Could Model 3 be too late?

[smac]

Following up on Yggdrasill's point.

I'm probably even more bullish that CCS will be the standard, especially as Type-2 has all but won here. I think the writing is on the wall.

VW Group have confirmed their next range of PHEVs will have it, and given the lobbying power the German motor industry (and to a lesser extent the likes of Mennekes) has with the EU parliament, I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing it as a requirement for a conformity certificate. This would push CCS outside Germany.

TBH I don't see this as a bad thing. It would be great to see the end of socketed posts required to deal with competing standards, having almost lost a Type-2 cable to an overzealous locking pin on a public post

As an aside: You could argue Tesla are already using a DC standard, Type 2: "DC-Mid", which does re-purpose the AC pins for DC. Tesla are just "pushing" the current rating (probably based on duty cycles and tapering effects, and the 140A current rating of DC Mid being a 1hr continuous one). I guess as they have liability for both the car and the station, this is fine. (Others have noted the internal wiring is tightly specified on a similar basis)

I do have to wonder if at least in part, the reason Tesla didn't come with CCS from day one in the EU, was because it would have involved expensive retooling to the body panels to physically fit the port.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Following up on Yggdrasill's point.

I'm probably even more bullish that CCS will be the standard, especially as Type-2 has all but won here. I think the writing is on the wall.

VW Group have confirmed their next range of PHEVs will have it, and given the lobbying power the German motor industry (and to a lesser extent the likes of Mennekes) has with the EU parliament, I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing it as a requirement for a conformity certificate. This would push CCS outside Germany.

TBH I don't see this as a bad thing. It would be great to see the end of socketed posts required to deal with competing standards, having almost lost a Type-2 cable to an overzealous locking pin on a public post

As an aside: You could argue Tesla are already using a DC standard, Type 2: "DC-Mid", which does re-purpose the AC pins for DC. Tesla are just "pushing" the current rating (probably based on duty cycles and tapering effects, and the 140A current rating of DC Mid being a 1hr continuous one). I guess as they have liability for both the car and the station, this is fine. (Others have noted the internal wiring is tightly specified on a similar basis)

I do have to wonder if at least in part, the reason Tesla didn't come with CCS from day one in the EU, was because it would have involved expensive retooling to the body panels to physically fit the port.

I agree I think CCS is probably going to win over the Tesla Type 2. In 10 years I expect to see all cars equipped with CCS. But the superchargers could still be using the Tesla Type 2, and all supercharger-compatible cars would need a Tesla Type 2 compatible CCS plug.

If Tesla is to change the plugs on the superchargers, current owners would need an adapter, which isn't ideal. Better to equip all new cars with Tesla Type 2 compatible CCS, wait 20 years until the current cars are mostly gone, and then start replacing the Tesla Type 2 with CCS. CCS does have the advantage of being future-proof to a much greater extent. If Tesla can push 120 kW through the Type 2, they might be able to push 300 kW through a CCS plug.

And once Tesla starts selling cars with Tesla Type 2 compatible CCS plugs, this is an instant benefit for owners, who will then be able to charge at 50 kW all over the place, without adapters. (I think there's already 100-200 CCS chargers in Norway.) This is a much more attractive proposition than a CHAdeMO adapter.

One thing I disagree with you is the aversion to socketed posts. This is the cheapest way to carpet parking lots with charge points. Type 2 is good for load sharing, so uncabled Type 2 should be in every parking lot. In my view of the future, the only cable (non-enthusiast) EV owners carry around is the Type 2 cable.

 

[Candleflame]

If Tesla can deliver 135kwh with a bit of tinkering they will be able to deliver 150kwh through the current superchargers. That is more than enough. (20min for 10% to 80% charge on a 85kwh battery). The catch is not the the charging power. it's the tapering and the battery accepting higher Cs of charge. Up to that point we can have 1000kw CCS chargers, it won't do ****.

 

[Yggdrasill]

If Tesla can deliver 135kwh with a bit of tinkering they will be able to deliver 150kwh through the current superchargers. That is more than enough. (20min for 10% to 80% charge on a 85kwh battery). The catch is not the the charging power. it's the tapering and the battery accepting higher Cs of charge. Up to that point we can have 1000kw CCS chargers, it won't do ****.

