Could Model 3 be too late?

[smac]

A larger battery pack also would allow increased performance. While performance may not be a factor in your decision, I'd imagine it would be for quite a few people.

It would have to be fast to compete with the diesel BMW 3 series we get in the EU The current generation 335d is quicker than an M3 from a few years ago. 0-60 in 4.7 seconds, and well north of 155mph if derestricted. All whilst able to do 42 mpg (us) / 51 mpg (imp).

Don't get me wrong, I would prefer the EV experience, but they are very competent cars. If (when) BMW stick a token PHEV system in one of these, even if it did very few miles on EV in the real world, it would be stiff competition in the fleet market.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

It would have to be fast to compete with the diesel BMW 3 series we get in the EU The current generation 335d is quicker than an M3 from a few years ago. 0-60 in 4.7 seconds, and well north of 155mph if derestricted. All whilst able to do 42 mpg (us) / 51 mpg (imp).

Those are some pretty impressive numbers, I didn't realize it was that fast...was thinking more like 5.2 realm. Yeah, I could see that being a difficult cross-shop. While I lived in the UK for a while, I don't have a good grasp on accessibility to home charging. That's a major factor for many here...I believe there are around 60M homes in the US that have garages/carports.

That said, I should think the Model 3 could get pretty close to the 4 second mark, even with the base model. Of course, I don't know how much of an incentive it would be.

 

[Matias]

Model 3 debuts for $35,000 ($27,500 after USA's tax credit)...

Each manufacturer has a 200,000-vehicle cap on the number of cars it can sell with the credit. I guess Tesla can hit that limit before Model 3.

 

[aronth5]

Each manufacturer has a 200,000-vehicle cap on the number of cars it can sell with the credit. I guess Tesla can hit that limit before Model 3.

The often mentioned 200k cap is misleading. Once 200k cars have been sold there is a partial credit at 50% for the next 6 months and a 25% credit the following 6 months.

 

[dgpcolorado]

The often mentioned 200k cap is misleading. Once 200k cars have been sold there is a partial credit at 50% for the next 6 months and a 25% credit the following 6 months.

And the phase-out period doesn't begin until the second quarter after the car manufacturer hits 200k qualifying vehicles sold:

The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

Internal Revenue Bulletin - November 30, 2009 - Notice 2009-89. So, buyers during the quarter following the quarter when Tesla hits 200k USA sales will still get the full tax credit (if eligible -- I'm not).

 

[mrdoubleb]

I am just not sure what each of us mean by "too late".

To me, it means that someone else (BMW, VW group, etc) would come in and suddenly release a compelling low priced, long range EV in, say, 2016 or early 2017. They would either release a 35k EV with the same or even more range than the 3, or keep it close to 200 miles, but would go under 30k somehow.

And I just don't think this is technically possible unless e.g. BMW has supercapacitators or fairy dust based magical batteries being produced in a secret facility.

No one we know of, be it a car manufacturer or a battery maker has started to build or even design a battery factory comparable to GF1. Ergo, even if someone with deep deep pockets decides to undercut Tesla at a loss and do 300 miles at 30k just to kill the competition, they will not have enough cells, period. At most they could say "we accept 20k orders per year".

 

[EVNow]

No, sorry if I wasn't clear. I was talking about the first manufacturer to produce 100,000 long range EVs per year in the US.

Larry

Assuming sales of 100k in the US (and not just production) - I think it is an interesting question.

Nissan has been able to sell a 84 mile $30k car - with controversial looks and suspect battery in hot weather - 30k a year in the US. When Leaf 2 comes out with perhaps double the range for about the same price - and sportier looks and proven battery, can they triple the sales starting in 2017 ?

Tesla is coming from the other side - it has sold some 15k of high priced S in the US in one year. Can they sell 4x of that with a car starting at $35k ?

Answer to both seem to be yes - but I've been rather optimistic before.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Assuming sales of 100k in the US (and not just production) - I think it is an interesting question.

Nissan has been able to sell a 84 mile $30k car - with controversial looks and suspect battery in hot weather - 30k a year in the US. When Leaf 2 comes out with perhaps double the range for about the same price - and sportier looks and proven battery, can they triple the sales starting in 2017 ?

Tesla is coming from the other side - it has sold some 15k of high priced S inL the US in one year. Can they sell 4x of that with a car starting at $35k ?

Answer to both seem to be yes - but I've been rather optimistic before.

