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China Market situation and outlook

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Tesla Model S Slams Into Mazda 6
In Nanjing, China, during a Tesla Model S test drive (official or unofficial, we’re not sure), the electric car collided violently with a Mazda 6.Specific details are very sparse, but we do know that all of the occupants in the Model S are okay. There’s no word at this time on the status of those in the Mazda 6, but its damage looks much less severe.
 
With BYD building 34GWh capacity over the next few years it would seem they are well positioned to take the lead in China in EVs. It wouldn't be a level playing field to begin with. Also I would expect Nissan to take the lead in Japan, and the VW, BMW in Germany.
As for who will be the largest globally, my bet is on Tesla but I'm biased.
 
Tesla is still cleaning the inventory in China
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-40066762-1.html

P85 without autopilot can be discounted as much as 180K-220K RMB (30K-35K USD). It almost eats up the entire GM or make it slightly negative.

So in Q1 delivery, there could be ~500 inventory sales with very light margin.

This inventory could have as high of a margin as other newer cars, in spite of heavy discount. If scalpers refused to take delivery of these cars, they forfeited deposit. It could be not only initial ($5,000 ?) deposit, but also the deposit required to cover import tariffs. Do you know what deposits would be forfeited if a scalper is refusing delivery?
 
the forfeited deposit is 50K RMB (8K USD).

This inventory could have as high of a margin as other newer cars, in spite of heavy discount. If scalpers refused to take delivery of these cars, they forfeited deposit. It could be not only initial ($5,000 ?) deposit, but also the deposit required to cover import tariffs. Do you know what deposits would be forfeited if a scalper is refusing delivery?
 
In my local Tesla store, there was virtually new P85+ that a buyer had refused on delivery because he had to get the P85D instead. I asked how much this set the buyer back. The answer was the deposit plus 5% of the purchase price of the abandoned car. So at least in the US, more than just the deposit is forfeited. I'm not sure if any of this applies in China, but it does show that Tesla does not take abandoned sales lightly.
 
In my local Tesla store, there was virtually new P85+ that a buyer had refused on delivery because he had to get the P85D instead. I asked how much this set the buyer back. The answer was the deposit plus 5% of the purchase price of the abandoned car. So at least in the US, more than just the deposit is forfeited. I'm not sure if any of this applies in China, but it does show that Tesla does not take abandoned sales lightly.

That could be a new policy for order abandonment. It is likely introduced after China mass cancellations.
 
In my local Tesla store, there was virtually new P85+ that a buyer had refused on delivery because he had to get the P85D instead. I asked how much this set the buyer back. The answer was the deposit plus 5% of the purchase price of the abandoned car. So at least in the US, more than just the deposit is forfeited. I'm not sure if any of this applies in China, but it does show that Tesla does not take abandoned sales lightly.

That could be a new policy for order abandonment. It is likely introduced after China mass cancellations.

Restocking fees are common practice in business. Amazon dealers do this all the time.
 
In my local Tesla store, there was virtually new P85+ that a buyer had refused on delivery because he had to get the P85D instead. I asked how much this set the buyer back. The answer was the deposit plus 5% of the purchase price of the abandoned car. So at least in the US, more than just the deposit is forfeited. I'm not sure if any of this applies in China, but it does show that Tesla does not take abandoned sales lightly.

Similar situation in Toronto for the user, I believe to be Sundoc. Had a P85 on the lot for delivery, cancelled that and ordered a D. You would have to PM that userid and ask if there was a charge.
 
How important is success in China to Tesla's overall success?

EVs provide a better driving experience, but the kind of cars Model S competes with are for back seat owners. How much does that negate a Tesla drivetrain advantage?

No matter what Tesla tries to do to the rear seats, the limiting factors are the high floor and low roof. Just how comfortable and "impressive" can the rear seats in a Model S be?

How important is timing here? Model X is coming out in half a year or so, and after that is the less premium Model 3. If Model S isn't going to be a huge success in China, what does that mean for Tesla? Can Model X be retrofitted to be suitable for rear seat owners? If not, then Model S is the vehicle that needs to be successful in China.

It would seem that Tesla is paying the price of US-centric design when China is now the biggest market.
 
How important is success in China to Tesla's overall success?

EVs provide a better driving experience, but the kind of cars Model S competes with are for back seat owners. How much does that negate a Tesla drivetrain advantage?

No matter what Tesla tries to do to the rear seats, the limiting factors are the high floor and low roof. Just how comfortable and "impressive" can the rear seats in a Model S be?

How important is timing here? Model X is coming out in half a year or so, and after that is the less premium Model 3. If Model S isn't going to be a huge success in China, what does that mean for Tesla? Can Model X be retrofitted to be suitable for rear seat owners? If not, then Model S is the vehicle that needs to be successful in China.

It would seem that Tesla is paying the price of US-centric design when China is now the biggest market.

My take on very good questions that you pose:

Tesla needs to grow sales at a reasonable level to stay in business. Self imposed rate of growth is 50% yoy.

It is quite difficult to grow at such steep rate with one quite expensive model only and in a single geographical market. Hence expansion of both model offerings and expansion to different markets.

Expansion of model offerings requires innovation and production line adjustments. Geographical expansion requires infrastructure footprint and a lot of learning how to do business in different parts of the world. All of these take a lot of capital and time. Tesla is incredibly lucky to be doing their growth in favourable economic environment when people can afford to buy expensive cars and investors are throwing money in the market. Some stars must have aligned for Tesla to let it grow:love:

If Tesla can keep growing sales at the self imposed rate of 50% or similar yoy then imo it does not really matter how they achieve it and where they sell their cars. More options certainly help to achieve their targets. Initial models must be US centric as without US market there would be no Tesla.

Once Tesla starts selling more affordable model 3, they may have achieved more sustainable business model. Revenue stream on the back of the mass affordable car will take care of the business from that point onward.
 
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My take on very good questions that you pose:

Tesla needs to grow sales at a reasonable level to stay in business. Self imposed rate of growth is 50% yoy.

It is quite difficult to grow at such steep rate with one model only and in a single geographical market. Hence expansion of both model offerings and expansion to different markets.

Expansion of model offerings requires innovation and production line adjustments. Geographical expansion requires infrastructure footprint and a lot of learning how to do business in different parts of the world.

If Tesla can keep growing sales at the self imposed rate of 50% or similar yoy then imo it does not really matter how they achieve it and where they sell their cars. More options certainly help to achieve their targets. Initial models must be US centric as without US market there would be no Tesla.

Yeah, I think the Model S was designed primarily for the U.S. market. It has done pretty well in a number of geographies where it is not particularly suited. Of course, there is no way for Tesla to fully predict how various markets will end up perceiving the Model S and what kind of success they would have with it, which I think has pleasantly surprised Tesla management.

I think the Model X, on the other hand, will have a very different market perception and may do much better in China if Tesla designs the rear cabin properly for that market.
 
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