135-150 kW is enough, today. Tomorrow, who knows.

In 10 years, you might have a full size Tesla pickup or SUV intended for towing, which might be equipped with a 200 kWh battery pack. That would mean that even without tapering, a 150 kW charger would use 1 hour and 20 minutes. That's not extremely good. 300 kW would allow you to charge the battery 0-100% in a much more tolerable 40 minutes.

I think the above scenario is approximately the most extreme use case we have to expect. It's unlikely a car will need more than 200 kWh in 40 minutes; then you're probably talking about trucks and buses, with their own heavy duty plug.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Thank you for your helpful explanation.

In the US I think that Tesla has a real chance of pulling away from the competition rapidly if they are successful with both the Gigafactory and the Model 3. Currently I don't see the major players having the resolve to quickly increase battery production to stay apace with hundreds of thousands of Teslas per year. Even Nissan who has significant battery resources seems likely to maintain a conservative approach to ramping up production. If a major player such as Daimler were to adopt the Tesla specification and enter the market with a serious long range EV, things could turn around quickly.

Larry

Well, for J1772 to become the undisputed AC standard, the other car companies don't need a single long range EV. The Plug-in Prius has a J1772. If you need 500k sales of plug-in hybrids for J1772 to become the dominant standard, they need approximately 2.25 GWh of batteries, or under 10% of what the Gigafactory will produce.

 

[smac]

One thing I disagree with you is the aversion to socketed posts. This is the cheapest way to carpet parking lots with charge points. Type 2 is good for load sharing, so uncabled Type 2 should be in every parking lot. In my view of the future, the only cable (non-enthusiast) EV owners carry around is the Type 2 cable.

The material difference is really only xM of cable able to carry 11kW (assuming a plug being equal to a socket in cost terms) and in return you lose the locking solenoid. Not sure it would be much cheaper. (I'm still assuming A/C Type-2 BTW, not CCS for this sort of application)

So far public posts have proven very unreliable here in the UK, often losing the GPRS/3G signal that controls the session, resulting in "hostaged" cables. (Especially when you use iOS/Android apps not RFID cards).

The other thing, and we are talking about mass adoption here, and I think socketed posts are really unfriendly from a user perspective.
- The cables invariably get wet and muddy, so you get your clothes dirty coiling it back up.
- You have to pack / unpack the boot (trunk) in such a way to access the cable. With infrequent charging at public posts, given the Tesla's range, it's often buried

I had a socketed unit put in at home, it didn't take long before I got so fed up with these drawbacks I bought a cheap lightweight (1phx32A) second Type-2 cable I just leave constantly plugged in.


BTW I am completely with you on blanketing car parks with 7/11/22kW AC. I have yet to do a journey in my Model S that wouldn't be better served with overnight charging in a public car park. (Particularly airports actually, but we would need some sort of "electronic valet" system).

Consumer wins, as charging time is irrelevant, power companies win as it can use overnight base load, Tesla win as it reduces peak demand pressure on Superchargers.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The material difference is really only xM of cable able to carry 11kW (assuming a plug being equal to a socket in cost terms) and in return you lose the locking solenoid. Not sure it would be much cheaper. (I'm still assuming A/C Type-2 BTW, not CCS for this sort of application)

So far public posts have proven very unreliable here in the UK, often losing the GPRS/3G signal that controls the session, resulting in "hostaged" cables. (Especially when you use iOS/Android apps not RFID cards).

Yeah. RFID/GPRS/3G/4G/whatever isn't the future. The only sensible way to do it is to include the charge in the parking fee.

The other thing, and we are talking about mass adoption here, and I think socketed posts are really unfriendly from a user perspective.
- The cables invariably get wet and muddy, so you get your clothes dirty coiling it back up.
- You have to pack / unpack the boot (trunk) in such a way to access the cable. With infrequent charging at public posts, given the Tesla's range, it's often buried

The first point doesn't get much better with cabled Type 2. In addition to dirty cables, they will also be broken from time to time, after people have left them on the ground, backed over them with their cars, vandals have cut, burnt, carved into the cables, etc. There was a user on the EV forum here who reported he came to a Supercharger where someone had filled all the supercharger plugs with sand. Why - no one knows. Chargers should be as simple as possible, something like this would have been good (which is what I have in my garage): IEC 60309 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But completely dumb sockets can't do dynamic load sharing, so they scale to a certain point, and then you need Type 2 to further increase the number of charging points.

