rating from media and customers for P85D. So the China sales/orders will be picking up from March, around the same time next month, we should hear more positive news from China;

Musk Reboots Tesla's China Strategy - Bloomberg Business

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A lot of fresh P85D/85D threads in autohome Tesla forum, some of them asked for a purchase immediately instead of purchasing discounted non-D inventory. Note the first P85D just delivered last weekend.
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39734415-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39775158-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39778641-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-38999670-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39427976-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39715576-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39738954-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39614578-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39710049-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39562951-1.html

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The worst is over and the negative market reaction is even worse than my pessimistic views which got a lot attacked from irrational TMC fanboys. Here is the reason:
1) All the bad news from China is out, management reshuffle, employee layoff, bad sales result and high inventory. I'm proud that I'm pretty much the first to post such information in TMC China market thread and gave proper interpretation. Nothing could be worse than as of now, even from the most bearish SA articles wrt. China market;
2) Disappointing Q4 sales number has its reason which is mainly due to D model release, the price difference between D and non-D is minor, so scalpers were motivated to get rid of the non-D models orders. With most inventories digested in Q1, order number will be ramping up for rest of the year;
3) JL Warren Capital Feb. sales report is unethical, it could be the last resort of bear attack for China weakness, traditional chinese new year is in Feb., so most of the people take two weeks off and so does business. 45% drop compared to Jan. number is not an indication for declining sales in 2015;
4) Actually March sales should be pretty good with D models hit Chinese market, especially high rating from media and customers for P85D. So the China sales/orders will be picking up from March, around the same time next month, we should hear more positive news from China;

I can appreciate if your posting bearish opinions to try and produce a balanced view of the situation, but you appear to contradict yourself a lot. I am almost positive the media and analysts mentioned in the links you have posted are incorrectly analyzing the situation in China.

People in China can fill up a vehicle at a gas station. Why would filling up a Tesla at a Supercharger be any different? I have yet to see anyone ask this question. If you are traveling long distances in China, you can charge at a number of places along the way. My guess is the weaker than expected deliveries has something to do with Tesla being encouraged to slow the number of deliveries in China, to give the grid time to get adjusted for a high number of Electric Vehicles.

The pictures of unsafe EV charging situations in China are a bit funny, especially when you consider the vast number of gas stations in China that are very dangerous.

100,000 Gas Stations at Risk of Seepage (National) | Beijing Today

 

[maoing]

Elon Musk in China. The CCTV gave several shots when Elon Musk is listening China chairman Xi's speech. In contrast to last year's high profile visit, Elon's visit this year is very low profile. It's a good footnote to restart China strategy, keep good government relationship is always crucial to do business in China. Tesla needs to get support from government in several fronts this year to turn around China market. For example, purchase tax exemption and charging standard compatibility.

 

[AlMc]

The worst is over and the negative market reaction is even worse than my pessimistic views which got a lot attacked from irrational TMC fanboys. Here is the reason:
1) All the bad news from China is out, management reshuffle, employee layoff, bad sales result and high inventory. I'm proud that I'm pretty much the first to post such information in TMC China market thread and gave proper interpretation. Nothing could be worse than as of now, even from the most bearish SA articles wrt. China market;
2) Disappointing Q4 sales number has its reason which is mainly due to D model release, the price difference between D and non-D is minor, so scalpers were motivated to get rid of the non-D models orders. With most inventories digested in Q1, order number will be ramping up for rest of the year;
3) JL Warren Capital Feb. sales report is unethical, it could be the last resort of bear attack for China weakness, traditional chinese new year is in Feb., so most of the people take two weeks off and so does business. 45% drop compared to Jan. number is not an indication for declining sales in 2015;
4) Actually March sales should be pretty good with D models hit Chinese market, especially high rating from media and customers for P85D. So the China sales/orders will be picking up from March, around the same time next month, we should hear more positive news from China;



- - - Updated - - -

A lot of fresh P85D/85D threads in autohome Tesla forum, some of them asked for a purchase immediately instead of purchasing discounted non-D inventory. Note the first P85D just delivered last weekend.
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39734415-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39775158-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39778641-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-38999670-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39427976-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39715576-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39738954-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39614578-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39710049-1.html
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-39562951-1.html

Maoing. A couple questions: Do you think the Chinese are more susceptible to the Osborne effect.....EX: lots of cancelled reservations for non Ds when the D came out? Do you have any insight to reservation numbers for the X in China?

 

[maoing]

Sorry. You can have your own judgement, but market did vote which side is right.

I am almost positive the media and analysts mentioned in the links you have posted are incorrectly analyzing the situation in China.

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AI, the Oct. release(D and autopilot) made old model a lot out-dated look, the minor price difference can't judge the big HW feature gap. If you were the scalper who has 100 models in transit, you might do the same thing to cancel the order to avoid big loss down the road.

I used to track model X reservation # closely until Nov., since then it almost stalled due to people lost patience for model X delay again announce in Q3 ER. Personally I think model X will have bigger success than model S because China is the biggest market for porsche cayenne.

