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Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

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I am really impressed by the upgrades on the Model S.

The P85D feels like a nuclear assault on the current establishment, more so than the old P85 at it's time.

I don't see any weak demand for a very long time.

So, I suspect when you get the chance you will be giving it a test drive again? I know the Top Speed was also one of your original concerns. Does 155 fit a little more in line with what you were thinking about? How do you think that other people in Germany will take the new changes, and do you think we will finally see decent penetration into there?

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That's 250 KPH... but the question still stands.
 
I think the P85D is a game changer for the european market, not only because of the higher topspeed.The DualMotor will give the car a massive step forward in terms of handling. It's in a different league now.

I always expected Elon to introduce 4-wheel drive. But the 700hp upgrade für 13.000 € is just to attractive to ignore.
 
I think the P85D is a game changer for the european market, not only because of the higher topspeed.The DualMotor will give the car a massive step forward in terms of handling. It's in a different league now.

I always expected Elon to introduce 4-wheel drive. But the 700hp upgrade für 13.000 € is just to attractive to ignore.

Good to know, thanks for the insight!
 
Hello Realist,
interesting how you changed your mind.
Why do you think is 140K € Model S (If you take stuff like leather and pano-roof) is a game changer in Europe? I can get RS7 and still have enough money left 200-300K Kilometer or even more as you get 10-15% discount. Problem is that these 3,2 Seconds are cool but you cant drive this way for hours (if you want to reach your destination) so acceleration is not everything if you cant drive the car at high speed for longer periods, real life is not just drag-race. Sometimes i drive 250+ Kmh for 100 Km almost non stop (Sauerlandlinie) is im visiting customer.
I would like remind you that bears turn bulls at a peak of the trend. Its not about Model S, its about valuation.
 
Hello Realist,
interesting how you changed your mind.
Why do you think is 140K € Model S (If you take stuff like leather and pano-roof) is a game changer in Europe? I can get RS7 and still have enough money left 200-300K Kilometer or even more as you get 10-15% discount. Problem is that these 3,2 Seconds are cool but you cant drive this way for hours (if you want to reach your destination) so acceleration is not everything if you cant drive the car at high speed for longer periods, real life is not just drag-race. Sometimes i drive 250+ Kmh for 100 Km almost non stop (Sauerlandlinie) is im visiting customer.
I would like remind you that bears turn bulls at a peak of the trend. Its not about Model S, its about valuation.

That was always my point! Why buying a Model S when you can have a Superfast RS6 for the same money?

The Dual Motor Model S changes everything. The torque vectoring of these concept opens a whole new world and the RS7 will corner like your grandmother's bed by comparison. Look at the SLS electric and the new P85D is almost there for a quarter of the price. Unbelievable!

Also it's a giant leap forward regarding power and torque. I think up to 200kph the P85D will be hard to beat even by the strongest German titans.

Anyway, there is nothing like this. It's like Darth Vader being reborn as a car.
 
Correct me but wasnt there some data for quarter mile on P85D that wasnt quite stellar i.e more then M5, dont beat me if im wrong me, i think i saw it somewhere but cant rememer where.
Problem is, how long can you drive it before its toned down due to overheating?
Anyway the market for RS Type cars is small, its more about Halo-cars.

Another problem i see is that norway subsidies will run out by March 2015, just as Ds start arriving in Norway.
 
Correct me but wasnt there some data for quarter mile on P85D that wasnt quite stellar i.e more then M5, dont beat me if im wrong me, i think i saw it somewhere but cant rememer where.
Problem is, how long can you drive it before its toned down due to overheating?
Anyway the market for RS Type cars is small, its more about Halo-cars.

Another problem i see is that norway subsidies will run out by March 2015, just as Ds start arriving in Norway.

There's a big difference between "wait for it to cool down" and "replace the non-warrantied clutch".
 
Hello Realist,
interesting how you changed your mind.
Why do you think is 140K € Model S (If you take stuff like leather and pano-roof) is a game changer in Europe? I can get RS7 and still have enough money left 200-300K Kilometer or even more as you get 10-15% discount. Problem is that these 3,2 Seconds are cool but you cant drive this way for hours (if you want to reach your destination) so acceleration is not everything if you cant drive the car at high speed for longer periods, real life is not just drag-race. Sometimes i drive 250+ Kmh for 100 Km almost non stop (Sauerlandlinie) is im visiting customer.
I would like remind you that bears turn bulls at a peak of the trend. Its not about Model S, its about valuation.

