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Actually, I am torn about TM making guidance. On the one hand I want them to make it to quiet some of the FUD from critics. On the other hand it will push the TSLA lower making it a very good time to buy more stock, and with 2017 LEAPS coming out around Q3ER, a great time for LEAPS.
chickensevil
Active Member
My only fear is crashing off the stock price entirely, because I fear if we drop too much people will be more afraid to push the stock higher and it will lose a lot of its growth value and potential. If people switch back to looking at Tesla through a short term lense I think we would permanently lose stock value and those 2017 LEAPS might not grow as much as you hope... Seeing the 100s again would be bad IMO.
I think there is something to the "missing Teslas" report.
I got word that despite how many have been sold, there are not many on the street and not many showing up at the service centers in China. My understanding is that dozens to hundreds are being sold to "fleets", as opposed to individual buyers. It's not clear that these are intended to be taxis or limos since they haven't been registered yet and are being kept in new condition. My suspicion is that they are being picked up by resellers to be scalped at a profit, but I don't know how well that would work with a really big purchase, as opposed to an iPhone. This would probably not be a good thing if sales are falsely inflated, but overall I am not too worried about demand in China.
I got word that despite how many have been sold, there are not many on the street and not many showing up at the service centers in China. My understanding is that dozens to hundreds are being sold to "fleets", as opposed to individual buyers. It's not clear that these are intended to be taxis or limos since they haven't been registered yet and are being kept in new condition. My suspicion is that they are being picked up by resellers to be scalped at a profit, but I don't know how well that would work with a really big purchase, as opposed to an iPhone. This would probably not be a good thing if sales are falsely inflated, but overall I am not too worried about demand in China.
I read somewhere that the owners are not registering them yet because they are waiting for the Model S to get on the list of EV's exempt from the sales tax. Makes some sense, although it must be an agonizing wait.
EDIT: I see now that someone else mentioned this earlier in this topic.
2509 since guidance was 7800. The EU numbers are probably dead on. The US numbers are probably in the ballpark. Worry all you want. Q3 isn't going to be a great quarter no matter what. Maybe that is priced in right now. Maybe it isn't. I am ready to buy more if it goes down after Q3. Then you just have to wait for February because Q4 will be great.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't think a bad Q is priced in, not fully at least. If the Q is even slightly down I think we'll take a hit. Of course I thought the stock would pop after the D event, so what do I know?
I can't recall the US estimates ever being even remotely accurate in the past. It would have been logical for Tesla to concentrate on US deliveries this quarter as the down time of the factory coupled with long shipping times really made it difficult to deliver huge volumes overseas. Having said that, anything is possible.
Every quarter, we go through this hand-wringing and fretting over production and sales numbers. Quarter after quarter tesla slightly beats guidance.
This quarter, retooling the line may have skewed the numbers. Don't bet on that.
Tesla will ill be very near guidance, with one helluva of a story to tell.
This quarter, retooling the line may have skewed the numbers. Don't bet on that.
Tesla will ill be very near guidance, with one helluva of a story to tell.
Krugerrand
Meow
I believe in TM/TSLA long term but 2013 Q3ER delivery/production guidance was exceeded and EM was 'dull' and gave no guidance on the CC and the stock dropped. What will the market do if TM just meets guidance in Q3ER 2014. While TM does have a good reason for just making/missing those guided figures because of the factory retool allowing it to produce many more cars in the future, short term the market may not too friendly with the Q3ER.
I have been wrong before and may be wrong this time.
The Media/Market will always spin Tesla Motors in a negative fashion. The "endowment effect" of multitudes invested in the fossil fuel industry, the utilities, and the automotive industries will drive this fight for years to come. Continual demonstration of Tesla's technologies in the only way to overcome this barrage. The handful of Model S fires...........what can be said. Tesla reveals a dual motor supercar with driver assist............it is spun as a negative?
Tesla Tech is extant. They will deny, deny, deny, yet Pandora's Box is open.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Chickenlittle
Banned
Canada accounted for only 73 in July and August, so I suspect the quarterly total will be closer to 100 instead of 150.
Also, Hong Kong is something we can account for separately.
So I'd put it at ~2372 minus Hong Kong sales.
Hah, no. So who knows. I guess I was just thinking I'm not that worried about Q3. I'm thinking more about Q4 and looking at the margin of lots of P85D orders coming in and the higher production meaning some real EPS could be coming. Q3 is going to look just like Q1 and Q2 with marginal non-GAAP EPS. That being said, you never know when ZEV credits show up. Frankly I want Q3 to be bad so I can buy some nice June options at good prices.
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