I’ve said it before elsewhere, but there is no one element that gives folks priorities. Not if Tesla is managing the refresh as they have all other roll outs. Geography, prior Tesla ownership, configuration, date of order, etc are all factors. There’s definitely going to be someone who lives 20 minutes from the factory, ordered in February, and is buying their third Tesla with an expensive config who will receive their X before someone who deferred or who ordered in December but lives in Illinois and is buying their first Tesla. Just an example.
As someone who has tried for almost a decade to find order in this chaos, my advice is don’t try. Just chill and bask in the anticipation.