Cybertruck production likely delayed....Post your best guess of WHEN for the record!

[kizamybute']

Elon Musk says the Cybertruck will cost $1 million if Tesla does this

The Tesla Cybertruck would cost $1 million if it were built before a steady, high volume supply of batteries was available, Elon Musk said.

www.yahoo.com

Knowing Tesla, assuming nobody is surprised by this. But, being that we already near August and Tesla still hasn't figured out the batteries, you know, just one of those teeny tiny little details needed for an Electric Vehicle, and the production line hasn't been set up yet as they're still sorting out Model Y production, Tesla is clearly still a long ways from getting the Cybertruck to production.

Tesla is famous for delays, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. But, as the Model 3 was, in Musk's own words "production hell", being that the Cybertruck is a ground up new vehicle, seems that setting up the factory to produce these things won't be easy.

Anyone have any REALISTIC guesses as to when true production will begin?

My best guess, based on all the data at hand, is that true production of the Cybertruck likely won't begin before the end of 2022. Maybe, just barely maybe, by December of 2022, but unlikely. Referring to actual production line vehicles, not a counting few hand built vehicles that Tesla might deliver, as they've done in the past.

Post your guesses for the record. Winner gets a cookie!! LOL

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and go with December, 2022 as my official guess of record!

 

[Jedi2155]

I'm going to guess 2023 Q2 given the delays related with 4680 production and priority on the Y. We might see some deliveries in Q4 2022 as you guessed, but Q2 2023 is my pessimistic view. I suspect the engineering is mostly done except for the batteries but at this point they're waiting for factory lines + 4680 design.

 

[TessP100D]

I’ve been saying 2023 for over a year.

but… Im now thinking sometime in late 2023-early 2024 Crazy Elon will announce their scraping the first version and working in a brand new design.
oh, and please send in your new $1,000.00 deposit right away. Make sure you get in line. Hurry.

 

[TessP100D]

The new 2022 Ford Raptor is scheduled to be released on 2/3/22. That’s where I will be. Then I won’t have to worry about the CT anymore.

 

[DRTII]

Considering CT is in Alpha it should enter Beta Q4 and then production late 2022, if we're looking at optimistic internal timelines.

That probably won't happen for a number of reasons.

1.) Battery: Can't do it without the new one. No firm projection on their availability right now, so punt it a year at least.

2.) Model Y production: This vehicle takes priority and they're looking to scale out Austin with Y's before CT's, and really, as long as demand is high, Y will need the scale. I don't see that ending for at least 2 years, if ever (see: F150)

3.) 2022 is basically a wash. Chip production is only satiating 2020 demand as we speak, and probably not even doing it well. So, when 2021's that are sitting on lots finally get chips, that flood will come in but it doesn't mean there's going to be excess chips for all that want them. Not even close.

So, 2022 might have a limited run (100 or less) IF it gets out of BETA, but I wouldn't expect first round of production until mid 2023, if ever. CT could theoretically get scrapped for a more efficient design, or using a chassis that can pull double or triple duty (like a van, large SUV) because as it stands the CT would be a one-off and that's not efficient from a production standpoint.

2024 I'd expect full scale production if the CT doesn't get scrapped entirely.

 

[TessP100D]

Considering CT is in Alpha it should enter Beta Q4 and then production late 2022, if we're looking at optimistic internal timelines.

That probably won't happen for a number of reasons.

1.) Battery: Can't do it without the new one. No firm projection on their availability right now, so punt it a year at least.

2.) Model Y production: This vehicle takes priority and they're looking to scale out Austin with Y's before CT's, and really, as long as demand is high, Y will need the scale. I don't see that ending for at least 2 years, if ever (see: F150)

3.) 2022 is basically a wash. Chip production is only satiating 2020 demand as we speak, and probably not even doing it well. So, when 2021's that are sitting on lots finally get chips, that flood will come in but it doesn't mean there's going to be excess chips for all that want them. Not even close.

So, 2022 might have a limited run (100 or less) IF it gets out of BETA, but I wouldn't expect first round of production until mid 2023, if ever. CT could theoretically get scrapped for a more efficient design, or using a chassis that can pull double or triple duty (like a van, large SUV) because as it stands the CT would be a one-off and that's not efficient from a production standpoint.

2024 I'd expect full scale production if the CT doesn't get scrapped entirely.

Exactly

 

[kizamybute']

Wow, I thought I was being a little pessimistic with my December, 2022 estimate. But, some good points made. And with Tesla's own history, I guess it probably is more likely to be even longer. I guess Elon doesn't realize that pickup trucks are the best selling vehicles in the world and the world is clamoring for an Electric Pickup. First to market, be it Ford, Rivian and even the Hummer to some degree, will certainly enjoy the very high demand, just as Tesla did for the past 8+ years as the only premium EV automaker. First to market with a truck will see the same benefits.

 

[Radish11]

Yeah I’m thinking 2023. I’ll say March 2023

 

[TessP100D]

so most of the reservation holders will bail I’m sure. The rest towards the back of the line should see the redesigned model in 2025-2026, maybe.
this is so crazy.

 

[TessP100D]

for a laugh. Try reading some stuff in the Cyber Truck Owners Club. Talk about fanboys. Omg. Last year it was like… no it’s coming in June of 2021 and I’m going first. Then is was… oh you hate Tesla and your a Fudster for saying it will be delayed. Now of course they have pivoted to … well let’s get it right before they ship it. And they all know everything about everything too. Lol.

it’s crazy over there.

 

[morrisdl]

....using a chassis that can pull double or triple duty (like a van, large SUV) because as it stands the CT would be a one-off and that's not efficient from a production standpoint....

That might be an outdated mindset that works with frames or engine/transmission combos. With giga-pressing and exoskin folding already more efficient. The computers and motors are already crossing over from 3>>Y>>S>>CyberTruck. IF these are truly just computer-on-wheels, then the are all already common platform.

My Rez is near 1,000,000 -- I guess delivery Q1 2023.

 

[Johnny Mac]

Summer 2022

 

[Maryland]

Hopefully they feel some pressure to get things rolling by 2022 because being one of the last ones to hit the market with an electric truck will hurt their sales compared to if they were first or close to first.

Man this sucks. I mean I know Elon is always overly optimistic (or outright lying) when it comes to his timelines, so I had to expect some delay. I guess what I am most disappointed about is having to drive my boring 04 Legacy around for another couple years lol. This car is such a turd.

 

[TessP100D]

Crazy Elon is very optimistic which is fine, but it charge deposits on vehicles and not delivering and the fraud which is FSD is complete BS and full of lies.
stop.. and imagine your one of those excited 2020 Roadster deposit holders. How excited do you think they are right now?

 

[Schradey]

I think Tesla will have a very strong incentive to beat - or at least match - the Ford F150 Lightning release in "spring" 2022 (before June 20th). I'm going with "spring" 2022 and I think Tesla will surprise and beat Ford by releasing CT a week or two before F150 Lightning -- on June 15th.

 

[WhiteWi]

I hoped to get it by end of 22 or mid 23. Since I am somewhere at 200-300k

 

[hcdavis3]

No one knows..not even Tesla.

 

[jebinc]

New batteries (at production volumes) will be the missing linch-pin; delaying CT and others. I’m 40,000 in line and ordered a Plaid while I wait until 2023 at the earliest. Might get “cancelled” and replaced as the Plaid+ was.

 

[Zer0t]

Earliest end of Q2 2023.

 

[Gurule92]

Start of Q2 2022