Update about daily infections trends.
Italy has I believe peaked:
Code:# "Italy" daily new infections log: Feb 25: 97 new cases, 322 total cases (+30.0%) Feb 26: 131 new cases, 453 total cases (+28.8%) Feb 27: 208 new cases, 661 total cases (+31.4%) # Feb 28: 246 new cases, 907 total cases (+27.0%) # Feb 29: 247 new cases, 1154 total cases (+21.3%) # Mar 01: 573 new cases, 1727 total cases (+33.1%) ### Mar 02: 355 new cases, 2082 total cases (+17.0%) ## Mar 03: 495 new cases, 2577 total cases (+19.2%) ## Mar 04: 605 new cases, 3182 total cases (+19.0%) ### Mar 05: 784 new cases, 3966 total cases (+19.7%) #### Mar 06: 821 new cases, 4787 total cases (+17.1%) #### Mar 07: 1249 new cases, 6036 total cases (+20.6%) ####### Mar 08: 1499 new cases, 7535 total cases (+19.8%) ######## Mar 09: 1797 new cases, 9332 total cases (+19.2%) ########## Mar 10: 977 new cases, 10309 total cases ( +9.4%) ##### Mar 11: 2313 new cases, 12622 total cases (+18.3%) ############# Mar 12: 2651 new cases, 15273 total cases (+17.3%) ############### Mar 13: 2547 new cases, 17820 total cases (+14.2%) ############### Mar 14: 3497 new cases, 21317 total cases (+16.4%) #################### Mar 15: 3590 new cases, 24907 total cases (+14.4%) ##################### Mar 16: 3233 new cases, 28140 total cases (+11.4%) ###################
Percentages have dropped from 20% to 11% yesterday, and the absolute count has first maxed out and then started dropping. I don't think it's a testing bottleneck or saturation of the infrastructure. With tests taking ~2 days to finish this means the containment efforts enacted a few days ago likely generated the peak.
From here on I'd still expect 20,000 more patients, topping out at around 40,000-50,000, so this is going to be a grueling fight - but containment efforts are showing teeth.
South Korea needed another 7 days to drop to around 1% new infections rate, but this might take longer in Italy, due to the apparently less intense tracing efforts (which exposes more people to secondary infections). OTOH South Korea didn't enact a full lock-down, so maybe Italy will improve rapidly too.
My neck of woods appears to be peaking too, although it's still too early to call: Austria and Switzerland. They too now have good containment measures in place.
Germany and France might be peaking, but too early to call and they are on a ~7-day delay to Italy (but acted faster):
But I wouldn't call a top in Germany based on a single day's reading, especially after a weekend which is usually not consistently reported.Code:# "Germany" daily new infections log: Mar 01: 51 new cases, 129 total cases (+39.2%) Mar 02: 35 new cases, 164 total cases (+21.2%) Mar 03: 38 new cases, 202 total cases (+18.7%) Mar 04: 59 new cases, 261 total cases (+22.5%) Mar 05: 138 new cases, 399 total cases (+34.5%) ## Mar 06: 239 new cases, 638 total cases (+37.4%) ### Mar 07: 161 new cases, 799 total cases (+20.1%) ## Mar 08: 240 new cases, 1039 total cases (+23.0%) ### Mar 09: 184 new cases, 1223 total cases (+15.0%) ## Mar 10: 340 new cases, 1563 total cases (+21.7%) ##### Mar 11: 401 new cases, 1964 total cases (+20.4%) ###### Mar 12: 779 new cases, 2743 total cases (+28.3%) ########### Mar 13: 930 new cases, 3673 total cases (+25.3%) ############# Mar 14: 506 new cases, 4179 total cases (+12.1%) ####### Mar 15: 1632 new cases, 5811 total cases (+28.0%) ######################## Mar 16: 1459 new cases, 7270 total cases (+20.0%) #####################
I'm cautiously optimistic about Scandinavia as well: Sweden has clearly peaked, Norway is a bit noisy but might be on the path, and Finland as well.
