Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[Realist]

You get 15% discount on RS7 without asking, and its almost fully loaded, for P85D, you pay another 15K for stuff like leather seats and interior, spoiler, winter package, pano-roof.

I thought the price in Europe was higher for some reason, my bad, so the gap is not so big.

Do you have info on acceleration 0 to 150 or 200 Kmh?

Btw. now the Euro and Krone have lost close to 10% in value against $, how would it eat into margins?
Tesla barely hedges thier transactions it appears, Q2 they had extraordinary earnings of 10 Millions as Dollar fell.
There were no major long term hedges on derivates balance sheet either.

Looks like im turning into new devils advocate here, pass the torch lol.

They offer massive discounts on the big power limos. That says it all. Nobody wants these cars anymore.

Regarding the stock price: It has come down a lot from 290$ and seniment wise we are in the woods. We could see a nice ipswing from here in the market and in Tesla.

 

[Mitthrawnuruodo]

Very cool to watch this thread over the years. Realist you made me mad in the past (haha) but this is epic. A lot of my friends are coming around with the P85D. You just can't deny that they are capable of beating the whole industry at this their own game.

What gets me is that the P85D accelerates about as fast as a McLaren F1 which is HALF the weight (2,500 lbs) and they have approximately the same horsepower. It is only .3 seconds slower in the quarter mile.

 

[artsci]

Honestly.

I am short since 91.

I have not driven the Model S yet, unfortunately. But I have seen it several times, sat in it and I have driven the Tesla Roadster for a distinct period. I am looking forward to test the Model S but it is unlikely to change my mind.

Anyway I would like to see less insults here and more facts .Just try to be more objective guys and accept different opinions.

Ignorance is bliss.

This is the first time I have read your posts and it will be the last. Nothing to learn from reading nonsense.

 

[AudubonB]

Artsci: you might do better were you to read the OP's current thread, which is something like "Realist gets Real", and relates how happy and impressed he is with the Model S he finally purchased.

 

[Auzie]

Artsci: you might do better were you to read the OP's current thread, which is something like "Realist gets Real", and relates how happy and impressed he is with the Model S he finally purchased.

How not surprising.

 

[chickensevil]

Ignorance is bliss.

This is the first time I have read your posts and it will be the last. Nothing to learn from reading nonsense.

A lot has changed with him since 2013. He has gone long a few times now and last he posted he was currently long the stock. He is also now an owner of the P85D.

 

[JRod0802]

Link is here:
Realist gets Real ;-)

I got the car last week. Done 900km so far. P85D, Black, 21Wheels, all Options but no piano roof

I am deeply impressed by the improvements over the first p85+ I tried in Dez. 2013. This car feels way more refined, simply better in every way. It's very smooth, charging works excellent,no problems so far. This is a very well engineered car now.

After the first days with the Tesla it becomes clear that this car really comes from a different world. It's entirely different to the i8. The Model S wants to be an everyday car. Usability is excellent, comfort is good, it's easy to drive and the drivetrain is truly unique.

The i8 is much more a conventional GT supercar yet with unbelievable efficiency and a truly remarkable drivetrain as well. Apart from the P85D's super launch it's a lot faster. Above 60mph it will smoke the Tesla regardless SoC. Anyway I am not complaining about that, as the i8 is not nearly as practical AND it's actually closer to a classic ICE in the way it feels and reacts. It's still got a 3 cycl. in the back.

Therefore the Tesla is indeed in it's own league. It's just not really a performance car. If you want that, get a Porsche turbo.

Nevertheless I will attack the Nordschleife in this thing just to see what its capable of.

Funny to read that. I admit at that time I had no clue how this superchargers really work.
In fact the superchargers are essential to the car’s success. Without them I’d never bought the P85D.In my opinion range anxiety is still the main issue for most costumers when buying an electric car. This issue could prevent the established car manufacturers to go purely electric. I believe we will see many plug-in hybrid cars in the near future but the Tesla could stay unique for quite some time.

 

[Realist]

Hi there!

I believe this is the perfect time to short again.

The stock has gone up by 70% in one month because of Model 3.

No matter what we will see today chances are high the stock will fall sharply.

We could even see prices below 100 again in a few months from now.

