Coronavirus

[wdolson]

I am not sure that it is clear that to the "uninitiated" Omicron is far less deadly. While with other viruses for which we have an historical record, as you describe well, this is often the case, that doesn't mean it is going to be that way this time.

We are dealing with a different population now on the whole. Many people have been vaccinated, have had Covid at least once, or both. And 1 million of the most susceptible Americans are gone. And we have treatments.

I think it remains to be seen whether for the uninitiated, previously unexposed, demographic Omicron is less lethal.

Covid-19: is omicron less lethal than delta?

Death certification data support an intrinsically lower case fatality rate for omicron Soon after the omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern was first reported to the World Health Organization on 24 November 2021, preliminary observational studies in South Africa suggested this highly...

www.bmj.com

Omicron is also centered much more in the upper respiratory track and the original variants were lower respiratory and sometimes digestive. Infections of the lungs are normally much more lethal than infections that stay in the head and throat. People don't die from head colds, but they can die if they develop a secondary infection of pneumonia. My partner has almost died a couple of times from pneumonia that started as a cold.

 

[DrGriz]

Omicron is also centered much more in the upper respiratory track and the original variants were lower respiratory and sometimes digestive. Infections of the lungs are normally much more lethal than infections that stay in the head and throat. People don't die from head colds, but they can die if they develop a secondary infection of pneumonia. My partner has almost died a couple of times from pneumonia that started as a cold.

Well, that was true for the first Omicron variants, but BA4 and BA5 seem to have evolved to target lung tissue.

Virological characteristics of the novel SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants including BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5

After the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 lineage, some BA.2-related variants that acquire mutations in the L452 residue of spike protein, such as BA.2.9.1 and BA.2.13 (L452M), BA.2.12.1 (L452Q), and BA.2.11, BA.4 and BA.5 (L452R), emerged in multiple countries. Our statistical analysis...

www.biorxiv.org

Cell culture experiments showed that BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/5 replicate more efficiently in human alveolar epithelial cells than BA.2, and particularly, BA.4/5 is more fusogenic than BA.2.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867422011904#!

Highlights​

•
BA.4/5 is resistant to immunity induced by BA.1 and BA.2 infections
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Substitutions in the BA.4/5 spike contribute to immune escape and ACE2 binding strength
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BA.4/5 is more fusogenic and more efficiently spread in human lung cells than BA.2
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BA.4/5 spike-bearing virus is more pathogenic than BA.2 spike-bearing virus

 

[madodel]

Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

Some countries have started to rebound from COVID affects on life expectancy.

Interesting to see how many European countries bounced back after 2020, but several continued to see loss of life expectancy. In the US only the age group 80+ bounced back in 2021 probably thanks to significant vaccinations of that group and the initial brutal die-off of elderly people with co-morbidity early on.

 

[DrGriz]

Just another reminder that Covid has not shown the usual progression from deadlier to milder disease. Delta was 235% more likely to result in ICU admission and 133% more likely to result in death than the original strain. This resulted in discussion that the virus may have been weaponized. Don't think that this is still the thought, but just pointing out that this virus isn't your average bear.

Delta has 235% higher risk of ICU admission than original coronavirus

A new study examines several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including Delta, and finds that they all lead to more severe disease.

www.medicalnewstoday.com

We may see a shift again as the virus mutates toward more immune escape in the coming months.

 

[scottf200]

That is quite an expanding mixture. Note that it does not include the recombinant lineage XBB yet.

 

[JRP3]

Interesting that even the northeast is now showing a drop in waste water values

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That is quite an expanding mixture. Note that it does not include the recombinant lineage XBB yet.

That is quite an expanding mixture. Note that it does not include the recombinant lineage XBB yet.

Seems like what you might expect, with everything struggling to get any purchase.

 

[scottf200]

Seems like what you might expect, with everything struggling to get any purchase.

I don't follow the "Purchase" wording?
... tap tap tap ... nevermind I found the denotation I wasn't versed in.
noun
1. the action of buying something. ie. "the large number of videos currently available for purchase"
2. a hold or position on something for applying power advantageously, or the advantage gained by such application.
"the horse's hooves fought for purchase on the slippery pavement"

 

[cwerdna]

Pfizer expects to hike U.S. COVID vaccine price to $110-$130 per dose

Pfizer Inc expects to roughly quadruple the price of its COVID-19 vaccine to about $110 to $130 per dose after the United States government's current purchase program expires, Pfizer executive Angela Lukin said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

 

[DrGriz]

Pfizer expects to hike U.S. COVID vaccine price to $110-$130 per dose

Pfizer Inc expects to roughly quadruple the price of its COVID-19 vaccine to about $110 to $130 per dose after the United States government's current purchase program expires, Pfizer executive Angela Lukin said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Uptake rates being what they are, I'm not sure they're going to sell many doses to people without insurance coverage.