 

[Spidy]

This whole discussion seems to be very US centric.

For example this whole dealership stuff does not exist in the same way in most European countries. Sure there are dealerships In Germany, but at the same time you can also just configure the car you want on www.bmw.de It's pretty close to they way Tesla operates.


And I think that in Europe or at least in Germany a Model 3 style car will most be used as commute car to save gas and money. Which means Supercharging might not be to important, not even to mention the overall shorter distances and that public transport is also often an option (high speed train)

In addition there is also a charging network so you don't have to use 5 different apps: ChargeNow

BMW also has a car sharing service (DriveNow) if they expand this and maybe also involve some dealerships I could easily seem them offer a services for BEV customers where they could get a cheap ICE car for a shop time for long distance travel.

 

[Model 3]

And I think that in Europe or at least in Germany a Model 3 style car will most be used as commute car to save gas and money. Which means Supercharging might not be to important, not even to mention the overall shorter distances and that public transport is also often an option (high speed train)

Well, I'm in Europe, but not in Germany. And I plan on having the Model 3 as my #1 car, and use it in my daily short-trips, but also on any longer roadtrips I may do. Model 3 without any way to use the supercharger network? I would be looking very closely on the new Leaf that is rumoured to come with at least double the range of the current (and better looking to?). It will according to the rumors hit the marked at least a year before the Model 3, and probably have a lower price. And without the supercharger network I'm not sure the Model 3 will have any more to offer that I care for. Better performances? Better looking? Ok, fine, but waiting one full year or more, and pay more for that? At least I will get the ChaDEmo with the Leaf (or maybe CCS?).

So no, ANY longrange BEV will - also in Europe - need a "supercharger network". If you will only do some short distance commutes, you don't need a long range BEV.

 

[dhanson865]

Well, I'm in Europe, but not in Germany. And I plan on having the Model 3 as my #1 car, and use it in my daily short-trips, but also on any longer roadtrips I may do. Model 3 without any way to use the supercharger network? I would be looking very closely on the new Leaf that is rumoured to come with at least double the range of the current (and better looking to?). It will according to the rumors hit the marked at least a year before the Model 3, and probably have a lower price. And without the supercharger network I'm not sure the Model 3 will have any more to offer that I care for. Better performances? Better looking? Ok, fine, but waiting one full year or more, and pay more for that? At least I will get the ChaDEmo with the Leaf (or maybe CCS?).

So no, ANY longrange BEV will - also in Europe - need a "supercharger network". If you will only do some short distance commutes, you don't need a long range BEV.

Latest leak on the mynissanleaf forum has the 2016 Leaf with a 30 kWh battery and the same slow 6.x KW charger.

It appears Nissan won't up the battery capacity any higher than Kia makes them (with the Kia Soul EV currently being the longest range EV outside of Tesla).

I find it hard to believe Nissan will step up and "double" range from the old 24 kWh pack any time soon if they are bumping to 30 kWh in between now and then.

My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - 2016 Nissan LEAF Information - 30 kWh ?! is the leak.

 

[Model 3]

Latest leak on the mynissanleaf forum has the 2016 Leaf with a 30 kWh battery and the same slow 6.x KW charger.

Well, if your right about this, there is no need for me to look at Leaf But maybe hope for the GM/Chevy/Opel Bolt?

What I was referring to was this:
https://transportevolved.com/2014/12/02/carlos-ghosn-says-yes-double-range-nissan-leaf-near-future/

“Is Nissan working on new batteries?” asked the host.
“Yes,” confirmed Ghosn.
“Can you tell us more?” the host continues.
“No,” said Ghosn.
“Will the range double?” the host presses.
“Yes,” said Ghosn.
“That means more than 400 kilometres?” the host enquires.
“Yes,” came the answer.

