-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
You reckon the growth is strong enough to go from 59 entries in the first 17 days of last month to just 10 this month?
I am actually quite skeptical about the 31K off claim. There is a lot of details that this could be glossing over.
I prefer to deal with the EV-CPO references to the specific VINs that link to Tesla page listing all of the options included with a particular car, and then compare this with authoritative source for the original price when the car was new. Since your post did not include the link to the car that you estimated was "discounted" 18K, I decided to do my own quick check. I used National Automobile Dealer Association (NADA) site for the original new car pricing.
In order to minimize effect of mileage I picked two "classic" design (pre-refresh) cars with 50 miles - one with the lowest price and another with the highest price. As seen from the summary below the depreciation is significantly less than 18K. It is almost identical for both cars at $13.8 - 13.9K, or 10 - 12%. Given that these three to six month old cars had 50 miles on them, they obviously were sitting in the stores and saw pretty substantial flow of passengers getting in and out of the car. Given this and also that these cars have pre-refresh design and lack numerous upgrades that are standard/available with the refreshed cars, I would not call this level of depreciation generous.
So going back to our discussion I just do not see that demo cars have huge "discounts" which you seem to suggest. I am ready to change my mind if you can present any data that are markedly different from the data I used. I think that the key to properly ascertaining depreciation is to use actual original pricing of the depreciated cars, NOT current pricing of new cars.
Last edited:
If you are convinced the user is lying then obviously I have no way to counter that.
Sorry for forgetting to include the link to the car I was speccing but I was actually trying to prove that $31k was way above and beyond usual depreciation so your two other examples actually strengthen that part of my argument.
Last edited:
Are we watching the same sheet?!? I downloaded it, sorted by confirmation date and simply counted rows between July 1st and July 17th versus August 1st and August 17th. The difference is quite evident.
Anyway just yesterday we had a kind soul enter his full VIN assigned on Aug 17th. Between Aug 2nd and Aug 17th therefore we had (as upper bound) between 1647 and 1753 Model S orders or a weekly rate between 781 and 818.
I actually specifically indicated that the reason I was skeptical was because there is a lot of details to be glossed over. I neither said nor imply that user is lying. It is most likely that they just compared apples and oranges...
I know, but if Tesla wants to sell 2000 cars a week or even 2200 or more that is at the lower end of new orders if one assumes 50/50 S/X. And at the moment it seems like they are working through the cars faster than they get new orders.
Also not really following X VINs. But looking in the 60d-order-delivery thread.seems more like 500 a week 174xx.@ 8/9 and 179xx @ 8/16.
When Tesla said that new orders would match production, but I would have expected 2000-2500 new orders a week instead of 1500-2000.
We thought about buying a demo car, but the refresh and other items made us keep our original plan to order. Great deal for those who are filling to accept the older style. My wife hated the old front end. That was her clincher.
I assume we are looking at the same sheet. I noticed that some people entered their information 2 weeks or even 4 weeks after their VIN assignments. This is the reason I did not want to pay attention to the Aug data.
Based on my daily counting, I feel the entry rate is slightly above 2 per day. Assuming the same rate, my estimation for the number of entries for this Q was ~280 one month ago. But recently, my estimation is above 319, which would be much higher than the last Q.
Odebek
Don't Panic
Lots of people don't find the spreadsheet until weeks after they place their order, so you won't have all the Aug orders for a month or so.
Looks like Tesla is not ready to show the next big thing in town yet. Instead, here is what they sent today - a potential demand lever.
----
A 2-year lease option is one of our most popular requests. We listened and are launching a limited time test of a 2-year lease on Model S and Model X. Starting at only $593/month (details here), our new 2-year lease program was designed just for you to drive electric today, and is available on all Model S and X orders placed by September 12th.
For additional savings, combine this offer with the Tesla Referral Program and apply a $1,000 credit towards your configuration. Just get the special personal code of any Tesla owner and enter it at the time of order.
----
----
A 2-year lease option is one of our most popular requests. We listened and are launching a limited time test of a 2-year lease on Model S and Model X. Starting at only $593/month (details here), our new 2-year lease program was designed just for you to drive electric today, and is available on all Model S and X orders placed by September 12th.
For additional savings, combine this offer with the Tesla Referral Program and apply a $1,000 credit towards your configuration. Just get the special personal code of any Tesla owner and enter it at the time of order.
----
MX rate is 1350 through August 17.
Days for 1000 entries the last three-thousands were : 9, 11,11,13+
Over four 1000-unit periods, average is 1000/11day - 90/day, 636/wk. (114/day July, 104/day Aug)
Appears to be slowing. Data doesn't lie.
Tesla has maintained 1000/wk for Model S for quite some time, almost an un-natural series of 140-142/day for four months now. Including through the MS60 re-introduction and apparent large amount of people posting online that they were ordering 60s. Some pulled-back from Model 3 orders to "now" and others not choosing a 75 because they really don't need to pay $9000 more.
Vin distribution for MS looks like this (Aug is 15475x on July 31 through Aug 17th - 15675x on 8/17)..
I present actual data that "analysts" like Ben Kallo, Adam Jonas or Trip Chowdhry do not. I think I have far more research done than Fidelity, Bailley and TROWE put together. They seem to just listen to the Earnings calls and see what analysts post and then buy billions in stock using other peoples' money. I present it as open-source research and feel everyone should base decisions on data, not opinion.
I think the next move after the Q1/Q2 build-out of lots of P90D and DL - is to make a bunch of MS60 and 60D inventory through Q3 into Q4 for inventory build to try to make it to the guidance number. Some vin # blocks now may be pre-assigned for such builds. That's what they did to end Q1 and within Q2 to keep the Vin # rate going at that 1000/wk, it seems.
And the noted 2-year lease program above allows people to "get their thrills for less money for a shorter time". Hmmm.
If Tesla were smart, they would lease (or even rent) their CPO cars to generate revenue.
Last edited:
You seem to regard your own opinion highly. haha!
Like I said many times before, a lot of new reservation holders do not come to these forums. Yeah yeah, I know you talked about highest VIN numbers, but Tesla never mentioned or implied that they would assign VIN sequentially. People in China are least likely to come and post their reservations here for obvious reasons.
Moreover, I saw this about someone tampering the spreadsheet. I know TSLA is the most hated stock and shorts do everything they can to influence. I hope that is not what happened here:
ColBatGuano
Member
Moreover, I saw this about someone tampering the spreadsheet. I know TSLA is the most hated stock and shorts do everything they can to influence. I hope that is not what happened here:[/QUOTE]
It appears that it was an honest mistake, unsure why it took 9 times to figure out what was going wrong. I know it took me a little time to figure out the spreadsheet because I'd never used a Google spreadsheet before.
It appears that it was an honest mistake, unsure why it took 9 times to figure out what was going wrong. I know it took me a little time to figure out the spreadsheet because I'd never used a Google spreadsheet before.
The search feature of Google docs is a bit brittle. You can get into trouble if your cursor is not in the focus of the drop down box on the upper right and a one finger typist who does not touch-type may not know they are typing in the wrong place. Honest mistake and current participants can find and fix bad elements due to change history tracking.
I'm actually astounded that the spreadsheet is so stable and trustworthy with thousands of people editing it per year, anonymously.
Similar threads
