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Did Tesla lose focus by making the Model 3 an autonomous car instead of a great EV?

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Not sure it's fair to be comparing a $35k interior to a future car that starts at least close to $55k before you add the options pictured.
The base Audi and BMW are actually cheaper than the Model 3. BMW will probably have a virtual dash in their G20 introduced next year as well. Electronics like that are relatively inexpensive and don't need to be reserved for their higher premium lines. BMW's optional HUD will probably have AR elements.
 
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Autonomous capability will enable Tesla to continue monetizing the car post-sale. The Tesla Network has been mentioned, but not enough attention is being given to the concept of Tesla Insurance that Musk has hinted at. Consumers are paying billions for auto insurance; if Tesla can come offer a reduced premium, because autonomous tech lowers liability risk, all parties win and Tesla gains an additional revenue stream to fund R&D, gigafactories, and supercharge infrastructure.

For myself, I love driving EVs but autonomous capability is one of the features I am most interested in. I work long hours and spend too much time in freeway and city traffic. Nothing would please me more than being able to take a nap as the car taxis me to my destination.
 
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What speculation? Elon has confirmed that a lot of what he promised at Reveal Part 1 will not happen as he had made everyone believe:

- fully loaded versions first? Nope
- production interior different? Nope
- spaceship like controls? Nope
- HUD (i.e. new consumer facing tech)? Nope

There's no fear needed. Anger is what I feel very much now, and a damn lot of it.

Go back and watch the Reveal Part 1.

- fully loaded versions first? Not promised at all. And we don't know what accessories will be available. The only thing we know is that dual motors will not be available at first.

- production interior different? That we don't know, except the screen will likely be the same and in the same spot.

- spaceship like controls? Not promised there. It might still end up being an option.

- HUD (i.e. new consumer facing tech)? Absolutely not promised. Speculated on endlessly by enthusiasts but never by Tesla. Certainly reveal 2 autonomous technology fits this.

I expect more fancy features will arrive relatively quickly after they begin production. It seems that getting production happening on time is the main priority over having every feature available from the first day of production. The fancy features creates delays was what happened with the Model X.
 
I do wonder if Tesla didn't become a little bit a victim of their own success, here.

It is true that the competition is offering in many ways far more in their $35,000 starting cars. Elon has compared the Model 3 to an Audi A4 on Twitter, so that seems like a fair comparison.

However, what the competition does on the base level is a fairly basic car. I haven't quite follower that Audi does in the latest generation, but in Germany those base models have been super-basic (much more so than in the U.S. or even in many other European markets). Using the various trim levels and very long options lists, those basic cars can evolve to not only pricier cars than the next class upwards (i.e. you can buy an Audi A4 that is more expensive than an Audi A6), but also close up much of the premiumness and tech gap between.

But what Tesla has done, by not only peddling in a much more expensive car making at the moment (a large-battery EV vs. a small petrol engined base A4), is adding a massive-screen dash computer as well as (allegedly at least) Level 4 autonomous drive capable CPU/GPU setup in the car as standard. So, at $35,000 they not only have to offer a battery pack (with motor etc.) that is more expensive than a small petrol engine (with gearbox etc.), they also have to - by the way they've set things up - include two computer systems that are likely much more powerful and expensive than anything that does into that $35,000 Audi A4.

All of these things Tesla has made a signature feature: big battery, big screen, autonomous ready.

And because of their advances in those unique areas (first one especially), they have gotten away with offering far less in the other areas of the car. Neglecting them, really.

I can see why they would have to make compromises to reach that artificially inflated base level (compared to competition). That is understandable, though their decisions on forcing a big screen and autonomous capable computer power can be debated. But what is more unfortunate is that - unless something changes unexpectedly - Tesla probably is not offering improvements in many of the lacking areas as upgrades/options, but is rather aiming at a much simpler car than in its class in general.