Maoing. A couple questions: Do you think the Chinese are more susceptible to the Osborne effect.....EX: lots of cancelled reservations for non Ds when the D came out? Do you have any insight to reservation numbers for the X in China?

 

[ScepticMatt]

Elon Musk in China.

Thanks for your continued information Maoing. I find it hard to get a feeling on Tesla China from the outside, looking through autohome
or Searching Chinese google. I didn't have much success searching Weibo either.

Do you know what else Musk is said to do during his stay in China?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The same analysts and journalists who think there is weak demand for Tesla vehicles in China are the same people who thought Apple would never achieve significant market share in China.

 

[bluenation]

Massive staff reshuffles and internal CEO expressions of disappointment means the SpC + S are not enough to meet the high expectations of the Chinese who are truly experienced with luxury cars. Clearly, the sales were disappointing.

(This is an entirely separate topic from the irrelevant point that TM is selling all that they make.)

@maoing

i'd like to personally thank you for keeping us informed on what's happening in China, as none of us really speak mandarin and most Chinese here appear to be HK'ers, which can paint a misleading picture wrt the mainland. I know you've gotten alot of shyt from certain other posters, ignore their negativity n keep up the great work

 

[JRP3]

This is something that is often overlooked by the average TMCer in my view, not all people can charge at home every night. Even wealthy people in Asia may live in condos and have parking arrangements that don't allow that.

I would think the people in Asia, as well as the rest of the world, would be well aware of their charging situation before they bought a car that requires such.

 

[Auzie]

Elon Musk in China. The CCTV gave several shots when Elon Musk is listening China chairman Xi's speech. In contrast to last year's high profile visit, Elon's visit this year is very low profile. It's a good footnote to restart China strategy, keep good government relationship is always crucial to do business in China. Tesla needs to get support from government in several fronts this year to turn around China market. For example, purchase tax exemption and charging standard compatibility.

View attachment 76310View attachment 76311View attachment 76312

I am really glad that Elon is there himself to see first hand the issues that Tesla needs to deal with.

If keeping good government relationship is crucial to doing business in China, I am curious what does it take to do that, how exactly is that done?

 

[MikeC]

So what happened with his talk today? Is there video or a transcript anywhere?

 

[maoing]

Here is the transcript in chinese. So .......

http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA...&idx=1&sn=ae117490f72c377347599f6f3b70b46f#rd

So what happened with his talk today? Is there video or a transcript anywhere?

 

[jhm]

Tesla boss Elon Musk t give up China market | South China Morning Post
Curious admission that Tesla was misled by speculators wanting to flip cars in China.

 

[Drax7]

@ Maoing, The worst is over because you bought some shares?
I don't buy this type of reasoning.

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The same analysts and journalists who think there is weak demand for Tesla vehicles in China are the same people who thought Apple would never achieve significant market share in China.

Never rely on on china to be your savior, it was clear with apple and thousands before, and it applies to tesla. China is the last market to count on.

 

[jhm]

@ Maoing, The worst is over because you bought some shares?
I don't buy this type of reasoning.

There's no need to be so cynical. The causality easily goes the other way around: Because he has come to believe that the worst is over, he has bought some shares. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[Drax7]

There's no need to be so cynical. The causality easily goes the other way around: Because he has come to believe that the worst is over, he has bought some shares. Nothing wrong with that.

I also want the stock to rally, but to think that ones reasoning is flawless to the point of selecting the bottom
is dangerous. The price action remains horrid, until bullish fundamentals appear to reverse that.
We need assurance of a better than expected qtr to offset prior misses.

 

[sundaymorning]

There's no need to be so cynical. The causality easily goes the other way around: Because he has come to believe that the worst is over, he has bought some shares. Nothing wrong with that.

I don't think too many members here care whether others choose to short, buy puts, or are bearish. I feel that what separates short term traders vs long term holders is that in the short term, the stock is vulnerable to senseless attacks on "demand" issues, which allows bears to constantly pounce on an imaginary FUD. While holders going long, try their best to fight against this "demand" problem with logical analysis. Although there are no fundamental demand issues that we know of, the picture is no longer "the fish is jumping in the boat..", yes we understand things atent what it once was, however, the constant trumpeting on this bit of info. gets a bit irritating, then to turn 180 to speculate 'the heavens are rising' in 24-48 hours is outright laughable. We are not here to pump and dump, that is what separates this forum from people like Kramer. But if that is ones perogarive, good for them, switching sides with the media can be quite profitable, until one gets caught..

I also want the stock to rally, but to think that ones reasoning is flawless to the point of selecting the bottom
is dangerous. The price action remains horrid, until bullish fundamentals appear to reverse that.
We need assurance of a better than expected qtr to offset prior misses.

It's a good price to be bullish.. every $10 drop, buy a bit

 

[maoing]

I'm calling the bottom for China weakness and short term bottom. Isn't that obvious as you see today's price action?
For TSLA bottom, I'm not sure unless demand is rock solid strong.

@ Maoing, The worst is over because you bought some shares?
I don't buy this type of reasoning.