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Hopefully Trevor is not right, but he usually is! I’m hoping for less antigenic drift in the endemic state.

TLDR: expects 40k-100k deaths a year (similar to influenza) on an ongoing basis in the US. Some of us vaccinated here will presumably die of COVID eventually in future years (though it will be uncommon) if things transpire that way.

 
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  • Informative
Reactions: Yuri_G and madodel
Isn't it true if EVERY single person was vaccinated in this country deaths and illnesses would go dramatically down?
Isn't it true that if EVERY single person was vaccinated in this country we would save hundreds of millions of dollars in health care costs?
Isn't it true that if EVERY single person was vaccinated in this country our hospitals would not be denying elective surgeries.
Isn't it true that unvaccinated people are in fact currently causing the fully vaccinated to get COVID?
Isn't it true that unvaccinated people are increasing the odds of mutations? Which could cause a potentially serious variation?
Isn't it true that there are NO known scientific/medical reasons for ANYONE to not take the vaccine save and except a severe allergic reaction to the initial shot?
Isn't it true that any risks of the vaccine is far outweighed by the benefits - personally and for society?
Isn't it true that over 4-5 Million deaths were caused as a result of the virus that originated in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China? The truth.
 
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Isn't it true that over 4-5 Million deaths were caused as a result of the virus that originated in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China? The truth.
Well that is a non sequitur. Completely ignores my questions. But let's run with it. How many deaths would there be if everyone was vaccinated? Because when you want to talk about "causation" at some point your "cause" will become too remote to be a legal cause. I would argue today - for anyone in the united States the legal cause of death from COVID is most likely going to be their failure to get vaccinated. You have a duty to mitigate damages. If someone throws a ball through your window you cannot simply stand by and watch the rain come in and ruin all your furniture. You have a DUTY to stop the damage. Today you can easily, in the United States, stop the damage of COVID by simply getting a free vaccination.
 
U.S. FDA staff says Moderna did not meet all criteria for COVID-19 boosters

"Scientists at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Tuesday that Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) had not met all of the agency's criteria to support use of booster doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, possibly because the efficacy of the shot's first two doses has remained strong.
FDA staff said in documents that data for Moderna's vaccine showed that a booster does increase protective antibodies, but the difference in antibody levels before and after the shot was not wide enough, particularly in those whose levels had remained high."
 
Merck Asks FDA to Approve First COVID-19 Antiviral Pill

Experts say authorization of molnupiravir, at this time only for use in high-risk Americans, could be a major advance in the struggle against COVID-19 because a convenient, more affordable treatment could reach many more high-risk patients than the more complicated monoclonal antibody treatments now used, according to The New York Times.​
 
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Reactions: JRP3
U.S. FDA staff says Moderna did not meet all criteria for COVID-19 boosters

"Scientists at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Tuesday that Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) had not met all of the agency's criteria to support use of booster doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, possibly because the efficacy of the shot's first two doses has remained strong.
FDA staff said in documents that data for Moderna's vaccine showed that a booster does increase protective antibodies, but the difference in antibody levels before and after the shot was not wide enough, particularly in those whose levels had remained high."
This seems short sighted, and hopefully they will recommend boosters for over 65, as for the other vaccine. Lots of meetings coming up over the next week. NIH data on mix-and-match vaccines coming too.
 
Article
A study of COVID vaccine boosters suggests Moderna or Pfizer works best
on a small study by the NIH
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.10.21264827v1.full.pdf

"If you got the Johnson & Johnson vaccine as your first COVID-19 shot, a booster dose of either the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine apparently could produce a stronger immune response than a second dose of J&J's vaccine. That's the finding of a highly anticipated study released Wednesday.

And if you started out with either Pfizer or Moderna, it probably doesn't matter that much, the research suggests, as long as you get one of the two mRNA vaccines as a booster."
 
