Discussion of statistical analysis of vehicle fires as it relates to Model S

[Mario Kadastik]

I think you are being overly expectant on the possible assists that are coming. I think the initial upgrades will be things that others already have i.e. radar guided cruise control and lane departure warnings. I doubt we'll be seeing autonomous assists coming in 2014 that are anything major beyond those above. The tech is still in child's shoes and Tesla won't be rolling it out aggressively. They will continue the R&D and do demo drives with some prototypes etc, but production cars will get incremental updates that start with catchup first. I'd be cautious in predicting anything major even for 2015.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

@Mario

I read on TMC that the driving assistant package that Tesla is developing should be a semi-automatic driving system (not completely autonomous). IMO such a system would be very efficient as anti-collision system. Don't know when it will be ready. I only would like to remember that in 2015 the ACC with complete autonomous potential stop will be compulsory in Europe. So I guess that, since the driving assistant package should be integrated with the ACC, 2015 could be the right year for the its launch.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Elon has on multiple occasions mentioned that he thinks this is an incremental development with assists coming slowly. Getting to 95% autonomous, then to 98% then to 99%, then to 99.5%, then to .... And each of those steps is a factor of 2 or so on time and cost because getting to fully autonomous driving takes a LOT of effort, hardware and software. So I think his own goal is reaching somewhere in the nineties % level autonomous driving in the next 3-5 years or so. With the fully autonomous being a decade after that or so.

So not to piss on your hopes, but I would be really cautious as this is a long term effort and it will take time. Right now Model S has less autonomous options than most of its direct competitors and it will take time to catch up on those. I think someone in Munich asked about adaptive cruise control and Elon couldn't tell exactly when it'll be there, but promised some demos of autonomous driving around summer. Demos and production vehicles are two very different categories. We've seen Model X demos for a year already, right

 

[lolachampcar]

The big difference for me is that all the driver's aids are produced primarily by vendors to the auto industry while the MS (and the MX) are produced by Tesla. There is no reason that Tesla can not simply buy off the shelf aids and add them as they see fit where as the MX is a full blown development effort.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

@Mario (or if anyone else knows/remembers)

I tried searching for that statistical analysis you write about, but I can only find the latest posts in this thread…

When you did that math, I’m guessing you accounted for the Model S being safer than the average car on the road today. In a Swedish context, and according to one insurance company here in Sweden called Folksam (~ Folks commune in English :wink: ), a Model S would be at least 40% safer than the average car on the road in Sweden today…


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.../ I only would like to remember that in 2015 the ACC with complete autonomous potential stop will be compulsory in Europe. /...

I tried searching the dear Interwebs for something that could verify this, but I can’t find anything. Do you have a source?

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…/ I read on TMC that the driving assistant package that Tesla is developing should be a semi-automatic driving system (not completely autonomous). IMO such a system would be very efficient as anti-collision system. /…

If one looks at what is arguably the best autonomous emergency braking system on the market today – the one that’s installed in vehicles from Volvo Cars – then I’m pretty sure that that system can’t prevent accidents that would cause serious injury or death to the occupants in a Volvo vehicle.