Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[Realist]

That alone will not save the day. Everyone expects just that.

This is a company with 30 billion market cap in an extremely capital intense business. I've always been a long term bear for Tesla and I stick to that. Nobody would believe that we could see the final ATH RIGHT NOW. Optimism is on a maximum. Everyone thinks Tesla will disrupt its industry and crush any competition. Every good news is baked in.

I believe from here you can make a lot of money on the short side. Finally.

 

[772]

It's very unlikely, but you're welcome to try.

The fish are jumping in the boat. Are you allergic to fish? :biggrin:

 

[hockeythug]

I found the shorts:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-25/tesla-enterprise-value-just-25-below-general-motors

Thanks for that. Needed the comedy in the comments on this very cold day up here.

 

[BornToFly]

You might do o.k. until we start to get closer to Q1 results. Everyone seems to be leaving out the EV credits that will be a large source of revenue in Q1 and Q2. Add that to the increasing profitability of Tesla in general, and Q1 profit numbers are going to look much better than expected, and the stock will jump up again. I hope your timing is good....

 

[TD1]

I found the shorts:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-25/tesla-enterprise-value-just-25-below-general-motors

That must be the holy place where FOX NEWS recruits all their experts.
Actually FOX NEWS reporter sound like tree hugging vegan liberals compared to the folks in the comments there.

 

[ThosEM]

This sounds like a rant rather than a reasoned argument. For example, there is nothing but hyperbole with no data. How can you fulminate about charging efficiency of superchargers and not make a comparison with the huge inefficiencies of ICEs? Charging losses of 15% are quoted for AC charging with a rectifier involved, but it would be interesting to know how that scales up to higher DC voltage charging. Too bad you aren't offering any actual numbers. "Just make your own calculation?" Thanks a bunch. This is less than informative or insightful.

Losses expressed in % are negligible though when compared with the factor of 4-5 drop in energy actually applied to the wheels by an ICE powered car. Could it be that physics and mathematics and the ubiquitous presence of electricity are on the side of electric cars?

 

[ggr]

You might do o.k. until we start to get closer to Q1 results. Everyone seems to be leaving out the EV credits that will be a large source of revenue in Q1 and Q2. Add that to the increasing profitability of Tesla in general, and Q1 profit numbers are going to look much better than expected, and the stock will jump up again. I hope your timing is good....

I guess I don't know enough about these credits. Is there something that makes them a once-a-year sort of thing? I assumed they were pretty much continuous.

 

[Realist]

I am still short.

It's not over yet.

 

[FluxCap]

I am still short.

It's not over yet.

Interestingly, TSLA has trended steadily up since you posted this. What specifically do you think isn't over -- market correction?

 

[imherkimer]

Realist, I think you called the bottom this time!

 

[AlMc]

Realist, I think you called the bottom this time!

This was a day for the 'shorts'. There will be more good days for Realist, no doubt. I can only hope that there will be more 'long' days, weeks/months.....years, than 'short' ones. Longs and shorts can both make money if they are smart (lucky?). From a personal stand point a day like this hurts, but after the mid Jan to early March run up put my portfolio up close to 100%, I have to accept a day of pain here and there.

 

[Realist]

Short covered. Stock is showing some strength here.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I agree -- I extended my long position today. Bargain prices.

 

[Realist]

Back into short at 187.

Finally sentiment turns to the bad.

 

[eidco]

I've never shorted a stock so maybe I don't know what I'm talking about but it seems like the time to short TSLA would be when it's above 250. When it falls below 190, I'd see that as a buying opportunity (though I didn't) rather than than time to sell (short). Now it's rising again.

I'm more of a buy-and-hold-good-companies guy so I don't have to worry much about timing. I bought at 90 and then more when it dipped down to 118. Good luck.

 

[ThosEM]

Back into short at 187.
Finally sentiment turns to the bad.

Oops. I shoulda bought at 179...

 

[Robert.Boston]

Oops. I shoulda bought at 179...

Hindsight is 20/20. Always invest based on fundamentals, since you can't possibly get the timing right (consistently).

 

[Realist]

I am back in the game.

Long all the way.

 

[chickensevil]

I am back in the game.

Long all the way.

So we have gone back and forth in a couple places about where the bottom might be and the turning point. I would love to hear your input on that subject and your thoughts on what Q3 might be like.

 

[Newb]

I am back in the game.

Long all the way.

Awesome thread by the way. I've just started reading it from page 1. Lot's of "deja-vu's"