In Europe, the options lists for cars like Audi A4 or BMW 3 are many, many pages long and the customizations potential is immense. If something is too expensive for the base level, it will simply be offered as paid extra. And that certainly is what I can see many Model 3 reservation holders expecting here too - an optional level of quality that can be bought for an Audi A4, not that level as standard.

Source for the comparison: In response to: "@elonmusk nah more like 3 series and the S is the 7 series big dawg" @elonmusk: "Sorta. Model 3 is like a BMW 3 series or Audi A4. Model S is like BMW 5 and 6 series, but much faster, more storage space + Autopilot" Elon Musk on Twitter
 
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...All I'm trying to say is that the competition that Tesla/Elon have identified is the 3 series and small luxury segment. The competition in the segment may out-tech the tech-car-company if they do not offer these features, even as an addon/extra cost. All I want is an instrument cluster of some flavor in front of the driver... If I wanted a soulless unconnected electric travel pod I can buy one from the other guys. Tesla was supposed to be different, I'm fearful they're making it too utilitarian and potentially uninspired for the purpose of fast production. If that's the case this day 1 reservation holder will be on the sidelines awaiting a different option.

Self driving will out-luxury anything the competition has to offer - it is the ultimate luxury. That's why people like me keep dropping $100K (on my second one in 2 years) on Model S's, despite the fact that you get far less interior luxury than the S Class and 7 Series competition for the same money.

You'll understand, brah, when you get your Model 3.
 
The base Audi and BMW are actually cheaper than the Model 3. BMW will probably have a virtual dash in their G20 introduced next year as well. Electronics like that are relatively inexpensive and don't need to be reserved for their higher premium lines. BMW's optional HUD will probably have AR elements.
Then worry about comparing M3's "next year" interior to BMW's "next year" interior - but for now compare it to what's available.
 
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Actually, I don't see too much appeal in the Model 3 anymore ...
What good reason is there to still get a Model 3??? I am so angry I regret coming here today. If I hadn't, at least I could have slept well tonight. Tesla-news-wise this is the worst day for me since I started taking notice of the company many years ago. :mad::mad::mad:

I'm glad you came - good for our entertainment value. :)
 
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I am a M3 reservation holder, I admire Tesla, I want the M3 I am dreaming of. I admire how they forced others to change their thinking. But I do not understand how uncritical some people are, it is almost like a religion :)... First of all, we are customers... We should not be thankful to Elon for being so kind and selling us a car. We even landed him 1k USD/EUR each. There will be plenty of alternatives out there soon. We shall be critical and and not ignore false promisses. Tell you one thing... If I was standing 12 hours in the line without even seing the car, willing to spend hell a lot for AWD, battery, AP, and all the bells and whistles and paying down the reservation fee, after this week, I would be pretty pissed off :)... I am not sure I will in the end buy the car, Tesla needs to earn my final choice. But I would like to buy Tesla M3, it has been a year of my life now hehe.

BUT, This self-driving thing is funny... While tesla claims it as USP, Germans have it as well, only difference is that they do not talk about it. Mercedes S classe or E classe, new BMW 7er or 5er also... I have seen multiple road test where, if you here and there touch the steering wheel, you can leave it up to your car... Yes, probably not as many cameras and sensors, but this thing has not even been standardized! So who will be right, who will drive the standardization?

I personally think that the window of opportunity for Tesla is shrinking. Germans can make bloody good cars. They can make them fast, in large volumes, an in quality you expect from a premium car. I would argue that the only advantage that Tesla has sustainably long-term, is battery know-how and the Gigafactory... Other things are very easily replicable... Charging network in Europe? If VW, BMW and Mercedes decide to build one? They will do it! They agreed to it, if it will be their painpoint in Europe, they will wipe Tesla out of the map. Can they make the car cheaper than Tesla? Very likely. Do they have the right focus? Not yet. But in 2 years, this could be a different market, and Tesla's promisses in Supercharger network, new sales points, etc. have fallen short. At least in my country. If the M3 fails to deliver, I take my 50k EUR, and very likely spend it somewhere else. And do not give me that thing that I will leave room for others to climb the ladder. :). Again, no cancellation on my side, but less focus on Solar city and other ventures would be a good thing, get that M3 out as promissed and keeping us as fans :)
 
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I agree Tesla's have the greatest autonomous drive potential you buy today - and also by the time you can buy a Model 3. So, for future-proofing autonomous, certainly there is no better alternative (buy a Tesla or wait). Same with a large battery EV in general. Then again, there are no guarantees of what level of autonomy those today's/this summer's Teslas will actually reach and when. Elon himself has mentioned 12-18 months for the next upgrade to the hardware.

