I'm pretty sure it's the tie downs flaps from the curtains ..flapping around in the wind. I don't get any problems beside container trucks. But any trailer with flapping tie downs can cause my phantom braking.
I'm not sure about the straps, but I'm 100% with you about it being curtain siders that are the most predictable at causing phantom braking, especially when there is no lane changing involved.
Also 100% that there is some underlying fundamental and dangerous behaviour that is not getting resolved.
I reckon I can predict 30-50% of phantom braking on motorways. My current most likely trigger is a full length artic, white with no signage or writing, slightly loose / flapping siding.
The other related issue I find very suspicious links back to green's early (and subsequent) posts showing clouds of radar reflections from a variety of objects that are not actually in front of the radar path.
My opinion is that this is secondary radar reflections, especially when linked to over head signs and passing under bridges.
Each trigger has very specific causes / conditions, and the only one I so far disagree with is shadows. I do not think the shadow is relevant, but the object casting the shadow could be.
Objects jumping around and suddenly changing type / orientation is a concern if the visualisation we see actually has any correlation with what the car bases decisions on. The other day I pulled up along side quite a high wall and the visualisation turned it into an intermittent large lorry!
I've followed so many threads about old 'fake' fsd and new 'real' fsd, 4D rewrites etc, and the one thing I was hoping for was that visualisations would become stable / non jittery. I do not understand how a safe system can be prepared to habitually and consistently be in a state of uncertainty / flux about what it is seeing. By the time you are along side a truck, your system logic should tell you that truck can't step directly sideways into your path.
My understanding was that by introducing stitched video from all sources and tracking objects in that combined feed a lot of random impossibilities would be eliminated.
I suppose there is a conflict between knowing certainty based on analysis and prediction compared with an ability to respond to the unpredictable. At the beginning, a NN can believe anything, including the completely impossible. It seems that even with a lot of training, very thin threads of the impossible still remain.