Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

[beeeerock]

I found this interesting...:

Better power lines would help U.S. supercharge renewable energy, study suggests | Science | AAAS

 

[S'toon]

 

[AudubonB]

Make mine a gelato, please:

New data out of Europe demonstrate the past thirty years have held the warmest summers in 2,000 years. Previously, work had gone back to cover the past 1,400 years; this extends the data further:


Europe's recent summers were the 'warmest in 2,000 years' - BBC News

 

[ggies07]

Damn. Very nice.

 

[tigerade]

The world's future may rest on scientific literacy in America:
Scientific Literacy, Religion and the Fate of the World

 

[JRP3]

The world's future may rest on scientific literacy in America:

Then we're probably screwed...

 

[beeeerock]

The world's future may rest on scientific literacy in America:
Scientific Literacy, Religion and the Fate of the World

Maybe the place to start is with the four word inscription on all the US coins... change 'god' to 'science' and allow a little subliminal advertising to get down to work. Because clearly, trusting him to look after it all hasn't been overly effective thus far.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I found this interesting...:

Better power lines would help U.S. supercharge renewable energy, study suggests | Science | AAAS

At certain moments on certain days Germany gets most of it's electricity from solar. Just a few years ago the "experts" there said the grid would break down when intermittent solar hit 5-10% at any particular moment. They passed 30%, 40%, 50% with no major issues.

Granted, they're Germans so their grid probably had a better starting point than the state of our grid today. The point is these upgrades can be made on the fly as needed, there's no massive expensive overhaul that MUST happen before we can transition.

 

[beeeerock]

The point is these upgrades can be made on the fly as needed, there's no massive expensive overhaul that MUST happen before we can transition.

Absolutely. What I found most interesting was the idea that high voltage DC connections between zones could be a big help in relieving 'sun and wind anxiety' (my term), that nay-sayers use to back their 'solar and wind are impractical' arguments.

I see this as a way to improve the system as/when the need arises, not a prerequisite to construct before contemplating any transitions.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Absolutely. What I found most interesting was the idea that high voltage DC connections between zones could be a big help in relieving 'sun and wind anxiety' (my term), that nay-sayers use to back their 'solar and wind are impractical' arguments.

I see this as a way to improve the system as/when the need arises, not a prerequisite to construct before contemplating any transitions.

Germany is having that conversation now as they try to get their solar juice from the south up to the north in a rational fashion. Plenty of work for their utility companies to do now that they have capitulated to the reality of their sustainable future.

It amazes me that the US media keeps having all these supposedly theoretical conversations about things Germany did right here in reality 2 years ago.

 

[beeeerock]

It amazes me that the US media keeps having all these supposedly theoretical conversations about things Germany did right here in reality 2 years ago.

That's because 99% of those working in the media can't find 'Reality' on the map, let alone name it's Head of State. It's a nice place to live, all in all, but unfortunate that the population is so low. Much more immigration is required.

 

[ggies07]

oh man, this is perfect!

 

[jbcarioca]

I have become convince there is no way to address the fóssil fuel dependendo problem while there are such huge worldwide implícita and explicit subsidies for fóssil fuel use. The cases of Denmark, Netherlands and Germany, among others, give a bit of hope. Still the US, China, India and Brazil are the largest net destroyers of progress. The oddity to me is that among the most highly educated people in each of those countries are very powerful and wealthy people who have no motivation to conserve anything for subseqüent generations. Yet most of those people are regardes in their contries as "conservative".

Even when they have scientific backgrounds they will deny anything that precludes their easy gains. The issue is probably not science denial so much as it is political expediency. In sum, lack of integrity may doom the planet for future human habitation.

I wonder if Elon could be correct about Mars?

 

[rays427]

At certain moments on certain days Germany gets most of it's electricity from solar. Just a few years ago the "experts" there said the grid would break down when intermittent solar hit 5-10% at any particular moment. They passed 30%, 40%, 50% with no major issues.

Granted, they're Germans so their grid probably had a better starting point than the state of our grid today. The point is these upgrades can be made on the fly as needed, there's no massive expensive overhaul that MUST happen before we can transition.

They don't get most of their energy from solar on certain days they get most of their energy from renewables infact most comes from wind. They actually had a high of 78% of their consumption for a few hours on one day. The problem is that the lowest day for wind and solar in 2014 (latest date I could find data) was under 4% of the highest. So you need a lot of backup or storage to provide power on the days the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Germany is fazing out their nuclear plants which actually may require them to increase their reliance on coal at least for a time. In Germany and much of the world the wind tends to blow when the sun doesn't shine so they help offset eachother. In California they tend to be in tandem which makes the problem worse.

Right now solar works great. The highest demandand price is in the summer/days when solar has high output. As more folks install solar eventually the the highest demand from the utility company will be in the winter/nights. When that occurs the price for energy in the winter/nights will be much higher. In my case where my monthly solar output varies from 213 Kwh to 1740 Kwh I can see a time where my costs will skyrocket. Right now in the summer PG&E pays me 42.5 cents per Kwh and I charge the car at night at 10 cents per Kwh. Eventually I can see a time when it will be cheaper to charge the car during the day.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Right now in the summer PG&E pays me 42.5 cents per Kwh and I charge the car at night at 10 cents per Kwh. Eventually I can see a time when it will be cheaper to charge the car during the day.

