Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Actually for 99% of people it is like cold or flu.

C'mon.
Last I checked colds and flu don't put 14-20% of the 20-44 year old age group in the hospital. (N=705)

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

 

[DanCar]

yeah def voluntary. If you don't want to work then stay home.
But hazard pay? Then wouldn't the same have to apply to every airborne infectious disease? Slippery slope

Amazon kind of implied they are doing that. Amazon ramps hiring, opening 100,000 new roles to support people relying on Amazon’s service in this stressful time Quote:
... and the company would invest over $350 million globally to increase pay for our teams during this crisis.

 

[dqd88]

C'mon.
Last I checked colds and flu don't put 14-20% of the 20-44 year old age group in the hospital. (N=705)

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

View attachment 532456

For many people, esp elderly, flu and cold can have very bad effects. In bad flu seasons the outcome is similar to what we are seeing with Covid.

 

[deonb]

Actually for 99% of people it is like cold or flu.

You must not ever have had pneumonia in your life where you were able to walk 10 miles one day, and 3 days later you can't get up the 6 stairs in a split-level house without having to sit down halfway through.

Oh, and every chest xray for the last 15 years since has some cool looking scars as a reminder.

Even if you survive, pneumonia is not the same thing as a cold or flu.

 

[dqd88]

The Aztec civilization was wiped out by a novel virus! In your analogy we are the Aztecs, not the Spaniards...

That's my point. Let's become Spaniards not Aztecs.
Obviously it depends on the lethality of the pathogen. Corona is not nearly as bad as many others. Look at what our grandparents went through; they all actually got measles, mumps, chickenpox, and probably other stuff.

Here's a list of infectious diseases from most fatal to least:

1. Rabies, untreated
2. HIV, untreated
3. Ebola
4. Tuberculosis
5. Avian flu
6. Bubonic Plague
7. MERS
8. Syphillis
9. C.Difficile
10. Polio
11. MRSA
12. Typhoid
13. Smallpox
14. SARS
15. Diphtheria
16. Dengue Fever
17. E. Coli
18. HIV, treated
19. Campylobacter
20. Cholera
21. Mumps
22. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
23. Salmonella
24. Hepatitis B
25. Scarlet Fever
26. Swine Flu
27. Lyme Disease
28. Seasonal Flu
29. Norovirus
30. Chicken Pox
31. Rhinovirus

The reaction should match the lethality. I feel our reaction is out of tune with the risk of Corona. We went overboard.

 

[deonb]

That's my point. Let's become Spaniards not Aztecs.
Obviously it depends on the lethality of the pathogen. Corona is not nearly as bad as many others. Look at what our grandparents went through; they all actually got measles, mumps, chickenpox, and probably other stuff.

Here's a list of infectious diseases from most fatal to least:

1. Rabies, untreated
2. HIV, untreated
3. Ebola
4. Tuberculosis
5. Avian flu
6. Bubonic Plague
7. MERS
8. Syphillis
9. C.Difficile
10. Polio
11. MRSA
12. Typhoid
13. Smallpox
14. SARS
15. Diphtheria
16. Dengue Fever
17. E. Coli
18. HIV, treated
19. Campylobacter
20. Cholera
21. Mumps
22. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
23. Salmonella
24. Hepatitis B
25. Scarlet Fever
26. Swine Flu
27. Lyme Disease
28. Seasonal Flu
29. Norovirus
30. Chicken Pox
31. Rhinovirus

The reaction should match the lethality. I feel our reaction is out of tune with the risk of Corona. We went overboard.

What are you trying to prove with that list?

Bubonic Plague killed 50 million people.
Ebola killed 11 thousand people.

Ebola is rated more dangerous than Bubonic Plague according to your list.

So if you're trying to prove that a relatively weaker disease that is out of control can be more dangerous than a more lethal but controlled disease, then good job.

 

[dqd88]

You must not ever have had pneumonia in your life where you were able to walk 10 miles one day, and 3 days later you can't get up the 6 stairs in a split-level house without having to sit down halfway through.