 

[dhanson865]

Well, if your right about this, there is no need for me to look at Leaf But maybe hope for the GM/Chevy/Opel Bolt?

What I was referring to was this:
https://transportevolved.com/2014/12/02/carlos-ghosn-says-yes-double-range-nissan-leaf-near-future/

been discussed, hashed, rehashed, won't happen any time soon.

Model 3 will be available before Nissan makes a Leaf that does 200+ miles in the most easy going city test or has a larger than 36 kWh battery.

I'm still disappointed that they didn't up the charging speed for L2. They went from 3.x KW in 2011 to 6.x KW in 2013 but no increase in 2015 or 2016? At this rate when they up the battery capacity to something more interesting the charger they'll choose will still be less than 9.x KW. Will they stay at 6.x KW forever or will they go to 7.x KW after the big refresh?

Given the commonality of 32 amp EVSEs now I'm looking for 7.2KW/7.7KW (depending on the nameplate method) charger or better. You'd think they'd try to respond considering Tesla is at 9.6KW/10KW and several others have moved up to 7.x KW.

Either way I expect Nissan will surprise us on the down side for both battery and charger.

 

[EVNow]

Well, if your right about this, there is no need for me to look at Leaf But maybe hope for the GM/Chevy/Opel Bolt?

What I was referring to was this:
https://transportevolved.com/2014/12/02/carlos-ghosn-says-yes-double-range-nissan-leaf-near-future/

MY16 is not Gen 2 Leaf. Gen 2 comes as MY17 - sometime in Oct 2016.

Infact the leak tells us how Nissan might do this. They will push the 30 kWh battery to S - and the new larger batteries to SV/SL.

- - - Updated - - -

BTW, this is where Bolt is getting its battery from.

5 key developments in the electric car world - Western Massachusetts Breaking News and First Warning Weather with WGGB.com ABC 40

LG Chem, a Korean chemical engineering company, announced its intention to be a supplier of larger batteries to car manufacturers who are interested in longer range EVs. LG Chem is targeting a 200-300 mile range battery pack. The company contends that currently most EVs with their 75-90 mile range have a limited appeal and that hinders the potential for market growth. Currently, only the Tesla Model S possesses a truly long-range battery pack. To that end, LG Chem says it would begin to offer large capacity lithium-ion batteries that hold between 80 and 120 kWh. LG Chem is already a supplier for the Chevrolet Volt. For those who remember, GM announced this past January that the Bolt, a new pure EV that will go into production in 2016, will have a 200-mile range. It’s easy to connect the dots—the Bolt might be the early bird to incorporate such a long-range battery. Such long-range EVs have the potential to dramatically shake up the electric-car landscape and appeal to a larger audience.

 

[Tedkidd]

I agree, without Supercharging as an option, there is probably no Model 3 in my future.

I agree, 6.6 charging is too slow, probably for any car with more than 50 miles range. (My 3.3 is a bummer.)

My buddy just got the Mercedes, and the 10k charge rate is fantastic. I have trouble imagining being interested in a 100+ range car with less.

 

[Model 3]

been discussed, hashed, rehashed, won't happen any time soon.

MY16 is not Gen 2 Leaf. Gen 2 comes as MY17 - sometime in Oct 2016.

Thanks for the updates As you may clearly see, I have not followed Leaf that closely It was/is not a real option to the Model 3 - unless Model 3 would not get the SuperCharger access. But that I'm sure it will The supercharger network is what's really setts Tesla apart from "all the rest".

 

[EVNow]

The supercharger network is what's really setts Tesla apart from "all the rest".

Exactly. A lot of people are under the mistaken assumption that Tesla's superiority in range is here for ever - and only Tesla's giga factory can make batteries for for 500k cars / yr.

The range superiority is short lived - and there is enough capacity (and potential to increase it) for both LG & Nissan, quite easily.

But no OEM has shown an interest in building and owning a spread-out charging network. So, we have to see how that will play out - can chaotic independently owned but denser charging stations compete with proprietary network ? Will it be like iOS vs Android ? We'll have a wait a few years to find out ...