Given this rapid pace of improvements, enjoying yourself today in the plush interior of the competition, and perhaps up to Level 3 autonomy, might be a viable option for many. Many companies are coming out with Level 3 right now and in the timeframe that Model 3 is ramping up globally, and some will be EVs. So the idea that Tesla could insulate itself from interior and other improvements by the sheer awesomeness of their autonomous has some merit, especially its future potential, as does the way their EV credentials have allowed a lot of high-end buyers to ignore other lackings.

But this applies to a limited segment of the market, tech-heads, environmentalists, early adopters and so forth. Once those segments are depleted, Tesla better be ready to compete on the same level as the competition. And they still have long ways to go there... It was easier to forgive and forget in 2014. But I think seeing how Tesla's imporvements in the area have basically stalled since then, Model X debacles a prime example, it is becoming increasingly hard to do so. Model 3 will be very quickly shopped by people in masses who expect certain things from their car and autonomous isn't yet one of those.

Tesla should at the very least be forewarned. Elon's charisma and the sheer awesomeness of the mission will not forever excuse everyday lackings.
 
My thoughts are you do not understand the larger picture and where the world is headed - you don't have a handle on the zeitgeist and what drives people's dreams right now - and thus sales. For a lesson in what happens when you focus on EV and not "autonomy" see Chevy Bolt and its massive success.

Correction. It's not "where the world is headed" it's "where automakers want to steer us". I look around me and from what I gather every day in conversations, no one over here is interested in autonomous driving. Sure, as a gimmick, quite cool, but in everyday driving, adaptive cruise control with emergency braking is all that's needed to comfortably get around. And every carmaker has that on offer already, tried and trusted.

And what's wrong with the Bolt, or the Ampera-e? I know many people who are very much looking forward to theirs. Many BEV first-timers too.
 
Agree on the Bolt's looks being fatal.

Funny, over here it will be the opposite. The Bolt looks like a cross between a compact SUV and a minivan, two of the most successful segments in the car market. The Model 3 otoh looks like a sedan, one of the lowest selling segments in the market nowadays. When you look around over here, the majority of the car fleet is made up of

SUVs
station wagons
minivans
hatchbacks
coupes/sportbacks

Sedans are becoming more and more of a niche segment.

Self driving will out-luxury anything the competition has to offer - it is the ultimate luxury.

I have driven a Model S with AP 2.0, and tried it out. To me it might be the ultimate gimmick, but certainly no luxury. Especially as every car I have driven in the last five years had ACC and some also had active (emergency) braking. Nothing in the Tesla AP 2.0 was more "luxurious" or innovative than those others systems. I don't know anyone who cares the least about autonomous driving cars. On a list of priorities when buying a car, it ranks beneath coat hooks, well-lit trunks and other stuff that makes the day to day operation of a vehicle comfortable. AP is a nice-to-have, nothing more.

@Lukas99: thanks for your post, couldn't agree more. You managed to rationally describe what I couldn't because I was so pi**ed off.
 
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...I do not understand how uncritical some people are...We should not be thankful to Elon for being so kind and selling us a car....

After 5+ BMW's and a string of Benzes, including an AMG E class - I ditched the Germans for the Model S because nothing they produce comes close to the Tesla experience.

There will be plenty of alternatives out there soon....

Folks have been saying this for 10 years WRT Tesla. Meanwhile Tesla keeps building better cars each year and the competition is perenially "just around the corner."

