Could Model 3 be too late?

[Twiglett]

Tesla may have shipped fewer cars, but in terms of battery KW trundling around on wheels they must be #1 for that?
[edit]
No data here, just a gut feeling

 

[Larry Chanin]

Tesla may have shipped fewer cars, but in terms of battery KW trundling around on wheels they must be #1 for that?
[edit]
No data here, just a gut feeling

Here are some figures based on estimated US sales per InsideEV's Monthly Plug In Sales Scorecard:

It is generally recognized that Nissan has produced the most EVs.

In the US Nissan has produced an estimated 1,638,864 kWh worth of batteries to date in their LEAFs.

If all of Tesla's Model Ss were just 60 kWh batteries they would have produced 2,640,000 kWh of batteries to date in their Model S.

Larry

 

[Twiglett]

Thanks Larry, that makes sense then.
I remember reading a related comment about GM and their battery capacity not being enough to supply more than limited quantities for the Bolt

 

[EVNow]

Tesla may have shipped fewer cars, but in terms of battery KW trundling around on wheels they must be #1 for that?
[edit]
No data here, just a gut feeling

Hmmm ... the original comment said something about Nissan needing to learn how to sell cars. What has total kWh got to do with it ?

- - - Updated - - -

You can continue to discuss how easy it will be in theory for these domestic battery factories to ramp up production and you will get no dispute from me. However, that will only happen if the demand exists. So far only Tesla is making a compelling long range EV at any price, and only Tesla is showing an aggressive resolve to build domestic battery capacity far in excess of any other OEM.

You know, I can write the sentence exactly as you did - but interchanging Nissan & Tesla - long range ev and inexpensive ev.

We have to recognize Nissan and Tesla are going about this business from opposite directions. They have both been successful. For both of them the next step is critical - and not easy. Both of them can theoretically make long range inexpensive EVs. Both of them have the commitment to EVs. Success in the next step is not a given for either of them - there are a lot of things to get right.

 

[gregincal]

We have to recognize Nissan and Tesla are going about this business from opposite directions. They have both been successful. For both of them the next step is critical - and not easy. Both of them can theoretically make long range inexpensive EVs. Both of them have the commitment to EVs. Success in the next step is not a given for either of them - there are a lot of things to get right.

And I don't expect them to converge yet in the next generation. I would guess that the Model 3 will have better range and better performance/handling then the next generation Leaf. The next generation Leaf will be cheaper, though. This time around the two are selling at roughly comparable levels, so we'll see what happens with the next generation.

 

[favo]

The difference between Tesla and Nissan is that Tesla chose the bold path, while Nissan chose the conservative one. Not surprising, of course, but I think it indicates that Tesla will only be slowed in their pursuit of the goal by technical issues, while Nissan is more likely to hit the brakes for other reasons as well (oil prices, politics, NADA, etc.).

 

[Red Sage]

Without looking at the numbers, if someone were to read your comments, one would think Tesla is the #1 seller of EVs.

During 2014, the best selling vehicle worldwide that includes batteries was the Toyota Prius. It sold 424,236 units through all territories. Those come with a 1.4 kWh battery pack. So that amounts to a seemingly substantial 593,930.4 kWh worth of distributed capacity.

Meanwhile, Tesla Motors managed to deliver around 31,000 units worldwide in 2014. Most of those were sold with the 85 kWh battery pack. That is likely why the 60 kWh version was recently discontinued in favor of a 70 kWh capacity. But even if we assume all those cars were sold with the 60 kWh battery pack, that comes to 1,860,000 kWh of distributed capacity.

So yeah, by virtue of moving 3.13 times as much battery capacity in vehicles worldwide than a company that sold around 10,000,000 ICE vehicles, Tesla Motors is indeed the world's largest EV company and stuff.

