sillydriver
Member
I think yours is the most soothing response to my concern. Once the bad press is out of the news cycle (which it may be already) then things might return to normal quickly.
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I think you've missed a key one. The order page has an expected delivery date. US orders, especially California, have the shortest shipping time, yet have a delivery date of sept (a few have reported sooner). Which means there's a backlog of over a month's worth of orders. Once the news cycle has run its course, watch for that expected delivery date to get pushed back. As a matter of fact, vgrinshpun maintains a thread tracking this. There will be fluctuations, obviously, but nothing that hasn't been weathered before.
No one outside of Tesla knows the real demand, but that delivery date makes for a pretty good proxy.
sillydriver
Member
SebastianR
Active Member
To those who are concerned about the AP press these days: I would like to remind everyone that this is nothing in comparison to the fires that were reported earlier in the history of the Model S.
If you own a Model S / Model X and anybody lectures you on the use of Autopilot - just them that they can order the car without the feature if they don't like it. Even if they bought the car with AP, they don't have to use it.
In fact, if I had a Model S/X and someone would talk silly to me about AP, I would simply claim I don't have the feature. End of discussion
If you own a Model S / Model X and anybody lectures you on the use of Autopilot - just them that they can order the car without the feature if they don't like it. Even if they bought the car with AP, they don't have to use it.
In fact, if I had a Model S/X and someone would talk silly to me about AP, I would simply claim I don't have the feature. End of discussion
With the renewal of the referral, shouldn't Tesla just bite the bullet and reduce the sticker price with $1000? Wouldn't that be more in line with Tesla's stated goal of getting rid of the commercial games and sales tricks associated with the dealership in favour of a the-price-is-the-price approach? How much of a negative impact on demand would it be to just reduce headline price with $1000 and do away with the referral program?
The referral program is also a temporary expansion of the sales force. The original point of the program was to leverage word-of-mouth to increase sales without expanding the sales force itself. So it's not the same as a straight discount and shouldn't be looked at like one.
dennis
Model S Plaid
The referral program is not just about reducing the sticker price by $1000. It's also about having Tesla owners actively promoting the brand to their friends, family and coworkers. And yes, removing that would impact demand.
With the recent referral programs, Tesla promotes buyers to use referral code to get $1000 off. So referral discount is now given irrespective of the Tesla owners working for the sale.
dennis
Model S Plaid
But Tesla sends every owner a referral code and encourages them to use it to win prizes. Sure, many prospective buyers will get thir code from some random owner posting it on the Internet. But others will hear about Tesla from their friends and acquaintances who are vying for those prizes, like those who won an entry to the GF party.
The order turnaround has become really fast for MS and MX. Those willing to pick up from Fremont factory or nearby are getting their MS within 2 to 3 weeks.
Does it mean production rate has gone up significantly? Or, Lo and behold, do we have demand problem?
Does it mean production rate has gone up significantly? Or, Lo and behold, do we have demand problem?
It's no secret that production rate increase dramatically in the last quarter. Production capacity leapfrogged demand, therefore it is no surprise that new orders can enter the build queue relatively quickly. It's only a problem if that spare capacity costs Tesla (a lot of) money. Hopefully we will learn more when they release the financials for the last quarter and give some color to the numbers in the conference call.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
It's only a "problem" if Tesla finds themselves buildling inventory cars.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a base price drop. Remember, the base price rose, and subsequently Tesla claimed to have cut the production cost; this all went into increasing margins. They will be willing to sacrifice a little bit of margin (go down from 22% to 20%) to get cars moving, if we have reached some sort of demand plateau.
I think they like the $1000 discount because they can take it away if orders rise again. Whereas it can be a bit difficult to get people to stomach a base price increase.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a base price drop. Remember, the base price rose, and subsequently Tesla claimed to have cut the production cost; this all went into increasing margins. They will be willing to sacrifice a little bit of margin (go down from 22% to 20%) to get cars moving, if we have reached some sort of demand plateau.
I think they like the $1000 discount because they can take it away if orders rise again. Whereas it can be a bit difficult to get people to stomach a base price increase.
I have to say I'm surprised TSLA is holding up so well with the whole mobileye thing. If you buy a Model S now you are basically buying old technology and it's far more than a camera now.
Getting people to just buy a Model S or switch from a Model 3 to a Model S (see links) will be a much tougher sale now until Tesla makes an upgrade.
Anyone else get a call today about the Model 3?
Anyone else getting calls from Tesla? They're trying to get me into a 60 instead of waiting for the 3. • /r/teslamotors (bottom a few more people confirming calls)
Getting people to just buy a Model S or switch from a Model 3 to a Model S (see links) will be a much tougher sale now until Tesla makes an upgrade.
Anyone else get a call today about the Model 3?
Anyone else getting calls from Tesla? They're trying to get me into a 60 instead of waiting for the 3. • /r/teslamotors (bottom a few more people confirming calls)
People buy products and care about brand, features, and performance, they seldom care about the technology behind them. Do people care who supplied storage for iPhone, whether Micron or Hynix? All they care is that it is the storage with Apple brand behind it.
Mobileeye breakup is actually good for Tesla. Fully integrated product with autopilot hardware optimized for Tesla is the right way to go. Any part of autopilot is too important to rely on outside suppliers.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
They might not care about the tech behind it, but they care about new features and long term support.
Sure long term this can, be great, but what about the next few months? Would you buy a Model S or X right now when you know Tesla's new "in-house" Autopilot is around the corner?
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I think we'll start to see a demand problem when every Tesla showroom has their lot full of new unsold cars (like the dealers for every other automaker).
Until then, we're just reading tea leaves.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Agreed. Currently, Tesla has a different demand problem ... +400K reservations and no Model 3 available
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