If I was standing 12 hours in the line without even seeing the car, willing to spend hell a lot for AWD, battery, AP, and all the bells and whistles and paying down the reservation fee, after this week, I would be pretty pissed off...

You funny brah. For every person wanting AWD and $$ options there's another one who did NOT want these options and just got bumped up in line. I'm a California day-one res holder - the car is a bloody good value and I'll be happy with whatever version I get.

Tesla needs to earn my final choice....

Tesla could give 2 cents about you brah - there are hundreds of thousands of people who want the car and understand there is no substitute in the marketplace, and Tesla will sell all they can build. So go ahead and stammer on about how Tesla owes you something - and meanwhile look around for an alternative. Oh yeah - there isn't one.

This self-driving thing is funny... While tesla claims it as USP, Germans have it as well...probably not as many cameras and sensors, but this thing has not even been standardized!

You got it backward brah - Germans have MORE sensors, far more - yet they haven't produced any product which works as well as AP 1.0's single camera, single radar solution. If you haven't spent a lot of time driving with autopilot in a Model S/X you don't understand the appeal and just how incredibly precise AP has become, or how rapidly AP 2 is improving. The Germans keep producing inferior alternatives that lose the lanes, can't function in faded lane conditions, have complicated user interfaces. Oh did I mention they lose the lanes and drift right out of them with no warning - then try to publicly claim their sh*tty autopilot is a feature not a bug - to keep you paying attention? LULZ. See 2017 E Class. 2018 S Class is supposedly much improved - by which time Tesla will have rocketed ahead again with further development of the end-to-end learning NVIDA system. Even Benzo finally threw in the towel on their 20 years of internal development efforts and has partnered with NVIDIA - but won't have a product on market 'til 2019. LOLOLOLOLOLOL.

So who will be right, who will drive the standardization?

Very European thinking of you - consider the possibility that, in America at least, there will not be standardization. There will merely be performance requirements that are met in different ways.

...I personally think that the window of opportunity for Tesla is shrinking. ..Germans can make bloody good cars. They can make them fast, in large volumes, an in quality you expect from a premium car.

Oh sure LULZ. That's the kind of head-in-the-sand German attitude that got them smacked upside the head by Lexus 27 years ago. And your other big error, made by so many people - is you assume Tesla is standing still and nothing is going on behind the scenes - despite the fact that Tesla clearly iterates faster than any other player in the auto industry. You're trying to extrapolate huge conclusions from a couple tweets! LULZ.

I would argue that the only advantage that Tesla has sustainably long-term, is battery know-how and the Gigafactory

If you can declare this with no reasoning I can declare the same applies to the Germans. The only sustainable advantage they have is building large volumes - an advantage that is rapidly shrinking as Tesla increases its production rates 50% or more per year right in front of everyone's eyes.

... Other things are very easily replicable... Charging network in Europe? If VW, BMW and Mercedes decide to build one? ... they will wipe Tesla out of the map.
This reasoning has been used for a decade WRT "Big Auto Is A Dangerous Sleeping Giant Which May Squash Tesla At Any Moment." Meanwhile Tesla's sales just keeps growing and its brand loyalty is 2nd to none in the world.


Can they make the car cheaper than Tesla? Very likely.
Data? Tesla is investing heavily in manufacturing automation and cost reduction while everybody else sits around. Contrary to your opinion, angry MBZ shareholders recently publicly asked MBZ's Dieter why there is no Benzo response to the Model 3. He had no answer for them except to say they are working on it.


Do they have the right focus? Not yet. But in 2 years, this could be a different
In 2 years a lot will be different, including what Tesla is selling. 2 years ago Autopilot 1.0 had not been released - 24 months later Tesla has given us 8 times more cameras, 40X more processing power, 2X more sensitive sonar.