I think with Model 3 arrival demand for Model S will fall therefore compressing margins even further.

Expectations are skyhigh, you can feel the greed.

 

[JRP3]

We could even see prices below 100 again in a few months from now.

That's a typo right? You meant below 200, right?

 

[Discoducky]

Please do what you feel is right. No worries. Pease let us know when your position is placed.

 

[Realist]

230,56 short

There is a 11% yield in the borrowed equity. Huge demand out there to go short.

 

[neroden]

If the stock really does go below 100, great buying opportunity. Long-term longs can see that the company has a higher *buyout value* (to Apple or Google) than that. So I seriously doubt that will happen.

 

[Fallenone]

Expectations are too high and the valuation is just massively overblown.

The Q2 number is not really important. The outlook is more relevant and there I see clear evidence that Tesla will not be able to sell close to 5000 cars a quarter.
Right now Tesla is selling cars at a pretty insane pace which is unlikely to be sustainable since the Model S is a very high priced car. In countries without TAX incentive the demand is close to zero. In Germany the current reservation number is still in the 3 single digits. I don’t believe the demand for the Model S will be higher than a 100 cars a month. In the Netherlands Tax incentives will run out by the end of this year, therefore demand will collapse in 2014. Apart from Norway, which is not in the EU, no other European country is planning a serious tax incentive on EV cars.

If you take a look at the time between ordering and delivery it has come down to 2-4 weeks. That tells me that Tesla is already not producing at maximum capacity and that demand in the US has already peaked. That is not really surprising since the Model S is very expensive (even with the Tax rebate) and it only applies to a limited audience as it’s range is very limited.

Tesla will have a hard time to make money at all within the next 24 months or even in the distant future. New stock and debt offerings are a safe bet.

Brilliant thesis.

 

[Svetlin]

The stock has gone up by 70% in one month because of Model 3.

Please don't risk your money based on this false statement. The stock is slightly down YTD, just like Nasdaq, and it followed the exact same (only exaggerated) path down into February and then up as every major index and the market as a whole. This was all due to macro-related events, like China slowing growth and further collapse of oil prices.

The run up since mid February was not caused by Model 3, as you will find out soon enough.

 

[Zythryn]

230,56 short

There is a 11% yield in the borrowed equity. Huge demand out there to go short.

Thank you for helping to pay for my new house!

 

[austinEV]

Hi there!

I believe this is the perfect time to short again.

The stock has gone up by 70% in one month because of Model 3.

No matter what we will see today chances are high the stock will fall sharply.

We could even see prices below 100 again in a few months from now.

I think with Model 3 arrival demand for Model S will fall therefore compressing margins even further.

Expectations are skyhigh, you can feel the greed.

Terrible. We are trading at the long term 200day. The rise from Feb tracked the indices exactly. There is no unique TSLA run up. Did NFLX rise in march due to the m3 reveal too? You are hearing excitement, not greed.

 

[Realist]

I had Tesla shares for quite some time.

I have to say that earnings have been a huge dissapointment.

This is still a cash burner and I see no reason for Model 3 to change that. So what's next? This is all we have been waiting for. There is no catalyst no buzz anymore. Model 3 is here in a few hours. And it's just another car. There will ne no IPhone moment.

I think TSLA could easily drop to 100 again. This is a perfect short setup.

 

[Svetlin]

I had Tesla shares for quite some time.

I have to say that earnings have been a huge dissapointment.

This is still a cash burner and I see no reason for Model 3 to change that. So what's next? This is all we have been waiting for. There is no catalyst no buzz anymore. Model 3 is here in a few hours. And it's just another car. There will ne no IPhone moment.

I think TSLA could easily drop to 100 again. This is a perfect short setup.

It's just another car, like the Model S is just another car. It's your funeral.

 

[Realist]

It's just another car, like the Model S is just another car. It's your funeral.

Yeah sold mine by the way.

Happy to drive something real again.

 

[theschnell]

It's not just another car... I have never heard of people taking half a day off work so they can line up outside in the cold and occasionally rain to buy a car they have never even seen before.

It's the beginning of revolution. But to your point, it will take some time and some vision, and the market is impatient and has no vision. So I don't know for sure where the price goes in the short term. However, the short interest being so high definitely works against you going short. Just saying...