Yes, Nissan has been more serious than others in pursuing EVs and they represent a serious contender in producing a long distance, mass market EV. I may have missed it, but I have not seen any news that would lead me to believe that they will have the battery supply in place to support a long range, mass market EV. If they were to maintain the same sales level of the LEAF it would require about 2.3 times its current battery output to produce a 200 mile range EV. To reach 100,000 would require an increase of 3.3 times the LEAF's previous maximum sales numbers and would require more than 8 times the current battery output.

In looking at the sales numbers I posted earlier. Last year the LEAF reached a maximum of a little over 30,000 LEAFs and the Model S a little over 17,000. However, the Model S battery is more than 3 times bigger so that number is roughly equivalent to more than 53,000 LEAFs. This year if we annualize the year-to-date sales the LEAF is selling at an annualized rate of a little less than 17,000 and the Model S is selling at a rate of over 19,000. So Tesla seems to be accelerating, while Nissan seems to be deaccelarating despite the significant differences in selling prices.

Larry

 

[Grendal]

The Leaf sells because of their aggressive leasing plans. It's easy to make a sale of a Leaf when the monthly payment is the same or less than a regular gas car's gas cost. Nissan had to have taught their dealership's salespeople the lease versus gas cost sales technique.

I'm not seeing anything competitive on the horizon to go against the Model 3. There might be a few 150+ mile EV's on the market, but none of them will be compelling compared to the Tesla.

 

[EVNow]

I may have missed it, but I have not seen any news that would lead me to believe that they will have the battery supply in place to support a long range, mass market EV.

Indeed you have. They have 3 huge battery factories not being fully used/built out. The TN factory for example can be expanded to 200k packs a year.

Nissan-Renault to keep battery factories open - MarketWatch

Sales of the Leaf have been averaging around 3,000 a month in the U.S. in 2014, a 30% increase over 2013, but still are far below the 150,000 annual rate that Mr. Ghosn had hoped for. The plant in Smyrna is capable of building battery packs for up to 200,000 vehicles annually.

I don't know what 200k packs mean when the battery goes from 24kWh to 50 kWh and a different chemistry with higher density (did they mean # of modules or mWh or actual packs or what ?). In any case, I'm fairly sure Nissan can expand the capacity as needed in a year or two and by 2018 they can make and sell 100k EVs in the US if there is demand (they will also probably manufacture eNV-200s).

I think the battery supply "problem" is somewhat overblown. While someone like LG can't make enough extra batteries for 100k cars next year, they can definitely scale in 2 to 3 years, if an OEM contracts to buy that many. Do we even know how many factories LG is building / planning to build, say, in China ? Not every manufacturer has or cares to have a megaphone like Tesla and announces all the details.

 

[Canuck]

It would have to be fast to compete with the diesel BMW 3 series we get in the EU The current generation 335d is quicker than an M3 from a few years ago. 0-60 in 4.7 seconds, and well north of 155mph if derestricted. All whilst able to do 42 mpg (us) / 51 mpg (imp)

You're not doing 0-60 in 4.7 "all whilst able to do 42 mpg". It's one or the other but not both. That 42 mpg goes way down doing 0-60 fast, especially around town with a lot of stops and starts. That's where Tesla has a huge advantage and why I look forward to getting into it every day.

 

[Twiglett]

You're not doing 0-60 in 4.7 "all whilst able to do 42 mpg". It's one or the other but not both. That 42 mpg goes way down doing 0-60 fast, especially around town with a lot of stops and starts. That's where Tesla has a huge advantage and why I look forward to getting into it every day.

That is the same for any car though.
The P85D will do either 0-60 in 3.1 seconds or 245 miles on a charge, not both

 

[Larry Chanin]

Indeed you have. They have 3 huge battery factories not being fully used/built out. The TN factory for example can be expanded to 200k packs a year.

Nissan-Renault to keep battery factories open - MarketWatch



I don't know what 200k packs mean when the battery goes from 24kWh to 50 kWh and a different chemistry with higher density (did they mean # of modules or mWh or actual packs or what ?). In any case, I'm fairly sure Nissan can expand the capacity as needed in a year or two and by 2018 they can make and sell 100k EVs in the US if there is demand (they will also probably manufacture eNV-200s).

I think the battery supply "problem" is somewhat overblown. While someone like LG can't make enough extra batteries for 100k cars next year, they can definitely scale in 2 to 3 years, if an OEM contracts to buy that many. Do we even know how many factories LG is building / planning to build, say, in China ? Not every manufacturer has or cares to have a megaphone like Tesla and announces all the details.