Oh, and every chest xray for the last 15 years since has some cool looking scars as a reminder.

Even if you survive, pneumonia is not the same thing as a cold or flu.

I had some very bad cases of flu, probably with pneumonia, and/or bronchitis. And had strep throat, which was the worst experience of all.

So I do very much empathize with anyone who gets Covid. I acknowledge that it is nasty for some people and we should protect those people, but that is a small minority yet we are altering all of society. Think of all the businesses that may go bankrupt.
Also rather than being defensive (shut it down) we should be offensive and science our way out of it. Invent new ways to contain the virus, kill the virus, treat the sick, etc. The obvious example is masks. Literally manufacture billions of N95s... that would be good for economy plus help everyone stay healthy while going about a normal day.

Personally, I'm far more afraid of heart disease or cancer than Covid.

 

[renim]

That's my point. Let's become Spaniards not Aztecs.
Obviously it depends on the lethality of the pathogen. Corona is not nearly as bad as many others. Look at what our grandparents went through; they all actually got measles, mumps, chickenpox, and probably other stuff.

Here's a list of infectious diseases from most fatal to least:

1. Rabies, untreated
2. HIV, untreated
3. Ebola
4. Tuberculosis
5. Avian flu
6. Bubonic Plague
7. MERS
8. Syphillis
9. C.Difficile
10. Polio
11. MRSA
12. Typhoid
13. Smallpox
14. SARS
15. Diphtheria
16. Dengue Fever
17. E. Coli
18. HIV, treated
19. Campylobacter
20. Cholera
21. Mumps
22. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
.......

I'm so dissapointed, as a point of pride a local suburb has a virus named after it and is not on your list, Hendra virus Hendra virus infection

Yeah its another bat virus, makes one very suspicious of eating fruit with any marking (ie backyard mangoes)

 

[Norbert]

C'mon.
Last I checked colds and flu don't put 14-20% of the 20-44 year old age group in the hospital. (N=705)

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

View attachment 532456

That's the naive CFR values, right? And meanwhile outdated, that is, larger now even for the naive values?

 

[Norbert]

Corona is not nearly as bad as many others.

Unless you die from it.

 

[Norbert]

worldometer:

New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source]. We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained

EDIT: This is not the reason for today's new high in daily deaths, but additional.

 

[kbM3]

That has been extensively discussed here: Test, trace, and isolate. Test, test, test. Use stuff we did not have in place the first time around. Use this time to our advantage (unlike the time we did not use to our advantage after the incomplete China travel ban - it's not actually clear to me that that ban bought us any significant time - but we did have time).



Do you have data showing that this alone will bring R0 down to below 1? I'm not convinced at all that it will. I think it will definitely help. But you'd have to have data showing that that alone is sufficient if you wanted to rely on that alone.

With this virus, you can't take any chances. You have to do overkill, and then gradually ratchet things back to figure out what works. We have to learn on the fly without allowing things to get back to the situation we had in early/mid-March.

According to Michael Osterholm, we don’t have sufficient reagents for mass testing. Do you have evidence he’s wrong?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That's the naive CFR values, right? And meanwhile outdated, that is, larger now even for the naive values?

These are "naive" hospitalization ratios from the CDC. I suppose we could naively reduce these numbers by a factor of 10 and say 1.4% to 2% of 20-44 year olds end up hospitalized. Even with that massive reduction, that's brutal.

For many people, esp elderly, flu and cold can have very bad effects.

That's why we have vaccines.

In bad flu seasons the outcome is similar to what we are seeing with Covid.

I had not noticed the health care system on the verge of collapse with prior flu seasons, but maybe I was just not keeping up.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

we don’t have sufficient reagents for mass testing. Do you have evidence he’s wrong?

He's probably right. We had better get busy, quick. We have 3-4 weeks. I don't know the exact amount of testing required, but it's more than we currently have. The epidemiologists & public health authorities will let us know what we need. We should listen.

 

[EVCollies]

Actually for 99% of people it is like cold or flu.