COVID-19 continues to be a leading cause of death in the U.S. in September 2021 - Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

"This brief revisits where deaths from COVID-19 rank among leading causes of death in the U.S.
We find that COVID-19 was the second leading cause of death in September 2021.
We also find in September COVID-19 was the number 1 cause of death for people age 35-54 and among the top 7 leading causes of death for people in other age groups.
We also estimate how many COVID-19 deaths were among unvaccinated adults and could have been prevented since June 2021 when safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines became widely available to all adults in the U.S.
From June through September 2021, approximately 90,000 COVID-19 deaths among adults likely would have been prevented with vaccination."
 
COVID-19 may have caused the extinction of influenza lineage B/Yamagata which has not been seen from April 2020 to August 2021

 
Nature article on immunity from having had COVID. According to this research having had it gives you better immunity than the vaccine.

COVID super-immunity: one of the pandemic’s great puzzles

However it doesn't address the downsides of having had COVID. Even among those who don't have bad cases, long COVID is proving to be more and more common.

My partner started a course of low dose naltrexone for long COVID. It's shown to help with the symptoms, but nobody knows if this will be required for the rest of her life or just for a while. She's only two weeks into titrating up the dose (1/2 mg increase a week) and she's feeling like she has more energy than she has in a year and a half.
 
Nature article on immunity from having had COVID. According to this research having had it gives you better immunity than the vaccine.

COVID super-immunity: one of the pandemic’s great puzzles

However it doesn't address the downsides of having had COVID. Even among those who don't have bad cases, long COVID is proving to be more and more common.

My partner started a course of low dose naltrexone for long COVID. It's shown to help with the symptoms, but nobody knows if this will be required for the rest of her life or just for a while. She's only two weeks into titrating up the dose (1/2 mg increase a week) and she's feeling like she has more energy than she has in a year and a half.

From what I can see they only compare hybrid immunity (infected then vaxed) to a full course of vaccination !?

Not infection alone !?
 
This part was interesting regarding longer intervals between doses:

Extending the interval between vaccine doses could also mimic aspects of hybrid immunity. In 2021, amid scarce vaccine supplies and a surge in cases, officials in the Canadian province of Quebec recommended a 16-week interval between first and second doses (since reduced to 8 weeks).

A team co-led by Andrés Finzi, a virologist at the University of Montreal, Canada, found that people who received this regimen had SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels similar to those in people with hybrid immunity10. These antibodies could neutralize a swathe of SARS-CoV-2 variants — as well as the virus behind the 2002–04 SARS epidemic. “We are able to bring naive people to almost the same level as previously infected and vaccinated, which is our gold standard,” says Finzi.
 
From what I can see they only compare hybrid immunity (infected then vaxed) to a full course of vaccination !?

Not infection alone !?

They are saying Memory B cells from infection are "better" than from vaccination.

The team isolated hundreds of memory B cells — each making a unique antibody — from people at various time points after infection and vaccination. Natural infection triggered antibodies that continued to grow in potency and their breadth against variants for a year after infection, whereas most of those elicited by vaccination seemed to stop changing in the weeks after a second dose. Memory B cells that evolved after infection were also more likely than those from vaccination to make antibodies that block immune-evading variants such as Beta and Delta.
 
An article
Immune Responses From 3 Different COVID-19 Vaccines Compared Over 8 Months

on this paper
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2115596

"In a paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine, a team of experts at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) compared immune responses induced by the three vaccines over an eight-month follow-up period. The investigators evaluated the 61 participants’ levels of various antibodies, T cells, and other immune products at two to four weeks following complete immunization – the time of peak immunity – to eight months after vaccination.
...
“The mRNA vaccines were characterized by high peak antibody responses that declined sharply by month six and declined further by month eight,”
...
“The single-shot Ad26 vaccine induced lower initial antibody responses, but these responses were generally stable over time with minimal to no evidence of decline.”
The team also found that mRNA-1273 elicited antibody responses which were generally higher and more durable than BNT162b2. All three vaccines demonstrated broad cross-reactivity to variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The findings have important implications for understanding how vaccine immunity may wane over time; however, the precise immune responses necessary to confer protection against SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been determined, the researchers point out."