As for Nissan... I am not one to applaud the LEAF. It is not a car I would own or recommend. A lot of folks note Nissan's 'commitment' to EVs. All they have done is allow their compliance car to be sold in every state. The car does not achieve a 100 mile range, let alone 150 or 200. The first of the traditional automobile manufacturers to exceed 150 miles fully electric range without an ICE crutch and for sale in every US state and territory will get my respect. Anything less, and they aren't even trying.

 

[Twiglett]

I think in this case you are absolutely, infallibly, inherently 100% incorrect

 

[EVNow]

The difference between Tesla and Nissan is that Tesla chose the bold path, while Nissan chose the conservative one. Not surprising, of course, but I think it indicates that Tesla will only be slowed in their pursuit of the goal by technical issues, while Nissan is more likely to hit the brakes for other reasons as well (oil prices, politics, NADA, etc.).

What is not bold about an OEM investing $5Billion on EVs ? You think that is conservative ? Look at Toyota or Honda if you want to see what conservative is.

- - - Updated - - -

During 2014, the best selling vehicle worldwide that includes batteries was the Toyota Prius.

If you want to dig further how about corolla - after all that has a battery as well.

We are talking BEV (or plugins, if you want to expand).

 

[Red Sage]

I think in this case you are absolutely, infallibly, inherently 100% incorrect

OK. Explain my error. Please.

- - - Updated - - -

If you want to dig further how about corolla - after all that has a battery as well.

We are talking BEV (or plugins, if you want to expand).

I'm fairly certain the word 'batteries' is plural. Toyota allowed people to believe the Prius was electric for years. And it does supposedly allow a whole, singular mile of emergency range after you run out of gas. It is, in fact, just another hybrid.

Someone else has already pointed out the Nissan LEAF has been eclipsed in annual battery pack capacity production by Model S, despite the annual sales rate of that 24 kWh EV. If you are impressed by the LEAF, fine. But be prepared to have your socks knocked off by Model ≡.

 

[physicsfita]

I'm fairly certain the word 'batteries' is plural. Toyota allowed people to believe the Prius was electric for years. And it does supposedly allow a whole, singular mile of emergency range after you run out of gas.

I was told three miles when I bought my car. :tongue:

 

[favo]

What is not bold about an OEM investing $5Billion on EVs ? You think that is conservative ? Look at Toyota or Honda if you want to see what conservative is.

Where is their Supercharger network? Where is their Gigafactory? Where is their car that people who don't care about EVs might buy? I give Nissan credit for trying at all, but they are taking the conservative BEV route. Toyota and Honda are not even in the BEV game, so they don't count. In fact, Toyota is wasting loads of time and money on their fuel cell dopemobile, which pretty much cancels out any credit they get for the Prius.

 

[Yoda101]

Nissan is currently the only serious manufacturer

As long as the Model 3 is delivered in 2018 or sooner I see no threat for Tesla. In fact I view the Model 3 release and success as a prerequisite for any other major car manufacturer delivering a 200+ mile real world range EV. I doubt Chevy, Ford or Nissan will beat Tesla to the punch and don't think any of the Germans are even in the running.

The Bolt might beat the 3 to market, but to me, it's the difference between essentially an extended-range Leaf vs. an electrified BMW 3 series. To me, there's no comparison, except possibly the price point.

The only manufacturer that might be able to compete with TM would be Nissan. They are serious with a BEV and are exploring longer range and high volume pack production with one of the battery supplier leaders. Unfortunately the are not really competition like the Germans could have been.

 

[EVNow]

I'm fairly certain the word 'batteries' is plural. Toyota allowed people to believe the Prius was electric for years. And it does supposedly allow a whole, singular mile of emergency range after you run out of gas. It is, in fact, just another hybrid.

What are you trying to say ? Prius should be considered an EV ?

Someone else has already pointed out the Nissan LEAF has been eclipsed in annual battery pack capacity production by Model S, despite the annual sales rate of that 24 kWh EV. If you are impressed by the LEAF, fine. But be prepared to have your socks knocked off by Model ≡.