Here's the data for Sweden:
Code:# "Sweden" daily new infections log: Mar 01: 1 new cases, 14 total cases ( +6.6%) Mar 02: 1 new cases, 15 total cases ( +6.2%) Mar 03: 15 new cases, 30 total cases (+48.3%) # Mar 04: 22 new cases, 52 total cases (+41.5%) ## Mar 05: 38 new cases, 90 total cases (+41.7%) #### Mar 06: 47 new cases, 137 total cases (+34.0%) ##### Mar 07: 24 new cases, 161 total cases (+14.8%) ## Mar 08: 42 new cases, 203 total cases (+20.5%) ##### Mar 09: 90 new cases, 293 total cases (+30.6%) ########## Mar 10: 78 new cases, 371 total cases (+20.9%) ######### Mar 11: 174 new cases, 545 total cases (+31.8%) #################### Mar 12: 187 new cases, 732 total cases (+25.5%) ###################### Mar 13: 127 new cases, 859 total cases (+14.7%) ############### Mar 14: 147 new cases, 1006 total cases (+14.5%) ################# Mar 15: 71 new cases, 1077 total cases ( +6.5%) ######## Mar 16: 89 new cases, 1166 total cases ( +7.6%) ##########
As you can see the drop from 20-30% early exponential daily growth to below 10% daily growth now appears sustained. Numbers are below the absolute peak as well.
The Netherlands is still a cluster-sugar still on the early exponential growth path, as @Right_Said_Fred and other TMC members might be able to confirm.
Code:# "Netherlands" daily new infections log: Mar 01: 3 new cases, 9 total cases (+30.0%) Mar 02: 8 new cases, 17 total cases (+44.4%) Mar 03: 6 new cases, 23 total cases (+25.0%) Mar 04: 15 new cases, 38 total cases (+38.4%) # Mar 05: 44 new cases, 82 total cases (+53.0%) ### Mar 06: 46 new cases, 128 total cases (+35.6%) #### Mar 07: 60 new cases, 188 total cases (+31.7%) ##### Mar 08: 77 new cases, 265 total cases (+28.9%) ###### Mar 09: 56 new cases, 321 total cases (+17.3%) ##### Mar 10: 63 new cases, 384 total cases (+16.3%) ##### Mar 11: 121 new cases, 505 total cases (+23.9%) ########## Mar 12: 111 new cases, 616 total cases (+17.9%) ########## Mar 13: 190 new cases, 806 total cases (+23.5%) ################# Mar 14: 155 new cases, 961 total cases (+16.1%) ############## Mar 15: 176 new cases, 1137 total cases (+15.4%) ############### Mar 16: 278 new cases, 1415 total cases (+19.6%) #########################
Belgium might be in a better shape:
Code:# "Belgium" daily new infections log: Mar 01: 1 new cases, 1 total cases (+50.0%) Mar 02: 6 new cases, 7 total cases (+75.0%) Mar 03: 5 new cases, 12 total cases (+38.4%) Mar 04: 10 new cases, 22 total cases (+43.4%) # Mar 05: 27 new cases, 49 total cases (+54.0%) #### Mar 06: 59 new cases, 108 total cases (+54.1%) ######## Mar 07: 60 new cases, 168 total cases (+35.5%) ######## Mar 08: 31 new cases, 199 total cases (+15.5%) #### Mar 09: 39 new cases, 238 total cases (+16.3%) ##### Mar 10: 28 new cases, 266 total cases (+10.4%) #### Mar 11: 47 new cases, 313 total cases (+14.9%) ####### Mar 12: 85 new cases, 398 total cases (+21.3%) ############ Mar 13: 160 new cases, 558 total cases (+28.6%) ####################### Mar 14: 130 new cases, 688 total cases (+18.8%) ################### Mar 15: 197 new cases, 885 total cases (+22.2%) ############################# Mar 16: 172 new cases, 1057 total cases (+16.2%) #########################
But the same single-day and after-weekend caveat applies. We'll be able to tell more tonight and tomorrow morning.