That's a near certainty. German wholesale electricity prices go negative at mid-day on occasion because of solar oversupply, that will eventually trickle down to the retail level and juice will be all but free during the peak hours of the day. I would imagine we'll all soon charge at work during the day rather than overnight.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Dominion Resources CEO Tom Farrell sitting on Mad Money for 10 minutes tonight. Not a peep from anyone about renewables inevitably eroding their entire profit base. Again, something we have already seen happen in the 4th largest economy in the world and no one is even discussing it.

Cramer calls their $4.4B purchase of a Utah natural gas company today a "really smart move". This is NV energy all over again. Do they really think American consumers with internet access are going to allow renewables to be undermined to the point where this kind of purchase shows a profit past 2016?

 

[flankspeed8]

Dominion Resources CEO Tom Farrell sitting on Mad Money for 10 minutes tonight. Not a peep from anyone about renewables inevitably eroding their entire profit base. Again, something we have already seen happen in the 4th largest economy in the world and no one is even discussing it.

Cramer calls their $4.4B purchase of a Utah natural gas company today a "really smart move". This is NV energy all over again. Do they really think American consumers with internet access are going to allow renewables to be undermined to the point where this kind of purchase shows a profit past 2016?

IOU's are not going to go bankrupt from renewable energy. In fact, they will be happy to sell it to you, sometimes for a premium. They are getting into the solar and wind business. My local utility Excel is among the leaders in this. They see the value of going renewable, but realize you can't do it overnight or even over a decade. This is a long term transition which is well under way. The grid and utilities will not be going away anytime soon.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

IOU's are not going to go bankrupt from renewable energy. In fact, they will be happy to sell it to you, sometimes for a premium. They are getting into the solar and wind business. My local utility Excel is among the leaders in this. They see the value of going renewable, but realize you can't do it overnight or even over a decade. This is a long term transition which is well under way. The grid and utilities will not be going away anytime soon.

Ask any legacy utility company in any country where solar has built a significant footprint. Carving off the peak demand from traditional utility providers destroys the entire profit structure of these companies. As the customer base shrinks a bit and they can't count of selling at premium during midday hours, rates must go up to compensate. This naturally leads to even greater defection to solar.

NV Energy will absolutely be unable to turn a profit once cheap solar is allowed to complete in the Nevada and gain a foothold. I haven't seen a solar potential map of Utah, but I would imagine their fate is similar.

 

[flankspeed8]

Ask any legacy utility company in any country where solar has built a significant footprint. Carving off the peak demand from traditional utility providers destroys the entire profit structure of these companies. As the customer base shrinks a bit and they can't count of selling at premium during midday hours, rates must go up to compensate. This naturally leads to even greater defection to solar.

NV Energy will absolutely be unable to turn a profit once cheap solar is allowed to complete in the Nevada and gain a foothold. I haven't seen a solar potential map of Utah, but I would imagine their fate is similar.

You are always going to run into problems with commercial buildings, apartments, condo's and smaller houses that don't have the footprint to go large scale solar. Sure there will be areas where shaping will take place, but the PUC's are not going to let the IOU's suffer too much as they are critical for maintaining the grid and providing power in the dead of night or winter when solar would in no way be able to meet the needs. Read about wk07's challenge to go 100% off grid. When you consider the size of his array, battery storage and location you see the difficulty he still has tells me the vast majority of houses will never disconnect from the grid. Certainly the challenge in northern states is even greater during winter. I drove by the local tiny solar array by the co-op utility in a neighboring town (http://www.dakotaelectric.com/renewable-energy/farmington-solar-array) and it was half covered in snow. This was a week after the last snowfall.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You are always going to run into problems with commercial buildings, apartments, condo's and smaller houses that don't have the footprint to go large scale solar. Sure there will be areas where shaping will take place, but the PUC's are not going to let the IOU's suffer too much as they are critical for maintaining the grid and providing power in the dead of night or winter when solar would in no way be able to meet the needs. Read about wk07's challenge to go 100% off grid. When you consider the size of his array, battery storage and location you see the difficulty he still has tells me the vast majority of houses will never disconnect from the grid. Certainly the challenge in northern states is even greater during winter. I drove by the local tiny solar array by the co-op utility in a neighboring town (http://www.dakotaelectric.com/renewable-energy/farmington-solar-array) and it was half covered in snow. This was a week after the last snowfall.

wk07's legendary apparatus is not necessarily meant to be a universal solution, nor do I think there's any chance of people leaving the grid en masse any time soon. What I'm pointing out is the effect solar has on the wholesale price of electricity in any market where it's share is above something like 2% of total supply. Once you get to that point you're looking at 10-30% of peak and that was where these utils used to make all their money.

If NV Energy could not charge 9 to 14 cents for a wholesale kwh at peak, the company wouldn't be profitable. Solar undercuts all that premium peak revenue and rates MUST rise as costs need to be covered. As rates rise, customers are increasingly incentivized to stay on the grid but go solar. The only thing keeping these operations profitable is actively sabotaging local solar and that can only last maybe another few months to a year as it runs completely counter to the purpose of a utility.

Again, Germany has massive amounts of industrial electricity needs, nearly no proper sun and they've still inadvertently bankrupted their top three utilities by supporting solar back when it wasn't economically viable on it's own.