Current Pre-Owned/Used Market changes after AP 2.0

[LuPapa]

What kind of an effect do you think the release of the new AP 2.0 hardware will have on the value of current cars on the road?


Will AP 1.0 owners be more inclined to trade in their cars once the 2.0 is fully functioning? Will this push resale prices down? Better to get out of an AP 1.0 car now or wait it out?

 

[zer0cool]

It's hard to predict and depends a LOT on the rate at which we see actual functional improvements. E.g. if it takes a year for the car to be able to just merge on freeways (e.g., from one to another) and maybe stop at stop lights. Then I think the impact on residual will be minimal.

If on the other hand the new cars can self drive by end of 2017 (almost certainly not going to happen), then impact will be larger. There's of course a spectrum in between. Also depends on how old your car is. For most luxury cars, after about 5 years, all options are completely worthless.

Another important question, what if Hardware 2 is actually not enough for full auto driving? I think this is more likely than not. In that case, there will be AP 3.

 

[Sharkdiver76]

I think it will be a big drop just like our pre AP cars had, the value of my p85+ dropped 20k after AP1/P85D announcement was made. I think original non AP cars will hold current value as people who don't want or need AP feature will still value those cars vs someone who wants AP is going to bypass AP1 for newer version. The AP1 is basically a nonAP car in my view.

 

[Gizmotoy]

The AP1 is basically a nonAP car in my view.

In a year or two, maybe. For now, people wanting Autopilot still basically get the best possible performance out of AP1 hardware. Once AP2 comes online in December or early 2017 that'll take a bit of a hit, but it'll still be a valued option. If and when AP2's fully autonomous mode goes live, I'd agree with you. At that point there will be a huge drop in demand for AP1 vehicles.

 

[Sharkdiver76]

Yes but people aren't going to pay a premium when they know it is already outdated hardware. People lined up to trade non AP cars for new ones when software wasn't even turned on for a year. I will wait till car is capable of of picking me up or I can completely relax on long trips. I agree traffic assist cruise control and some features are awesome and wish i had, I just don't see someone who is in the market going to pay a high premium for that when AP2 is out there.

 

[MDinFL]

The CPO pricing seems to have dropped somewhat. Even though I already own my car, I like to look.

 

[PTADO]

I think it's too early to truly tell. There'll always be a future demand for electric, because the industry is full steam ahead. That being said, since it's just the beginning, I feel there will actually be a large market for used, non-2.0 models.

I personally think we're still a good 2-3 years away from 2.0 being the standard. Mostly due to the regulations, and partly due to consumer fear & acceptance. Those that HAVE to have fully autonomous 2.0 and beyond are a small sample pool. Those who want it, slightly larger pool, and those who will just wait till it's as common as a factory option on a Corolla are the largest.

Seemingly from what I've read, 2020-2021 is the general consensus for the "we're fully autonomous, too" as far as the rest of the industry is concerned. Tesla is just far, far (as far as implementation and experience) ahead, which in theory they always have been since they started.

Point: a used 2012 Model S will still be worth a decent amount of money in a few years. Comparatively, to a 2012 5-Series/7-Series BMW, E or S Class Mercedes, etc. (which are further and deeper into ICE-past) the Tesla will be worth FAR more. Why? There's a broader market. Before I bought my 2016, I was seriously looking at a 2012 S base model for $48K and was excited at the OPPORTUNITY to even be close to purchasing a Tesla in-general. More and more people are realizing what a Tesla is, who they area, and the desire that comes with that. AP 1.0 or 2.0, the used market is opening wider and wider every day. Then it comes down to the ol' principals of supply and demand.

Cliffs Notes:

-2.0 won't tank values of 1.0 equipped models.
-Tesla now has a used-vehicle market which it did not have previously.
-Used ICE vehicles will become less and less sought after, further reinforcing Tesla's used market.
-Supply and demand for a used Tesla will dictate it's value.
-Tesla rules.