Thanks for the information. You make a good case that it may be possible for Nissan to enter the EV mass market near the 100,000 unit level relatively soon. Of course Nissan's announced doubling of the current range of the LEAF won't get it to the 200+ miles that Tesla and GM have announced for their upcoming affordable mass market EVs.

We can be sure that the potential capacity of 200,000 battery packs for the Smyna battery plant is based on the present LEAF battery size since those numbers were being quoted even before the factory was built when only the LEAF with a 24 kWh battery was being contemplated. Therefore if Nissan were to expand to the maximum capacity of the Smyna plant it would only be able to produce around 84,000 EVs capable of 200+ miles assuming it chose to build a 200+ EV. If it were to merely double the range, then it may be able to produce 100,000 EVs at that US plant.

As you say Nissan may be able to make and sell 100,000 EVs in the US if there is demand. As I mentioned earlier so far the YTD demand appears to have significantly decreased from the peak in 2014 so it remains to be seen if Nissan would seriously consider expanding the plant with this reduction in demand. It might make sense for them to take a page out of the Tesla play book and put some of those batteries in a more compelling luxury vehicle and scale back the numbers of LEAFs with less than 200 miles of range.

Larry

 

[wallet.dat]

You're not doing 0-60 in 4.7 "all whilst able to do 42 mpg". It's one or the other but not both. That 42 mpg goes way down doing 0-60 fast, especially around town with a lot of stops and starts. That's where Tesla has a huge advantage and why I look forward to getting into it every day.

Was this a serious post?

 

[MartinAustin]

Was this a serious post?

The Model S has amazing energy efficiency. I have a P85... the lifetime average is 102MPG. (based on 34,020Wh/gallon and 334Wh/mile average) That's over 27,000 miles and includes all the dragging and speed tests I've ever done, all the demos and rides I've given to people and the times I've let them drive it and stomp the accelerator.

When I drive it economically I can guaranteed get it down to 275Wh/mile which is 123MPG. I have on one occasion gotten it down to 235Wh/mile (144MPG), which was a 50-mile trip involving freeway speeds, but also had a lot of traffic jams, on which the Model S thrives.

I have no doubt that Canuck was completely serious and didn't raise an eyebrow when I read his post.

 

[EVNow]

Thanks for the information. You make a good case that it may be possible for Nissan to enter the EV mass market near the 100,000 unit level relatively soon. Of course Nissan's announced doubling of the current range of the LEAF won't get it to the 200+ miles that Tesla and GM have announced for their upcoming affordable mass market EVs.

We have 2 things to go by when it comes to Leaf 2 range.
- In an interview Ghosn was asked - will Leaf 2 range double. He said yes.
- Talking about Bolt he said they will have a competitor matching (or beating) Bolt in range and time

I expect Leaf with multiple ranges - the top end with 200+ miles. Not everyone wants a 200+ mile EV, if a 100 mile EV can be had cheaper.

We can be sure that the potential capacity of 200,000 battery packs for the Smyna battery plant is based on the present LEAF battery size since those numbers were being quoted even before the factory was built when only the LEAF with a 24 kWh battery was being contemplated. Therefore if Nissan were to expand to the maximum capacity of the Smyna plant it would only be able to produce around 84,000 EVs capable of 200+ miles assuming it chose to build a 200+ EV. If it were to merely double the range, then it may be able to produce 100,000 EVs at that US plant.

No - we can't be sure. We just don't know what the limiting factor of the factory is - it could as well be modules and not MWh. Infact it is extremely unlikely to be MWh - it is most likely modules. Since gen 2 battery will have more wH per module (denser chemistry), the same # of modules will give Nissan more MWhs.

As you say Nissan may be able to make and sell 100,000 EVs in the US if there is demand. As I mentioned earlier so far the YTD demand appears to have significantly decreased from the peak in 2014 so it remains to be seen if Nissan would seriously consider expanding the plant with this reduction in demand. It might make sense for them to take a page out of the Tesla play book and put some of those batteries in a more compelling luxury vehicle and scale back the numbers of LEAFs with less than 200 miles of range.

Bad to compare peak of 2014 to lean months of 2015. Ofcourse it is down YTD as well - most likely because of cheap leases of Spark & Fiat.

Nissan is likely to increase volumes conservatively, in any case, because of their 2012 experience.

 

[Canuck]

Was this a serious post?

