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Cybertruck is a scam.
- Thread starter Zybane
- Start date
TessP100D
Active Member
Professional goal post movers… apply here.
I highly doubt the CT will be anywhere close to profitable until 2025 or 2026. When Musk talks about how the CT will not materially impact Tesla financials in 2024 - what I hear him really saying is that production will be very low - and therefore selling a CT even at the current prices - will result in losses on every single CT sold - until the ramp occurs sometime in 2025. How much of a loss? Given Musk, who is an eternal optimist, has repeatedly stated that the production challenges for the CT are considerable - that's code for costly IMHO. I suspect Tesla will lose 25-50% on every CT sold for much of 2024. It's no different than the losses Tesla saw early on for every other model - until volume ramp and manufacturing efficiencies were ironed out.
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This is how it is for almost every manufactured product. First you must invest in design and production strategy. Then build a factory and staff with workers. Start slow and learn as you go, how to most efficiently to flow production. Lose $ on the first ones, but make all that up and more as your volumes increase. Adapt your pricing to supply and demand as you go. All goes well and the profits roll in. If things go poorly adapt or go out of business.
Right - I guess what I'm saying here is that when Musk states there are considerable production challenges - and being the eternal optimist he is - that means there's still a ways to go before Tesla can manufacture a CT profitably - which means that will not ramp into volume CT production until these challenges have been resolved - otherwise if Tesla were to ramp production any time during 2024 prior to resolving the inefficiencies, cost overruns would materially impact financials, and Musk has repeatedly stated that 2024 CT production will not materially impact Tesla financials. If we assume Tesla will sell 30000 CTs total in 2024 at an average 100k purchase price, with 25% losses, here's the numbers:
30000*100k=3.00bb revenues
30000*125k=3.75bb costs (25%)
30000*150k=4.50bb costs (50%)
25% loss on every CT = 3.75bb costs
50% loss on every CT = 4.50bb costs
In the twelve months, ending September 2023, Tesla reported operating income of $10.7 billion on revenues of $95.9 billion. Even 750mm in additional costs over an entire year is already material to operating income, and if costs are 50%, that's 1.5bb in costs - that's definitely starting to be material to financials as it's greater than 10% of operating income. This is why I think many people are overestimating CT production capabilities for 2024.
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So TessP100
You know I have buyer’s remorse with my $82,000 wanna be loaded 2012 Ford Expedition. Oh yeah, I had to spend an additional $15,000 for a rebuilt motor last year ($67k + $15k = $82k). Talk about getting scammed. But is it possible that you aren’t happy with your P100 purchase, so now your blaming it all on Elon and the CT?
Look, you are way smarter than be, as I should have purchased a P100, rather than a 75 Model X, but I still like my Model X btw. So tap the brakes just a bit and this will all work out for the better or best. Don’t worry about those who bought the first 12 CTs or the next 100 after that.
In case you haven’t noticed, there are a boat load of Teslas driving around in my little suburb city , not to far from Silicon Valley, which is why there are now 6 different super charging stations in my little town, which in my case, is lifetime charging of my Model X, free of charge.
So for the many like me who have been scammed so frequently by the Big 3 auto makers, there is a very long line of us waiting patiently (emphasis added) to optimize our CT purchase. If Elon gives a little and we give a little more, and without getting scammed, Uncle Elon might as well own and control the lions share of the EV industry for a very very long time. To be continued.
sublimejackman
Member
When I first started my career as a wee 20yo IT consultant in 2005, I worked with a Chrysler dealership sales and inventory management systems. So, I got to see how the sausage was made. And this is exactly what they would do... When the new Hemi 300C came out, they would order one or two (to keep demand high) with a sticker price of like $40k (they only paid about $33k for it), then they would throw on rims, chrome grill, undercarriage protection, etc. (another $5k cost to them) Then list all the retail values of those items + labor + sticker price as the "sale price" of like $55k.
I guess some of this stuff that Tesla is forcing on early buyers is better than paint protection but this isn't new.
This is overtly slimy, predatory, and the thing that Tesla was supposed to put an end to. And is item #65 on why I went with a used Tesla this time and cancelled my order of a new Model S.
(the straw that broke my back on ever giving Tesla my money again 2 painful years with a Model S)
Tesla was supposed to be better but instead it's just a really huge version of the terrible dealer experience that already existed.
TessP100D
Active Member
Wow you still get free lifetime supercharging, just like me.
I like your summary on how Chrysler did it, which is probably the same or similar to Ford and Chevy. To think that when I finally broke down and bought my 1st new vehicle, always bought used for a whole lot cheaper during my 1st 20 years of driving, I got shafted by Ford, not just once with the 2000, a 2nd time with the 2012, which technically is my wife’s and still has the “CYBRTK1” plate, just to add insult to injury.