The question is not whether I'm impressed or depressed by Leaf. I preferred to get the best car I could early rather than wait nearly a decade to just to get my socks knocked off. You are most likely to be the one most disappointed with Model 3 - since you have the highest expectations and the most optimistic around here.

Anyway you are way OT here and I don't even understand what you are trying to say.

- - - Updated - - -

Where is their Supercharger network? Where is their Gigafactory? Where is their car that people who don't care about EVs might buy? I give Nissan credit for trying at all, but they are taking the conservative BEV route. Toyota and Honda are not even in the BEV game, so they don't count. In fact, Toyota is wasting loads of time and money on their fuel cell dopemobile, which pretty much cancels out any credit they get for the Prius.

You have a weird definition of conservative. Where is the $30k BEV from Tesla ? Where is the battery and assembly factory for BEVs in 3 continents ?

Tesla has (had ?) nothing to lose, unlike Nissan. It is far more difficult for a established player to invest heavily in an untested field than a new comer.

 

[favo]

You have a weird definition of conservative. Where is the $30k BEV from Tesla ? Where is the battery and assembly factory for BEVs in 3 continents ?

I'm saying they are conservative for trying to minimize their risk and take a more cautious path with EVs (low range, low volume, low demand, don't hurt the ICE business much). Tesla at least has announced that their plan all along is to release a BEV in the $35K range. I haven't seen any announcements from Nissan about a Gigafactory or Superchargers. I'm pretty sure Tesla will be building factories in Europe and Asia before the decade is out.

Tesla has (had ?) nothing to lose, unlike Nissan. It is far more difficult for a established player to invest heavily in an untested field than a new comer.

Exactly why Nissan is following the conservative route. I'm not anti-Nissan (I own one), but I can't see giving them a ton of credit for the Leaf. It's the first step on a long journey, which I hope they will continue.

 

[S'toon]

What would people here prefer, more charging points at current SuperChargers or more SuperCharger locations?

If I had a tesla I would say more locations.

Well, considering here in Saskatchewan there are no Supercharger stations even being PLANNED to be installed for any time in the future, I'd go with more locations. Check out the Supercharger map. Big black hole around SK.

 

[scottm]

Well, considering here in Saskatchewan there are no Supercharger stations even being PLANNED to be installed for any time in the future, I'd go with more locations. Check out the Supercharger map. Big black hole around SK.

Your network will be Peavey Mart. Sun Country Highways, headquarters in Saskatchewan is your friend too.

Saskatoon -> Kindersley -> Medicine Hat -> Calgary

Once in Calgary (Canmore actually) you're away! jump onto the west coast SC network.

Peavey in Lethbridge provides a jump off point as south exit from Alberta... but it's a bit gappy yet to get onto the SC net due south of that.

 

[InternetDude]

Well, considering here in Saskatchewan there are no Supercharger stations even being PLANNED to be installed for any time in the future, I'd go with more locations. Check out the Supercharger map. Big black hole around SK.

The more SK residents that buy Teslas, the greater the chance of them putting in Superchargers. With that said, I'm used to SK being ignored or forgotten about with anything happening nationally. I told Tesla I'd like to see the Trans-Canada Supercharged between Calgary & Winnipeg (both cities are planned to get SCs).

 

[S'toon]

The more SK residents that buy Teslas, the greater the chance of them putting in Superchargers. With that said, I'm used to SK being ignored or forgotten about with anything happening nationally. I told Tesla I'd like to see the Trans-Canada Supercharged between Calgary & Winnipeg (both cities are planned to get SCs).

I'd say put in a Supercharger in S'toon and Davidson as well. Maybe another heading south towards ND, to facilitate north/south traffic.

 

[EVNow]

I'm saying they are conservative for trying to minimize their risk and take a more cautious path with EVs (low range, low volume, low demand, don't hurt the ICE business much).

You need to look at how much they are spending - and compare to other OEMs. Then you can decide whether they are conservative and trail blazing.