Or a less effective vaccine (e.g. Johnson & Johnson) or people who are less easily vaccinated for whatever reason (e.g. immune suppressed).
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Yuri_G
Member
Out of curiosity, did your wife have any side effects from the vaccine?I haven't posted in a long time but I wanted to post an update.
My wife started sneezing last Tue/Wed then got "sick" on Fri. I took her to CVS on Sat morning for a nasal swab test. She received results this evening: POSITIVE. This is our first and only positive result. Both of us had the Pfizer vaccine in March/April. Anyway, so far it has only been a bad "cold". No fever. No chest involvement. Just a headache, muscle aches, and fatigue. She was actually doing much better this morning but noticed that she couldn't taste anything today (other than salt).
My guess is that she got it on the "Girls Night Out" I planned for her birthday last weekend. It was at a local winery. This actually an interesting test case. My wife had Pfizer but never CV19, our daughter had J&J and never CV19, and my wife's friend had CV19 last September (don't know if she also had a vaccine, too). I assume that all of them were exposed to the same source last weekend. We'll see who all ends up getting it. My main concern is our daughter because she had a nasty episode with the swine flu back in 2008/2009. Ended up in the hospital with lower-lobe pneumonia a week after having a bad "cold".
I've been exposed to this bug for about five days and don't have any symptoms. Maybe all those gin-and-tonics I drink daily made a toxic environment for this damn bug
Edit: I'm going to get a test tomorrow morning.
She felt nothing on the first shot. A little sore around the injection location on the second. That's all.
I had the same reaction on both shots: about a quarter-sized area around the spot that felt bruised for a couple of days.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I hope that you remain COVID negative, and your wife recovers quickly and fully. For your test: the tests are super sensitive, so I am not convinced that all positive test results in vaccinated people represent active infections - especially if you live with a currently infected individual and are breathing the same air - you would have to know the actual Ct value corresponding to a positive test result to get an idea of whether the virus was actually in a replicating state.
Not the same as a false positive of course - a positive test result in a vaccinated individual who was exposed but not infected (has sterilizing immunity) represents a true positive!!!
@FoverM - ditto AlanSubie4Life's hope that you and your wife are both well soon.
Just curious how long ago you were vaccinated, if you don't mind my asking?
I'm seeing some articles suggest that the vaccine starts losing effectiveness after 6 months.
I would sign up for a trial if I could get a Delta booster!
Just curious how long ago you were vaccinated, if you don't mind my asking?
I'm seeing some articles suggest that the vaccine starts losing effectiveness after 6 months.
I would sign up for a trial if I could get a Delta booster!
Had the Pfizer vaccine in March+April, so around three months ago.
I get the sense that this waning of blood antibody levels is mostly a concern for older (65+) people right now and may be just emerging as a concern in some studies such as early results out of Israel. FDA doesn’t seem to think boosters are necessary now but are watching and may recommend them to older folks and people with suppressed immune system issues in the months to come. Eventually this may be an issue for younger adults with healthy immune systems but the mRNA vaccines induce such a high antibody load that it will take some time to reduce down to a lower level that is problematic. Or something like that.
That was Saturday. Today the new daily cases are up from 8.4 to 12 per 100k. The new level represent 747% growth from just 14 days ago.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I want to know if more than 20% of cases are in vaccinated people. Above that level, at this moment in time, I would be a bit worried.
This assumes 65% of population fully vaccinated, 85% protection from vaccine or prior infection, and 10% of the population unvaccinated but with natural immunity.
And of course as time goes by we should expect to see that % of cases that are in vaccinated people keep going up, regardless of whether more people get vaccinated.
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Our daughter tested negative for CV19 using the rapid test (antigen?). She had the J&J vaccine back in April and had a pretty strong reaction to it. She felt fine after the shot but was sick when she woke up the next morning. IIRC, the sickness lasted around 12 hrs.
I should get my results by tomorrow morning (PCR test like my wife). I don't have any symptoms.
Funny. As I'm typing this my wife got a call from the health department, following up on her positive test.
I should get my results by tomorrow morning (PCR test like my wife). I don't have any symptoms.
Funny. As I'm typing this my wife got a call from the health department, following up on her positive test.
It seems that you'd need a controlled study to really understand how common (or not) breakthrough infections are. How many vaccinated people are going to go through the trouble of getting Covid tests every time they feel "under the weather"? The vast majority certainly won't bother with tests if they're not experiencing any symptoms.
It is probably not a bad thing, from the standpoint of personal health, for most vaccinated people to experience a mild or asymptomatic Delta infection, as this should result in stronger natural immunity. The negative, of course, is the risk of transmission for a short time. Still, I'm very skeptical that the overall risks are great enough to justify asking vaccinated people to wear masks, maintain physical distance, etc.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This also applies to unvaccinated people with minor symptoms (especially now, since for many unvaccinated people coronavirus is thought to be like a common cold), so to some extent this will balance out.