 

[mrdoubleb]

Exactly. A lot of people are under the mistaken assumption that Tesla's superiority in range is here for ever - and only Tesla's giga factory can make batteries for for 500k cars / yr.

The range superiority is short lived - and there is enough capacity (and potential to increase it) for both LG & Nissan, quite easily.

But no OEM has shown an interest in building and owning a spread-out charging network. So, we have to see how that will play out - can chaotic independently owned but denser charging stations compete with proprietary network ? Will it be like iOS vs Android ? We'll have a wait a few years to find out ...

While the range advantage will eventually go away (unless Tesla will raise the bar the moment others get close :tongue: ), i do expect them to have a price/kwh advantage until someone else builds a Gigafactory too.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Exactly. A lot of people are under the mistaken assumption that Tesla's superiority in range is here for ever - and only Tesla's giga factory can make batteries for for 500k cars / yr.

The range superiority is short lived - and there is enough capacity (and potential to increase it) for both LG & Nissan, quite easily.

But no OEM has shown an interest in building and owning a spread-out charging network. So, we have to see how that will play out - can chaotic independently owned but denser charging stations compete with proprietary network ? Will it be like iOS vs Android ? We'll have a wait a few years to find out ...

True, over a few years LG and Nissan could in theory probably support a global capacity of several 100's of thousands of cars if the demand supported it. However, the fact remains that the largest EV market remains the US, and in the short-term (the time frame that the OP is interested in) that battery capacity better be sourced from battery plants located in the US if GM and Nissan plan to avoid losing money. Gigafactory #1 is being built in the US with sufficient capacity to accommodate that mass market demand.

In contrast after the initial completion of the LG Holland, Michigan battery factory and the Nissan, Tennessee factory with much less capacity, neither GM nor Nissan has shown an interest in further expanding the capacity at those US factories. The reason is simple, demand hasn't been strong enough for the plug ins that they are currently marketing to justify that domestic expansion. They will first have to do a better job at pricing, designing a compelling EV, and marketing it to the US driving public.

In addition, their failure to partner with Tesla or build their own competing fast charging network distributed along major highways doesn't assist them in marketing a long-range EV upon which to justify investing in additional battery production lines to support a mass market EV.

Larry

 

[EVNow]

In contrast after the initial completion of the LG Holland, Michigan battery factory and the Nissan, Tennessee factory with much less capacity, neither GM nor Nissan has shown an interest in further expanding the capacity at those US factories. The reason is simple, demand hasn't been strong enough for the plug ins that they are currently marketing to justify that domestic expansion. They will first have to do a better job at pricing, designing a compelling EV, and marketing it to the US driving public.

Without looking at the numbers, if someone were to read your comments, one would think Tesla is the #1 seller of EVs.

BTW, TN facility is bigger than Holland's. Infact it can make some 200k packs as I linked earlier. But the machinery is not there - just like in the Gigafactory. Both these factories (gigfactory & Nissan's TN one) will expand to meet the demand.

There are simply no supply side constraints in building more batteries - unlike what a lot of Tesla fans will try to convince you. Yes, it could take a year to expand - but then, Tesla model slips are counted in years too. Anyway, it is not like, Tesla can produce 500k Model 3s the first year.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Without looking at the numbers, if someone were to read your comments, one would think Tesla is the #1 seller of EVs.

This thread is about the first manufacturer to build an affordable, long-range EV. Yes, Tesla is the current #1 seller of long-range EVs. You may find it surprising, but in my state of Florida there are significantly more Tesla's on the roads than the much less expensive LEAF. You can continue to discuss how easy it will be in theory for these domestic battery factories to ramp up production and you will get no dispute from me. However, that will only happen if the demand exists. So far only Tesla is making a compelling long range EV at any price, and only Tesla is showing an aggressive resolve to build domestic battery capacity far in excess of any other OEM. Yes, it will take time for Tesla to ramp up to 500,000 long-range EVs, but it is putting the means in place to truly build an affordable, mass market EV. So far, no one else is showing such resolve. As you say, no doubt these other players are merely playing their cards close to their chest. :wink:

Larry