.
..If the M3 fails to deliver, I take my 50k EUR, and very likely spend it somewhere else. ...less focus on Solar city and other ventures would be a good thing, get that M3 out as promissed and keeping us as fans :)

What you don't acknowledge is car culture is dying, fast. There's a fundamental shift between generations. Young people today do not remember nor care about the legendary handling and control harmony of the E39 M5. EV powertrains feel remarkably similar, and so do handling characteristics (low CG, low body roll due to battery on floor). A Nissan leaf has throttle response as good as my 70D S. AP 1 is soooooo good I just want full autonomy so I can nap and read a book. And this coming from a guy who has extensive track time, driving schools, BMWCCA membership. The car is fast becoming a chauffeur driven experience - people who enjoy driving are becoming irrelevant to the marketplace and they're dying off as their generation fades into history. Once you no longer have to steer handling feel and control harmony becomes irrelevant. Autonomy is soooooo relaxing and such a game changer (again, few realize this outside those who have Model S/X's and enjoy the relaxation benefits of autonomy on a daily basis) that it DWARFS every other consideration in a car in terms of importance.

You will understand this when you get your Model 3 and experience it for yourself.

Autonomy uber alles. Elon knows what he's doing and his sales trajectory reflects this fact.
 
Given this rapid pace of improvements, enjoying yourself today in the plush interior of the competition, and perhaps up to Level 3 autonomy, might be a viable option for many. Many companies are coming out with Level 3 right now and in the timeframe that Model 3 is ramping up globally

Seriously - what competition? Where is it? You mean Volvo - whose latest Traffic Pilot system cuts off when you go faster than 35 mph? Or perhaps you mean Benzo - whose current best offering is a laughingstock because it wanders out of lanes without shutting off or warning you. The best Benzo has coming in the next 12 months is the 2018 S Class - supposedly much improved vs 2017 E Class - but which STILL will not let you remove your hands from the wheel for more than 10 seconds without going into nanny mode.

There is NO alternative bro - which is why I just dropped another $100K on a second Model S. I now drive 40K+ miles per year for business and money is no object to me in finding the most comfortable long range vehicle. If there WAS an alternative - believe me I'd consider it. IF I could buy a top-class German luxubarge that would come close to Tesla's autonomy I would. But I can't. A Model S with air suspension and the new primo seats is a very comfortable car. As good as an S Class interior? Hell no, obviously not. But very good nonetheless - and it has autonomy which Benzo won't be able to touch for 24-48 months. Remember, Benz has now gone the full end-to-end route and appears to have thrown its own 20 years of research down the toilet. It has announced the NVIDIA partnership for - wait for it - 2019. By 2019 Tesla will, if past experience is an indicator - have something on market both more physically luxurious (remember the Volvo interior guy hire), and most likely a third generation sensor suite that includes lidar. It will have 2 years of experience building a full autonomous suite tested in hundreds of thousands of customer cars. Benzo will still be getting out the gate with NVIDIA.

So the idea that Tesla could insulate itself from interior and other improvements by the sheer awesomeness of their autonomous has some merit, especially its future potential, as does the way their EV credentials have allowed a lot of high-end buyers to ignore other lackings. But this applies to a limited segment of the market, tech-heads, environmentalists, early adopters and so forth.

No it doesn't. It applies to the rich. There are not many of us in the world - but in 6 months you won't have to be rich to get an autonomous car. The masses don't yet know how bad they want autonomy because they haven't experienced the huge fatigue reduction which accompanies long drives with the world's best autopilot (AP 1) - and soon AP 2 which will far exceed AP 1.
 
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Funny, over here it will be the opposite...Sedans are becoming more and more of a niche segment.

Agreed - I have lived in Europe - you have a love affair with hatchbacks that doesn't exist stateside.

I have driven a Model S with AP 2.0, and tried it out. To me it might be the ultimate gimmick, but certainly no luxury. Especially as every car I have driven in the last five years had ACC and some also had active (emergency) braking. Nothing in the Tesla AP 2.0 was more "luxurious" or innovative than those others systems. I don't know anyone who cares the least about autonomous driving cars. On a list of priorities when buying a car, it ranks beneath coat hooks, well-lit trunks and other stuff that makes the day to day operation of a vehicle comfortable. AP is a nice-to-have, nothing more.