I think if we had a decent idea of vaccine and natural immunity efficacy (both appear to be about 90%), you can use the % of vaccinated people being diagnosed as a method to roughly back calculate how many people have natural immunity, but remain unvaccinated. Won’t be perfect because of behavior and socioeconomic differences in these groups, though. In any case, the more people who have natural immunity who remain unvaccinated there are, the higher the % of cases there will be which occur in vaccinated individuals. (Since natural immunity provides protection for the unvaccinated cohort.)
It's also getting trickier to precisely tease out the efficacy of the vaccines because a great many vaccinated people also have antibodies from actual Covid infections (prior to vaccination and/or after vaccination). I guess a study could be conducted in which, to begin participating, one would have to test negative for Covid antibodies. Also, we know people who were required to be tested for Covid on a weekly basis, but that requirement no longer applied once they were vaccinated.
In any case, it seems clear that the mRNA vaccines are extremely effective. We are so thankful to now have the choice to live life to the fullest, go to the theater again, etc. I hope and pray that the rest of the world will soon have the opportunity to benefit from these life saving vaccines!
I think that depends upon how vulnerable vaccinated people are to getting “long Covid” problems after experiencing a breakthrough infection. As far as I can tell this is currently not well understood.
This is actually easy to figure out. All of the vaccines used in the U.S. are based only on the spike protein so the immune system can only create spike-based antibodies. Natural infection creates antibodies to spike protein but also to other virus proteins like the nucleocapsid that protects the RNA inside the virus particles (virions).
There are easy antibody tests that can sort out the difference and tell whether you have antibodies that could have only resulted from natural infection.
And now the Alpha (UK) variant has plunged back to around 5% prevalence now that the Delta variant has taken over with 83% prevalence in national genomic sequencing.Well this happened even quicker than I thought it would….
Delta now dominant coronavirus variant in the US, CDC says
Newly updated CDC data shows the so-called delta variant was estimated to account for 51.7% of all new cases of COVID-19 across the country as of July 3.abcnews.go.com
From July 3 to July 30…. That was quick!
Delta variant now makes up 83% of cases, CDC director says, pressed on booster shots
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky told lawmakers Tuesday the delta variant now makes up 83% of cases.
abcnews.go.com
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I feel like we are doing a good job of flattening the curve in the US. Some oscillation is inevitable, but that trend line is looking flatter and flatter. Soon we may be able to extend the averaging interval to include the winter wave and we'll still have a nice flat trend line. We have successfully avoided the zero-COVID end game.And now the Alpha (UK) variant has plunged back to around 5% prevalence now that the Delta variant has taken over with 83% prevalence in national genomic sequencing.
From July 3 to July 30…. That was quick!
Delta variant now makes up 83% of cases, CDC director says, pressed on booster shots
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky told lawmakers Tuesday the delta variant now makes up 83% of cases.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Delta is possibly more transmissible (and here's a potential reason why that might be). More pathogenic? Not sure yet!
Transmissibility is affected by a combination of factors: asymptomatic rate, clearance rate, how sick (and how quickly) the patient gets, viral load, how quickly viral load builds and how long it lasts, societal factors, etc.
So just because there is a mechanism for greatly increased transmissibility doesn't necessarily translate into a more transmissible disease, though it seems likely of course...but we don't know the actual R0 for the US population with the current vaccination distribution. Cities are more heavily vaccinated so it will appear that R0 is lower there, even though that's not actually R0, it's more like Rt. But fundamentally R0 is affected by societal factors; it's not the same for every population even if the virus is identical.
Transmissibility is affected by a combination of factors: asymptomatic rate, clearance rate, how sick (and how quickly) the patient gets, viral load, how quickly viral load builds and how long it lasts, societal factors, etc.
So just because there is a mechanism for greatly increased transmissibility doesn't necessarily translate into a more transmissible disease, though it seems likely of course...but we don't know the actual R0 for the US population with the current vaccination distribution. Cities are more heavily vaccinated so it will appear that R0 is lower there, even though that's not actually R0, it's more like Rt. But fundamentally R0 is affected by societal factors; it's not the same for every population even if the virus is identical.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Fortunately, relatively few people received the J&J shot. If this study result holds up, the FDA may have to relent and officially authorize a 2nd J&J shot or a booster mRNA vaccine shot.
www.nytimes.com
J.&J. Vaccine May Be Less Effective Against Delta, Study Suggests
Many who received the shot may need to consider boosters, the authors said. But federal health officials do not recommend second doses.
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