The market usually has a way of correcting itself, so if Elon is really that bad, even predatory, particularly without having any marketing department, it is hard to imagine that Tesla has not suffered the consequences. If I had bought a Y or and S, just a few months before Elon drops the price $15k, I’d be annoyed, but just as purchasing a home in 1988, just before a 20% price drop, “got that T-shirt too“, buyers remorse (temporarily though) was a normal reaction, but that does not make investing in real estate a scam. Well, let’s not go there.
There are a lot more of us, it seems, who really likely whatever it is Tesla, that we drive and own, which in the end, is just one more reason why Elon, who I can really give a hoot about, is one smart businessman, which is also why I think many, who purchase their CT in 2025, are not just going to get one of the best ev’s manufactured up until now, but hopefully will come at a sizably reduced price, like 20% of current. There are no guarantees in life, but if this happens, 1 or 2 of the Big 3, will end up like Kodak, Blockbuster Video and United States Steel.
And maybe you will be a happy Tesla customer, when you get your CT, just like me. But this time around, at least for me, I won’t feel like I got scammed at all. The newest and greatest Tesla masterpiece, with those 4680 batteries, 0 to 60 in 2.6, sounds like I’ll be riding shot gun in my wife’s new CT and I won’t be getting my regular free charge, just like you?
TessP100D
Active Member
AMPd
Well-Known Member
That’s not really saying much when you’ve got a backlog and minimal production.
with real world range on AT tires being closer to 250 miles (instead of the claimed ~318 miles); six figures for the founders edition and a few features not working... that backlog might shrink steadily without Tesla delivering
sublimejackman
Member
This could easily be a multi-billion dollar stumble for Tesla. But yeah, you're right, for the next 1-2 years supply will unlikely keep up with demand even at $100k+ a truck.
That being said, this just adds to the frustration people like me have with Tesla. I had $100k in my bank set a side for a new Model S over the summer. Instead, after yet another terrible experience with Tesla's customer service, I cancelled the order and I bought a used one on the private market instead. That may not be breaking the bank but Tesla has effectively lost me as a customer after 7 years and 2 new cars.
I had an early reservation for a Cybertruck. If they released one with an EPA range of ~400mi, it cost ~$80K and Tesla didn't play any of these tired dealership tricks (maybe even despite my other frustrations with Tesla), I would still have that reservation. But alas, here we are. Another day, another frustration with Tesla.
it's not a dealership trick!! it's the FOUNDATION SERIES !!!
joke aside - how is that different than a dealer adding $20k mark ups to a vehicle in high demand?
I'm sure that laser welded badge and a charging station is totally worth $20k...
sublimejackman
Member
There is no difference. This was always Tesla's plan. There was never going to be a $40k truck, there was never going to be a 600mi variant. It was always going to be $80-$120K with an EPA range of ~350mi. They always knew they wouldn't be able to make more than 10-20k of them in the first year and they knew demand would outstrip that initial production.
So the plan was always to market it as a $60k truck but not sell a single one for less than $100k for at least the first year or two. Tired and old trick at this point.
Tesla was touted as the solution to the dealer experience. But I think we all just had our heads in the sand and were just so excited about our first Tesla that we ignored the problems.
Tesla isn't better than a sleezy car dealer, they're just bigger. And I'm not sure why I expected Tesla to be any different. A naive mistake I won't make again.
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The same exact thing was said about the Model 3 in the first few months after it came out.
Seems like the same people are still around.
It was said that the Model 3 wasn't ever going to get down to $35k or something like that and that Tesla had no intentions on ever doing so.
It made it.
Just wait until things like inflation goes back down and the value of the dollar goes back up. <--factors outside of Tesla's control.
When Tesla first made its cost predictions on the CT 4+ or so years ago... inflation was down, and the value of the dollar was definitely higher
Just be patient.
funny how every other Tesla came down in price over the last 3 years - despite inflation going higher ...
Tesla knew they could never ever deliver a $39k Cybertruck - going for less than a Model Y - from the start. Same goes for the 500+ miles of range.
sublimejackman
Member
Well there is never going to be a full scale deflation of the US dollar (if you think inflation is bad) but yeah Tesla can't control 8% inflation. And the price of the Cybertruck isn't 10% or 20% more, it's 50%. $40k -> $60k. And, unlike the Model 3, I don't see the manufacturing and material cost of 304 SS going down anytime soon. It's a completely different supplychain issue vs. just a regular steel car. This isn't to mention the battery that's nearly twice the physical size.
I'm sure the CT will eventually stablize at a sub-$100k price tag for a base model in 18-24months. That's not the issue here, the issue is the slimy 1978 used car dealer tactics they're using after promising not to use them. Knowing full well that the first run of the truck would be priced at $100k+ and spouting off way cheaper numbers for marketing purposes.
Just say how much it costs. Stop playing games
jebinc
Well-Known Member
with real world range on AT tires being closer to 250 miles (instead of the claimed ~318 miles); six figures for the founders edition and a few features not working... that backlog might shrink steadily without Tesla delivering
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