AP 2 is currently inferior to AP 1 but will exceed it shortly and 8 months from now as the Model 3 deliveries ramp up - will be much, much improved and just keep getting better from there as the neural nets keep learning.


I don't know anyone who cares the least about autonomous driving cars. On a list of priorities when buying a car, it ranks beneath coat hooks.

You live in GERMANY bro. You live in FRANKFURT. This is not an insult. On the contrary I have nothing but respect for the German mindset - for the lane discipline of German drivers. The way they take driving seriously, and strive for excellence in their engineering. Germany has an illustrious automotive history that will never be forgotten by those of us old enough to remember its obsession with quality. God - the Phaeton!! The W140 S Class!!! The E39 5 series! The E36 3 series! The world will not see their likes again. But their time has passed and the nexus of what matters in a car has inexorably shifted.
 
@calisnow Audi is said to get Level 3 in their new Audi A8 introduction, this year. It is speed limited at a top speed, but it takes responsibility of the car for you during that time and gives you like 10 seconds to take control when it can no longer be responsible for the car. Oh and it also is getting an AR-like HUD that maps the car in front of you on your windshield. And of course tons of sensors. And since it really is Level 3 and Audi takes responsibility for the driving, it will work, that much is certain.

This system is beyond what Tesla is shipping around the same timeframe, since Tesla has not made any comment on when they might ship really autonomous (non-aid) functionality. However, the expectation of course is that eventually Tesla will go beyond thanks to its software updates. But this new Audi is Audi's first car to feature their self-driving system, in development for many years now but never before shipped in a car, so anything before it has been a dry-run.

Look, I get your criticism. These companies have not pushed the envelope on their first and second generation systems and Tesla has made magic happen with very limited set of sensors. I understand Mercedes is a year behind Audi. Volvo is in a similar situation, they have had their "AP1s" (some things better than Tesla, others worse), but their real effort is the next system. But make no mistake, these new systems are coming and they will be vastly different from the first ones which were always just designed as aids (and far more truer in that meaning than in the case of Tesla AP1, which actually sort of drives autonomously, or at least did for a while).

And Audi is the one coming out with an Audi e-tron quattro in 2018, so the expectation that it might feature the next interation of Audi's self-driving system is quite plausible. Once there is sufficient parity on the battery, other features of the car will be far more individually valued... for some autonomous upgradeability will be important, but others will prefer, say, a higher quality interior.

There is no point in debating what the percentages are or whom things apply, none of us really know yet. I am just pointing out that people have a range of priorities. If Tesla only caters to a very limited set of those, they may have a harder time once the competition is out with large battery EVs.

IMO Tesla would be wise to offer the full package as soon as possible.
 
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And what's wrong with the Bolt, or the Ampera-e? I know many people who are very much looking forward to theirs. Many BEV first-timers too.

I don't know a single person who wants a Bolt here in Cali, LUL. But I do know 7 personal friends who waited in line day 1 for a Model 3. Maybe you hang around a different crowd.

Correction. It's not "where the world is headed" it's "where automakers want to steer us". I look around me and from what I gather every day in conversations, no one over here is interested in autonomous driving. Sure, as a gimmick, quite cool, but in everyday driving, adaptive cruise control with emergency braking is all that's needed to comfortably get around. And every carmaker has that on offer already, tried and trusted.

@182RG will remember a similar phenomenon: "Get your head outta tha cockpit sonny boy. Ya don't need no stinkin' GPS - I got me a sectional right here and dead reckoning was good enough for Lindburgh Goddamnit. VOR's are good enough fer you. Synthetic vision? Fer god sake if yer a pilot dat der ball and needle is whatcha need. What if yer synthetic vision fails, eh sonny boy? EH? WHAT THEN????? Hey where you goin' sonny boy? Pay no attention to that CIRRUS POS. REAL pilots land their planes - they don't need no stinkin' parachute. :eek:ld pilot wanders back into hangar muttering to self about the good ole days and his trusty round dials.
 
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