It's sad what we're doing. We're making society weaker. I'm sure you've heard that kids who are exposed to more germs get sick less often as adults. It is being exposed to things that creates a robust human. If we are a society that aims to be isolated that only makes us weak. Weakness kills entire societies. Look at the Aztecs. The Spaniards came and the Aztecs did not have any natural immunity simply because they had not been exposed. So they all get smallpox, etc and die. The Spaniards had already become acclimated to many viruses. You can't hide from every risky thing. Every day we make risk / benefit decisions.

It has gotten so rediculous that hospitals across the country are cutting salaries and furloughing staff. Ironically, they need people to be sick in order to have a viable business. Some doctors are waking up to the sheer absurdity of the situation.

As a healthcare provider working everyday seeing patients, placing myself and my family at risk, without hazard pay, even when informed that my pay will be cut, I know that social distancing will save lives. Even the lives of those that refuse to understand the benefit of flattening the curve to decrease medical scarcity.

If you laughed at the videos of shopper fighting over the last package of toilet paper, imagine the fight waged over limited healthcare availability.

 

[dqd88]

What are you trying to prove with that list?

Bubonic Plague killed 50 million people.
Ebola killed 11 thousand people.

Ebola is rated more dangerous than Bubonic Plague according to your list.

So if you're trying to prove that a relatively weaker disease that is out of control can be more dangerous than a more lethal but controlled disease, then good job.

I just thought it was an insightful list.

The corona hardly affects kids. It's the kids we should worry about. Like a virus that kills kids, that's when we should do a lock down, not for a virus that spares kids. The kids are the future. We should be thinking about how to build a strong future, not protect the past (avg age of death from Covid is 80). We should protect the old by sealing off nursing homes. But what we are doing is adding trillions of more debt that our kids will have to deal with. I can only shake my head in shame and disgust when I think about it.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Bookmark this! Great tool to allow you to track the historical shifts in the IHME model. Will be expanded to other models later it sounds like. Remember the IHME model is just a curve fit of a symmetric sigmoid function.* I'd expect that the projections will increase significantly this week as the lagging death numbers continue to come in higher than the current curve fit and it fits a broader sigmoid. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

COVID Projections Tracker

*It doesn't look symmetric AFAIK because the plot is composite of actual data and projected data. However, some of the recent projections show some humpiness in the mean value on the falling side, so maybe they have adjusted their curve fit underpinnings. No idea. Haven't RTFM.

 

[Norbert]

These are "naive" hospitalization ratios from the CDC. I suppose we could naively reduce these numbers by a factor of 10 and say 1.4% to 2% of 20-44 year olds end up hospitalized. Even with that massive reduction, that's brutal.

Why would you reduce the numbers? I'm not as sure about the calculation for the percentage of hospitalizations, but the naive CFR (Case Fatality Rate) in general has doubled since March 15. In other words, the percentages in the "Case-fatalities" column should be larger, possibly by 2x even if remaining with "naive"" values, and much more if adjusting for lag.

 

[dqd88]

These are "naive" hospitalization ratios from the CDC. I suppose we could naively reduce these numbers by a factor of 10 and say 1.4% to 2% of 20-44 year olds end up hospitalized. Even with that massive reduction, that's brutal.



That's why we have vaccines.



I had not noticed the health care system on the verge of collapse with prior flu seasons, but maybe I was just not keeping up.

Per this report, Italy had "excess deaths" due to the flu of 24,981 in 2016/17 season (I know, it shocked me too). So, based on this, it does appear the Covid is a bad flu season. You do not hear about it because the world is numb and acclimated to flu. We are now under the spell of sensationalized media, social media fear porn, and commoditized statistics that track every single case and death in real time. That has created a very skewed view for you and everyone. Fake news to the extreme with zero context.

Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14-2016/17 seasons). - PubMed - NCBI

 

[SMAlset]

For many people, esp elderly, flu and cold can have very bad effects. In bad flu seasons the outcome is similar to what we are seeing with Covid.

And over 65 get pneumonia vaccination shots to stay healthier. General population and in assisted care and in nursing homes it’s required. No such shot for CV19.