With the new dual motor I would be interested to see what the new power curve for efficiency is, it looks to be much more shallow than before. But I don't see why on a full charge you wouldn't be able to drive full speed and get at least 100KM... To the best of my calculations you should be able to hit that right now with the less efficient Model S and going 130.
 
I can get RS7 and still have enough money left 200-300K Kilometer or even more as you get 10-15% discount. Problem is that these 3,2 Seconds are cool but you cant drive this way for hours (if you want to reach your destination) so acceleration is not everything if you cant drive the car at high speed for longer periods, real life is not just drag-race. Sometimes i drive 250+ Kmh for 100 Km almost non stop (Sauerlandlinie) is im visiting customer.

I'm just wondering if you got that info right on the new P85D. Here's a quick comparison of the P85D specs to the RS7 you've mentioned:


Model S P85D MY2015
Audi RS7 MY2015
kw/BHP
515 / 700
412 / 560
0-100 kph
3,4 s
3,9 s
topspeed
250 kph
250 kph
Fuel cost per 100km at 100kph
6 Euro (0 Euro with Supercharging)
15 Euro
price in Germany
112.000 Euro (incl. tech package and air suspension)
114.000 Euro (base price)
CO2 emissions
zero (renewable energy is easy to get and even cheaper than standard utility power)
221 g per kilometer



Just to make sure we're talking about real-world facts: If you go 250kph in the Audi RS7 for 100 kilometers on the Autobahn, you burn 25 litres of gasoline on that stretch alone. That short travel costs you 40 Euro (gas only) and reduces your range from around 700 kilometers with a full tank to 450 kilometers, given that your normal average consumption is around 10-11 litres/km. So, to sum up, the Tesla is more fun, more powerful and much more efficient. I'd therefore agree with Realist that it's a game changer since there's not much reason left to opt more the Audi.

Now, if you ask me, I'd rather have that juicy P85D. :)
 
Hello Johann,

care to elaborate?

The current situation, where EVs are exempt from both all car-specific purshase tax as well as VAT has no definitive end date set. When this was all decided politically it was said that the whole thing would be "taken up for reconsideration" either in 2017 or when there had been 50.000 BEVs registrered in Norway. Everything points to that the 50.000 cars registered will occur before 2017. There is a new government in Norway since when these rules came in to effect, but this new government does not seem to have a very different view on the importance of EV adoption. There is no official word, but most of the debate and expert opinion on this matter there are rumors that there might be an 8% VAT added in 2016, 12% in 2017, 16% in 2018 and so on. When it comes to the first-time-registration-tax which for regular cars, especially heavy cars, cars with large engines and cars with high CO2-emission, constitutes a substantial ammount of the purchase price less is known or rumored. As long as EVs emitt 0 g of CO2 this tax comes to 0.
 
You get 15% discount on RS7 without asking, and its almost fully loaded, for P85D, you pay another 15K for stuff like leather seats and interior, spoiler, winter package, pano-roof.

I thought the price in Europe was higher for some reason, my bad, so the gap is not so big.

Do you have info on acceleration 0 to 150 or 200 Kmh?

Btw. now the Euro and Krone have lost close to 10% in value against $, how would it eat into margins?
Tesla barely hedges thier transactions it appears, Q2 they had extraordinary earnings of 10 Millions as Dollar fell.
There were no major long term hedges on derivates balance sheet either.

Looks like im turning into new devils advocate here, pass the torch lol.
 
Btw. now the Euro and Krone have lost close to 10% in value against $, how would it eat into margins?
Tesla barely hedges thier transactions it appears, Q2 they had extraordinary earnings of 10 Millions as Dollar fell.
There were no major long term hedges on derivates balance sheet either.

I would argue that their hedge is that they are buying a whole lot of batteries from Panasonic and are, from what I've gathered, paying in Yen. So if the dollar strengthens they have less profit on sales outside of US but lower cost of batteries and vice versa.
 
You get 15% discount on RS7 without asking, and its almost fully loaded, for P85D, you pay another 15K for stuff like leather seats and interior, spoiler, winter package, pano-roof.

I thought the price in Europe was higher for some reason, my bad, so the gap is not so big.

Do you have info on acceleration 0 to 150 or 200 Kmh?

Btw. now the Euro and Krone have lost close to 10% in value against $, how would it eat into margins?
Tesla barely hedges thier transactions it appears, Q2 they had extraordinary earnings of 10 Millions as Dollar fell.
There were no major long term hedges on derivates balance sheet either.

Looks like im turning into new devils advocate here, pass the torch lol.

No the P85D comes with the upgraded new seats that you can only get with the P85D right now and the cost is built in. I would consider the P85D almost fully loaded as well given all the upgrades it comes with.