Crazy OTA Update Timing Theory

[Kevin Bohacz]

Sometimes I am frustrated by how slowly OTA updates are rolled out and how I seem to be near the end of the bread line. Other times I’m happy to have been left at the back of the line because I’ve ended up skipping over the more buggy releases.

The who, what, and when of OTA updates seem so capricious, but I am sure there is a method behind Tesla’s seemingly random madness.

My current MS 100D was built in 11/2017 delivered 1/2018. It was just updated to 2018.50.6 a month and a half ago, and only because a ranger came out to do some unrelated work and forced an update!

Factors:
1. I drive little, typically 8,000 miles per year or less.

2. The car is continually on a 250M fiber internet connection via mesh wi-fi, so connectivity is not an issue.

3. The last time I got a “natural” unforced update was toward the end of a long road trip (i.e. I had just put over a thousand miles on the car).

4. For months I have even been trying the “reboot urban legend” by rebooting my car several times a week.

5. I have contacted Tesla and 2018.50.6 is all I am entitled to for now.

6. The car's home wi-fi internet connection is behind a hardware firewall (WatchGuard), so incoming connections are restricted.

Theory:
I wonder if part of the criteria Tesla uses for rollouts is miles driven per month?

If Tesla engineering is rolling out OTA updates slowly to look for bugs and stamp them out before the bugs go fleet-wide, then who better to first target with OTA updates then people who are driving a lot?

I wish the Tesla Firmware Upgrade Tracker site included mileage information.

 

[boonedocks]

Sometimes I am frustrated by how slowly OTA updates are rolled out and how I seem to be near the end of the bread line. Other times I’m happy to have been left at the back of the line because I’ve ended up skipping over the more buggy releases.

The who, what, and when of OTA updates seem so capricious, but I am sure there is a method behind Tesla’s seemingly random madness.

My current MS 100D was built in 11/2017 delivered 1/2018. It was just updated to 2018.50.6 a month and a half ago, and only because a ranger came out to do some unrelated work and forced an update!

Factors:
1. I drive little, typically 8,000 miles per year or less.

2. The car is continually on a 250M fiber internet connection via mesh wi-fi, so connectivity is not an issue.

3. The last time I got a “natural” unforced update was toward the end of a long road trip (i.e. I had just put over a thousand miles on the car).

4. For months I have even been trying the “reboot urban legend” by rebooting my car several times a week.

5. I have contacted Tesla and 2018.50.6 is all I am entitled to for now.

6. The car's home wi-fi internet connection is behind a hardware firewall (WatchGuard), so incoming connections are restricted.

Theory:
I wonder if part of the criteria Tesla uses for rollouts is miles driven per month?

If Tesla engineering is rolling out OTA updates slowly to look for bugs and stamp them out before the bugs go fleet-wide, then who better to first target with OTA updates then people who are driving a lot?

I wish the Tesla Firmware Upgrade Tracker site included mileage information.

Wish it were true. I drive an avg of 700+ miles a week and purchased FSD in February 2017 so should be part of the early access program but still get updates on my Model S so late compared to the others. My wife’s X that has about 35 miles a week continually gets them much earlier than my S. \i/

 

[Cheburashka]

Well, my S has 30K miles in 2 years and I just drove SF to LA and I'm also still on 2018.50.6

 

[Unpilot]

I as on 2018.50.6 till last a couple of days ago when I got 2019.8.4.
Of course I really want 2019.8.5 as it has the NOA with auto lane change.
It is a mystery why OTA roll out happen and when and who.

 

[P100D_Me]

Theory:
I wonder if part of the criteria Tesla uses for rollouts is miles driven per month?

I'll throw in to this theory that I drive very short distances per month (car has only done 14,000kms in two years) and I just went from 2018.50.6 to 2019.8.4. What was interesting this time is the Telsa app on my phone first updated, then the next day I got a notification that the car had an update.
It can't be just a random selection but there doesn't seem to be any easy to decipher logic behind the roll outs, particularly when these scenarios are happening right now:
Multiple cars go from 2019.8.4 > 2019.8.5
Multiple cars go from 2019.8.5 > 2019.12
Why wouldn't all the 2019.8.4 cars just go straight to 2019.12?

P.S - Kevin, 250Mb fibre internet connection...nice!!

 

[DanZiz]

I'll throw in to this theory that I drive very short distances per month (car has only done 14,000kms in two years) and I just went from 2018.50.6 to 2019.8.4. What was interesting this time is the Telsa app on my phone first updated, then the next day I got a notification that the car had an update.
It can't be just a random selection but there doesn't seem to be any easy to decipher logic behind the roll outs, particularly when these scenarios are happening right now:
Multiple cars go from 2019.8.4 > 2019.8.5
Multiple cars go from 2019.8.5 > 2019.12
Why wouldn't all the 2019.8.4 cars just go straight to 2019.12?

P.S - Kevin, 250Mb fibre internet connection...nice!!

To keep it exciting I went from 2019.8.4 > 2019.12.

 

[P100D_Me]

Well there you go, it really is like a lottery.

 

[ewoodrick]

Rollouts often take 2 months, just live with it. Or assume that Tesla is just trying to make your life hard.