 

[Slipstream]

 

[madodel]

From an article on thelocal.de about the increase in COVID rates in Germany. I thought this part was interesting about Bavaria which just had their first Octoberfest in 2 years at the end of September and seem to be paying for it now.

EXPLAINED: Where Covid infections are rising rapidly in Germany
Covid numbers throughout Germany are rising, with the states of Saarland, Bavaria and some regions of Hesse seeing particularly high numbers of infections. We look at recent stats, and explore what they mean.

Bavaria​

​

The Covid autumn wave is resulting in 7-day incidences of over 1,000 infections per 100,000 people in more and more Bavarian cities and counties, and is putting a strain on hospitals. On Friday morning, the RKI reported official figures above 1,000 for nine counties and the state capital Munich.​

​

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Guests celebrate in the Schützenzelt at the start of the 187th Munich Oktoberfest. Covid infections rose significantly in Munich since the start of the event. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Felix Hörhager​

​

On Monday, the 7-day incidence for the whole of Bavaria stood at 810.5 infections per 100,000 people – an increase of almost 25 percent within one week and the second-highest figure of all German states.​

​

READ ALSO: Munich sees sharp rise in Covid cases after Oktoberfest​

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The increasing infection numbers are being felt in hospitals in Bavaria too. On Friday, the city of Munich reported an occupancy of 552 patients with Covid in regular, intensive care and transitional care units – a 47 percent increase from the previous week.​

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And this article that doesn't require a subscription on calls for masking indoors again in Germany:

German health minister urges states to bring back mask-wearing indoors ​

Germany’s Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SDP) has urged states to reintroduce mask requirements for indoor spaces due to high Covid-19 infection numbers, while launching his Ministry's new Covid campaign on Friday.​

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Paper of the day:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584661254979063809

A few comments (and of course this is just antibodies and not t-cells so even if you get infected you’ll probably be better off but who knows):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584672416831197184

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584712028047822850

Anyway hopefully they check the booster of the booster soon, as mentioned in this thread a few times already. May or may not be needed but need to study it now!

I’m already in line for my sixth vaccine. They are awesome.

 

[DrGriz]

Paper of the day:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584661254979063809

A few comments (and of course this is just antibodies and not t-cells so even if you get infected you’ll probably be better off but who knows):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584672416831197184

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584712028047822850

Anyway hopefully they check the booster of the booster soon, as mentioned in this thread a few times already. May or may not be needed but need to study it now!

I’m already in line for my sixth vaccine. They are awesome.

The point about real world effects/T Cells vs. antibody levels is a good one. We have yet to see about that, I think. Personally, I don't expect a magic bullet that will give us broad immunity, at least as long as we are targeting spike proteins. Maybe the research looking at other, more stable, antigens will bear that fruit.

 

[JRP3]

I’m already in line for my sixth vaccine. They are awesome.

Let's be real, they kind of suck and are no where near as effective as originally hoped.

 

[DrGriz]

Let's be real, they kind of suck and are no where near as effective as originally hoped.

They've been excellent for preventing hospitalizations and deaths, which was always the goal. My 80 year old, frail stepmom had it last week and got through it in 5 days. Didn't need anything, wasn't even seen, and is just fine this week.

I'll take that.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Let's be real, they kind of suck and are no where near as effective as originally hoped.

It seems there's some rewriting of history on this. They worked pretty darn well at preventing infection until Omicron.

 

[JRP3]

Who here expected 2 shots a year 2 years ago?

 

[DrGriz]

Who here expected 2 shots a year 2 years ago?

Always knew and told anyone who asked that this virus is an RNA virus and RNA viruses break and reassemble.

It's what they do.

It's why we have no good vaccine for the common cold (rhinovirus) and many other RNA viruses.

I actually think that the vaccines so far have been wildly successful and as bad as the death counts have been I expected worse. That still may come, but for now we are learning. This is a novel virus to humans, so we don't know what will happen.

 

[madodel]

Got my Bivalent Moderna today. Almost no line. At least here it looks like most people aren't bothering yet. I was going to write "anymore" but my guess is in a few weeks to a couple month what is starting now in Germany will be here and once more people will panic and again begin to overwhelm resources.