Spain is in a bad shape still:
Does any TMC member based in Spain have intel from the ground, how bad is the patient severity situation, and how good are the containment measures?Code:# "Spain" daily new infections log: Mar 01: 26 new cases, 72 total cases (+35.6%) Mar 02: 36 new cases, 108 total cases (+33.0%) Mar 03: 31 new cases, 139 total cases (+22.1%) Mar 04: 52 new cases, 191 total cases (+27.0%) Mar 05: 46 new cases, 237 total cases (+19.3%) Mar 06: 154 new cases, 391 total cases (+39.2%) # Mar 07: 115 new cases, 506 total cases (+22.6%) # Mar 08: 157 new cases, 663 total cases (+23.6%) # Mar 09: 558 new cases, 1221 total cases (+45.6%) ###### Mar 10: 464 new cases, 1685 total cases (+27.5%) ##### Mar 11: 583 new cases, 2268 total cases (+25.6%) ###### Mar 12: 869 new cases, 3137 total cases (+27.6%) ########## Mar 13: 2086 new cases, 5223 total cases (+39.9%) ######################### Mar 14: 1159 new cases, 6382 total cases (+18.1%) ############# Mar 15: 1452 new cases, 7834 total cases (+18.5%) ################# Mar 16: 2098 new cases, 9932 total cases (+21.1%) #########################
The UK does appear to have peaked, which is a bit curious given the conflicting messages from health authorities:
Code:# "United.Kingdom" daily new infections log: Mar 01: 13 new cases, 33 total cases (+38.2%) # Mar 02: 4 new cases, 37 total cases (+10.5%) Mar 03: 10 new cases, 47 total cases (+20.8%) Mar 04: 34 new cases, 81 total cases (+41.4%) ## Mar 05: 29 new cases, 110 total cases (+26.1%) ## Mar 06: 48 new cases, 158 total cases (+30.1%) #### Mar 07: 42 new cases, 200 total cases (+20.8%) ### Mar 08: 69 new cases, 269 total cases (+25.5%) ##### Mar 09: 41 new cases, 310 total cases (+13.1%) ### Mar 10: 64 new cases, 374 total cases (+17.0%) ##### Mar 11: 74 new cases, 448 total cases (+16.4%) ###### Mar 12: 134 new cases, 582 total cases (+22.9%) ########### Mar 13: 208 new cases, 790 total cases (+26.2%) ################# Mar 14: 342 new cases, 1132 total cases (+30.1%) ############################# Mar 15: 232 new cases, 1364 total cases (+16.9%) ################### Mar 16: 171 new cases, 1535 total cases (+11.1%) ##############
UK based TMC members might be able to offer a more accurate read on the situation, is this real, or are they not testing/tracing well enough?
So to sum up Europe: Spain and the Netherlands are the two concerning countries right now - which is bad but a vast improvement over the weekend when most countries were on the exponential growth path.
Internationally, South Korea and China are in robust recoveries, with low to very low rates of daily infections.
I'm pretty sure the U.S. numbers are nowhere near accurate:
Code:# "United.States" daily new infections log: Mar 01: 7 new cases, 75 total cases ( +9.2%) Mar 02: 19 new cases, 94 total cases (+20.0%) Mar 03: 15 new cases, 109 total cases (+13.6%) Mar 04: 29 new cases, 138 total cases (+20.8%) Mar 05: 60 new cases, 198 total cases (+30.1%) # Mar 06: 83 new cases, 281 total cases (+29.4%) ## Mar 07: 112 new cases, 393 total cases (+28.4%) ### Mar 08: 139 new cases, 532 total cases (+26.0%) #### Mar 09: 146 new cases, 678 total cases (+21.5%) #### Mar 10: 306 new cases, 984 total cases (+31.0%) ######### Mar 11: 254 new cases, 1238 total cases (+20.5%) ####### Mar 12: 386 new cases, 1624 total cases (+23.7%) ########### Mar 13: 543 new cases, 2167 total cases (+25.0%) ################ Mar 14: 594 new cases, 2761 total cases (+21.5%) ################# Mar 15: 59 new cases, 2820 total cases ( +2.0%) # Mar 16: 434 new cases, 3254 total cases (+13.3%) #############
(Also note the reporting hole on March 15, because the CDC was barred from processing tests over weekends, which is almost criminal negligence IMHO.)
My expectation would be that with the millions of Covid-19 tests now underway, the number of U.S. cases will jump once it reaches hospitals and the results are published.
It's still unclear to me whether the Trump administration will continue to obstruct testing and attempt to hide test results.
In terms of macro impact, I'd expect the U.S. data to have a big effect on sentiment - so even if there's some improvement this week, next week with deteriorating numbers we might see a new bottom or at least a re-test of the bottom. Or not - not advice.
As far as U.S. infections, have you tried predicting using deaths? There was an interesting video approximating infections from deaths.
They approximated:
1% mortality
20 days from infection to death
Infections double every 5 days.
This yields 1600 infections per death.
i.e. 100 infections 20 days prior to lead to a single death, Therefore there would be 200 infections 15 days prior, 400 10 days prior, 800 5 days prior and 1600 current.
Obviously they picked round easy numbers and there are other complexities involved.