Yes, of course. What's not serious about my post?

I also have a Tahoe hybrid and if I feather the pedal, I can get up to about 25 mph on electric before the engine kicks in, and that really saves gas but it sure sucks driving that way. Moving a large mass from a standstill takes the most gas when driving, aside from climbing hills. With gas cars, fast acceleration off the line take a huge toll on gas mileage so I was pointing out that the BMW 42mpg claimed and 0-60 in 4.7 are mutually exclusive. It's not the same with electric. Of course, it also takes a toll on energy use but not nearly at the same level as with gas vehicles, as MartinAustin pointed out.

 

[Tezla-RSX3]

Model 3 definitely will not be late to the party. Anything that gets released before it will be considered an appetizer, a precursor to the main course everyone is salivating over, Model 3.

 

[dhanson865]

Can't see any real competition on the horizon. The new Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Bolt might come close when it comes to range, but they probably won't be premium cars, and they probably won't have supercharging (unless there are talks with Tesla ongoing behind closed doors).

The BMW i5 is rumoured to be a plug-in hybrid, due in 2018. So, it won't be all electric and it will arrive after the Model 3. Colour me unimpressed.

(this rant isn't against you, more like adding on to your post since I agree with it more than the OP)

I don't care who's cars you compare it to. List every car maker on the planet if you want.

I just drove a few hundred miles in a leaf the other day and I left a Nissan dealership with a single Chademo and 3 L2 chargers.

I drove past a 60+ mile wasteland on a major east west interstate with no chargers of any variety.

I stopped at a perfectly working chademo that chargepoint told me didn't exist and refused to start charging for me because I didn't have the chargepoint fob. (Plugshare said it was good, touchscreen worked, another car was plugged in right before I called but chargepoint gave me the runaround like they didn't want me to use it).

I drove a few more miles and found a perfectly nice charging area with 1 combo/CCS, 1 chademo, and 2 L2s. Worked great but I had to download an app, enter a credit card, figure out the charging network of the day. It was Greenlots and it worked as intended but it wasn't as easy as driving up and just plugging in.

I drove a few more miles and did Greenlots in another city again but then drove into a wasteland of nothing but overpriced L2s. The entire drive home after that was Blink L2s every few miles all with obnoxious UI chastising me for not having the card that I applied for the week before and not knowing the code I forgot to write down before the trip. So they charge me 50% surcharge for being a "guest" on top of the already overpriced electricity they are giving me (residential electric here is about $0.09 per kWh and charging a Leaf on a Blink as a guess like paying over $1 per kWh). I get that a pay charger has to make a profit but the pay chargers I used in North Carolina were noticeably cheaper.

I did charge at a couple of free L2s along the way and every time I did I compared the ease of use with the monstrosities I saw at the other locations. Free chargers are elegant and easy to use. Ignore the branding, ignore the instructions, plug it in.

Tesla has that (ease of use) right and it makes me want a Tesla so much more every time another supercharger location goes live. I shouldn't have to deal with 8 different charging providers just because I want to take a multiple city trip.

My god, You could make it look like a Prius, a Leaf, a Hummer, or a El Derado and I'd drive it over other options if it has the range, reliability, and ease of charging that Tesla promises.

I just don't think people understand how much convenience a Supercharger offers. It isn't just range, it isn't just simple to plug in and use, it's also standardized all over the planet and they don't put one or two here and there, they are wallpapering the planet with them 6 and 8 and 10 at a time.

Let me show you how other companies treat EV charging

That is a hard sign, permanently attached to an L2 charging station that has been sitting right next to a perfectly working charging station for several years. And to be clear they are both free L2s so the fact that the one next to it has always worked mitigates some of my distaste for that picture but not all of it.

Can you imagine a monstrosity like that permanently mounted on a Tesla Supercharger for years at a time?

Even if one were out of service it wouldn't be 1 of 2 like these L2s, it would most likely be 1 of 6 or 1 of 8 or more.

To use the common paraphrase ... "It's the superchargers stupid!"

 

[mrdoubleb]

To use the common paraphrase ... "It's the superchargers stupid!"

You are absolutely right! I've been of the opinion for some time now, that the SC network is the most brilliant part of their masterplan. By the time the 3 comes they'll have over a 1000 of these puppies all over the world. So with the Modle 3 doing 200-240 miles and SCs popping up all over the major roads, their ad campaign for the car would show 3 drivers googling the word "range anxiety" because they don't know what it means...