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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I think it was mentioned here that ev-cpo has shown a bunch of pre-owned cars for EU and HK (100+). I went and looked and I don't know where the hell they take their data. As an example they list in the netherlands many cars, but if you go to the page:
Koop vandaag nog een nieuwe Tesla | Tesla Nederland
you will find out that there are none. The same goes for many other countries. I have my own tracking tool that uses the same AJAX API that Tesla website uses to show cars to you and I only see 3 cars, but I don't monitor Norway, France and UK though I can add those to my list just for interest how the situation evolves, but from what I see there are NO cars added since the quarter ended and no old cars except for the 3 I'm tracking.
The ev-cpo site shows 545 inventory and 110 CPO cars but interestingly enough none of them show up on the Tesla website so indeed, how the hell do they "track" it?
Koop vandaag nog een nieuwe Tesla | Tesla Nederland
you will find out that there are none. The same goes for many other countries. I have my own tracking tool that uses the same AJAX API that Tesla website uses to show cars to you and I only see 3 cars, but I don't monitor Norway, France and UK though I can add those to my list just for interest how the situation evolves, but from what I see there are NO cars added since the quarter ended and no old cars except for the 3 I'm tracking.
The ev-cpo site shows 545 inventory and 110 CPO cars but interestingly enough none of them show up on the Tesla website so indeed, how the hell do they "track" it?
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Ok, minor update, I was only looking for new cars, the AJAX url had options for new and used so I wasn't looking at CPO models before. So there are 42 cars of which 3 are new and the rest are used cars. Most in Denmark interestingly 
So here's the list that I see:
Number of cars in BE as new found: 1
Number of cars in BE as used found: 3
Number of cars in NL as used found: 5
Number of cars in IT as used found: 1
Number of cars in DK as used found: 27
Number of cars in DE as used found: 1
Number of cars in AT as used found: 2
Number of cars in SE as new found: 2
So here's the list that I see:Number of cars in BE as new found: 1
Number of cars in BE as used found: 3
Number of cars in NL as used found: 5
Number of cars in IT as used found: 1
Number of cars in DK as used found: 27
Number of cars in DE as used found: 1
Number of cars in AT as used found: 2
Number of cars in SE as new found: 2
Ok, minor update, I was only looking for new cars, the AJAX url had options for new and used so I wasn't looking at CPO models before. So there are 42 cars of which 3 are new and the rest are used cars. Most in Denmark interestingly
You are definitely missing cars, there are 545 new European cars and 109 used ones. @HankLloydRight is the maintainer of ev-cpo. He'll be able to tell you how he scrapes the full list.
I think these Vin # blocks will be realized tomorrow. Most likely the "unexpected" announcement. The office pool is now looking like a lower-priced MS50 and maybe even something in the way of some sort of partnership for selling them. Having the pre-assigned Vin #s makes sense in these matters.
dc_h
Active Member
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Another positive indicator of demand ...
Elon Musk says first 12 months of Tesla Model 3 production are ‘sold out’, what does it mean for the federal tax credit?
Elon Musk says first 12 months of Tesla Model 3 production are ‘sold out’, what does it mean for the federal tax credit?
I don't think that makes sense. For example, if it were a MS50 announcement, then they wouldn't need 2 days more to refine. For me, it's something they will demo. For example a new Autopilot or the HUD. But engineers being engineers, there is always the 2 extra days you need to finish something. Hence the delay. Both are also options that devalue the existing inventory pretty much immediately while a new battery size wouldn't do that. From a demand perspective it would be a great opportunity for Tesla to differentiate in the same way as they did with the facelift/classic last quarter. Get the 'old' inventory car without the option for a 5-15% reduction or order the latest and greatest for full price.
Anyway, the American inventory list is moving again. It was pegged at around 130 cars for a few weeks with all but a few cars at 0 discount. Now, most cars have a small consideration for being used as a demo car and they've already sold around 30 of them in a week or so. It shows there is a real appetite for deals on Tesla cars in the US.
Looks like demand shouldn't be a problem for the 4th quarter, and probably 1Q'17 too. They still have the 100D in their back pocket as well...
When I look at US inventory for sale on the Tesla website, I see only 11 Model Ss (9 75s and 2 70Ds). No 60s, no 90s and no P90s/P100Ds. I also see some Model Xs but all are P90Ds except 1 75D and 2 90Ds. Not much inventory at all. It has been similar for the past few days when I've checked. I expect they will want to transition out the existing demo/loaner cars so they can show off AP 2.0 but given the expanding delivery timeframes in Europe and the US, plus reports of increasing sales in China and discontinuing the X60D, all evidence seems to point to Tesla not being able to keep up with demand.
All the anomalies in VINs are now explained. The short shutdown in early October was to upgrade the line to put in the new Autopilot hardware. The massive selloff of inventory was both to raise cashflow, but also to refill the stores and loaner fleets with the new hardware. So a lot of production has gone in that direction for a while. Cars will now flow to customers again.
Inventory will come in one big dump. It's been that way for a while now.
Really now?
For example, riddle me this : VIN 1662xx went in production on the same day that vin 166212 was already available in Germany as an inventory car. Anyway, 170xxx was just assigned. That's 10k Model s 6 in 6 weeks. 1600/week. Model X therefore at max 800/week. Seems pretty lopsided too.Maybe combining the two data points above, it may simply be that a lot of VINS have been 'allocated' but not really assigned let alone produced. Or maybe already assigned but not produced. It's pretty difficult to get a good picture on what is going on today through the VINs but I agree that it always makes sense after a few months and the full timeline is known.
wesley888
Member
Really now?
Maybe combining the two data points above, it may simply be that a lot of VINS have been 'allocated' but not really assigned let alone produced. Or maybe already assigned but not produced. It's pretty difficult to get a good picture on what is going on today through the VINs but I agree that it always makes sense after a few months and the full timeline is known.
From the profile of the Vin #s - appears to be roughly 2000 that might fit the term "planned US/CA inventory" for the Q4 push. Both USA and Ontario offer healthy incentives. Now waiting to see them pop up. I expect that they will be AP 2.0 so that they do not present issues with a need for discounting as much as in Q3. The Vin # range 1665xx-169xxx fits the bill for range to watch for. And that one unit that came up in news as an early 100 kWh car, 168668 (white, left front wheel off after crash) would be in that range.
Maybe that car was an early production test for the 100kWh model that Tesla planned to sell later. Hence giving it a VIN far out in a range that would already contain regular 100kWh cars. But then Tesla crashed that car themselves. Insurance took it after paying out for the claim and sold it off without anyone really realizing that they need to step in and keep that car from entering the salvage cycle. Also explains why we saw it only once. : takes a very specific set of circumstances.
What I am intrigued by is the general lack of online posting about people ordering new MX these days. Vin #s keep progressing but perhaps they are also part of an inventory program through end of year into next where all sales locations will have a healthy amount of stock to sell from over the year's end into next. Especially in lands like Asia, Australia and some parts of Europe where 3 month or more wait times are commonplace.
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