 

[Barry]

I want to volunteer for the late adopter program. Seems over the last year or two, QC has gotten considerably worse. V9 was a major disappointment for me. I tend not to get updates early, but if I did, I wouldn't install it until I read about the potential problems here.

 

[croman]

I drove a lot when I first got my car but since we welcomed my son (second child), its been less long distance driving and a lot more dropping off and local errand running (and a lot less driving generally).

I still get updates at about the same time. Either I get it during the first wave of rollouts (got 2019.8.4 that way and 2019.8.5 and 2019.12) or I get it towards the latter third of the fleet (usually 4 days after an update goes wide). The remaining third are usually on LTE or just don't get an update.

I've only called to get an update once and they put me on the list and I got the yellow clock 30 minutes later (when that was the only way (before the app notified you and well before you could update with the app (and now you can actually watch the update status in the car!))).

I have EAP/FSD (bought with car) but I don't think that matters. I am located 2 miles from a service center and I think that really helps me. I keep track of my updates thanks to @HankLloydRight 's website: ev-fw.com.

Sometimes it is nice to see where you came from: v8.0 2.48.204 and remember back then there was no AP2 software. That firmware gave AP2 cars vanilla cruise (yay?).

So in the long run, I think you'll see the data does support that it is a lottery but probably several factors are at play: your particular configuration (AP2+ recently but in 2019 its been mainly AP2.5/Model 3); your location and proximity to service; and whether your car has an active service ticket.

The reboot MCU thing is just coincidence. Honestly it must mess up your connection to the Mothership. I just leave my car alone and it does its thing. It only actually pulls the update after the Mothership puts your VIN on the list.

TLDR: Keep the Mothership happy (perhaps data is part of it).

 

[croman]

If you are still on 2018.50.6, I'd definitely call Tesla service and ask for an update. I did that once -- mention a specific feature you want (hey - I paid for EAP and I need X feature (Red light alert is a good one to pick because safety features can be done at a local service center and they don't want to clog up service). That is how I did my one update demand for AEB -- I was not happy to wait for a safety critical update, especially after I found out they specially sent that update to Consumer Reports to get back on their good side again but left me waiting.

If they tell you 50.6. is all your car qualifies for -- then I'd ask for a service center appointment and see if that ups the ante.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I wish the Tesla Firmware Upgrade Tracker site included mileage information.

Wouldn't really matter. The FW updates really are mostly a random lottery (for the most part).

For any theory one can propose, we can easily find examples to disprove it. No mileage, no rebooting, no high-speed bandwidth, no proximity to SCs, etc, etc, etc. There was one theory a while back going from V6 to V7 that you had to make sure you parked with all your valve stems at 12 o'clock. That theory holds about as much water as any other.

That doesn't mean Tesla doesn't internally have a system, because they probably do. But from the outside, it's random.

p.s. My P85D is still on 2018.18 (Ver 8).

p.p.s. By choice.

 

[P100D_Me]

There was one theory a while back going from V6 to V7 that you had to make sure you parked with all your valve stems at 12 o'clock.

Please tell me that was the theory proposed on April 1st? Or you forgot the sarcasm emoji.

That doesn't mean Tesla doesn't internally have a system, because they probably do. But from the outside, it's random.

If the deployment system is anything like the software testing and validation routines then it will be random. (In fairness 2019.8.4 has been ok for me so far, I just had to say it based on past 'updates').

 

[emmz0r]

Still waiting for that request update button.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Please tell me that was the theory proposed on April 1st? Or you forgot the sarcasm emoji.

I thought the sarcasm was obvious.

Although it was a real theory proposed here on TMC: Well, just make sure to align those valve stems properly. (the theory pre-dates this post, it's the quickest one I could find).

They have the same theory in Australia, but I think the valve stems need to be pointing down: How did your V8.0 update go?

TMC-Home of crazy FW update theories since 2012: Firmware 6.2 poll to say when you got it

 

[Barry]

If you are still on 2018.50.6, I'd definitely call Tesla service and ask for an update.

No thanks. When I was in for 4 year service 2 weeks ago, I asked to be rolled back to V8. they said they couldn't do it. I'm still on 2018.50.6. I see no reason to update for an AP1 car.

 

[Buster1]

Not sure. My Dec 2017 S75D is “stuck” on the same update as you. I drive 1500-2000 mi a month.

 

[Dan Baldwin]

My 2018 MCU1 P100D is still on 2018.50.6 . I drive an average amount, 11,600 miles in the last 9 months and the Tesla is on wifi every night in the garage. Power savings is off and always connected is checked. In the past, my firmware has always been updated fairly quickly. I'm wondering if vehicles with MCU1 are at the end of the update list ?

 

[David29]

I am on 2018.5.6. I had my annual service last week, done in my parking lot by a mobile service tech, and he said my firmware is up to date. So I remain patient. Then again, my car is AP1 and there seems to be little underway for AP1 cars. The exciting stuff seems directed at Model 3 in general, and AP2 or later....
Which is OK. I do not know of anything in the pipeline that sounds exciting for my car, and I share the fear that every recent change seems to be a mixed bag of advances and breaking things....

 

[jlv1]

Still waiting for that request update button.

Looks like 2019.12 might have that:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/2019-12-updated-browser-software-on-demand-new-games-and-more.148282