I'm wondering with the recent price adjustments, if this will now set the stage for Tesla to eventually introduce a refreshed Model S at a higher price. No one can then complain that they just bought a Model S at a certain price and now for the same price they could have bought the newer refreshed Model S...
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Does this set the stage for Tesla to sell a refreshed Model S at a higher price?
- Thread starter PhilDavid
- Start date
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
I truly doubt there will ever be a Model S (or X) refresh.
For a diminishing 100k vehicles/yr even the economics of offering a replacement battery pack with 21700 cells by 2022 must be questionable, as it is surely cheaper to just let the existing Panasonic lines in Japan continue humming along until the machines wear themselves out.
To keep ahead of the upcoming competition [Taycan, Audi e-Tron GT] MS really needs a suspension overhaul, new interior, fire-proofed battery pack capable of >=2C charging, doorhandles that work [even after a crash], integration of M3 motors/cooling, 360° parking cameras, 48V bus to simplify wiring and eliminate lead-acid battery, so essentially a whole new vehicle in roughly the same body-form, appearing probably around 2024 also with a beefed-up sensor suite including LiDAR, rear corner radars and HW4 processor unit to finally enable the vision of a Tesla Network of >=L4 SAE swarming robotaxis.
Hence I'm predicting the current Models S/X will become "classics" earlier than most would be expecting!
For a diminishing 100k vehicles/yr even the economics of offering a replacement battery pack with 21700 cells by 2022 must be questionable, as it is surely cheaper to just let the existing Panasonic lines in Japan continue humming along until the machines wear themselves out.
To keep ahead of the upcoming competition [Taycan, Audi e-Tron GT] MS really needs a suspension overhaul, new interior, fire-proofed battery pack capable of >=2C charging, doorhandles that work [even after a crash], integration of M3 motors/cooling, 360° parking cameras, 48V bus to simplify wiring and eliminate lead-acid battery, so essentially a whole new vehicle in roughly the same body-form, appearing probably around 2024 also with a beefed-up sensor suite including LiDAR, rear corner radars and HW4 processor unit to finally enable the vision of a Tesla Network of >=L4 SAE swarming robotaxis.
Hence I'm predicting the current Models S/X will become "classics" earlier than most would be expecting!
No, they aren't going to do one. They are moving ahead instead. I think that they really want to get off of the legacy platform.
The simple answer - No.
What Tesla has likely done is permanently set the price point for fully configured non-performance S/X to around $100K.
That price point was at $105K from 2013 through late 2016, with Tesla periodically adding new features or larger battery packs, and keeping the S/X price point around $105K. When AP2 was introduced that price went up to around $115K if both EAP and FSD were purchased, and they kept that price point through 2018.
When I purchased our first Tesla - a 2012 S P85 for around $105K, I estimated the lifetime cost of the S P85 would be comparable to purchasing similar class luxury vehicles (such as the Lexus LS) - with the Tesla costing more up front, and then saving $$ over time through lower maintenance and fuel costs. But at $115K, the S/X was too expensive.
Dropping the fully configured (non-P) price point back to $100K brings S/X back to being more competitive with luxury ICEs, especially with the phase out of the $7500 tax credit. Plus, it will put more pressure on other manufacturers to match Tesla's price/performance/range, likely forcing them to sell their new EVs at a loss, if they want to compete.
If Tesla makes any major changes (refresh, larger battery pack, …) - it's likely they'll do that while keeping the price point around $100K. Though it seems unlikely we'll see a refresh any time soon - Tesla has higher priorities for their engineering teams - Y, pickup, semi, Roadster 2.0.
What Tesla has likely done is permanently set the price point for fully configured non-performance S/X to around $100K.
That price point was at $105K from 2013 through late 2016, with Tesla periodically adding new features or larger battery packs, and keeping the S/X price point around $105K. When AP2 was introduced that price went up to around $115K if both EAP and FSD were purchased, and they kept that price point through 2018.
When I purchased our first Tesla - a 2012 S P85 for around $105K, I estimated the lifetime cost of the S P85 would be comparable to purchasing similar class luxury vehicles (such as the Lexus LS) - with the Tesla costing more up front, and then saving $$ over time through lower maintenance and fuel costs. But at $115K, the S/X was too expensive.
Dropping the fully configured (non-P) price point back to $100K brings S/X back to being more competitive with luxury ICEs, especially with the phase out of the $7500 tax credit. Plus, it will put more pressure on other manufacturers to match Tesla's price/performance/range, likely forcing them to sell their new EVs at a loss, if they want to compete.
If Tesla makes any major changes (refresh, larger battery pack, …) - it's likely they'll do that while keeping the price point around $100K. Though it seems unlikely we'll see a refresh any time soon - Tesla has higher priorities for their engineering teams - Y, pickup, semi, Roadster 2.0.
Brando
Active Member
EVs are more expensive than ICEs - especially without government subsidies.
Model S/X have always been relatively more expensive than comparably equipped luxury ICEs (when you ignore the difference between owning an ICE and an EV).
For many S/X owners, their purchase was (by far) the most expensive vehicle they've ever bought - and it's likely a high percentage of those customers would have strongly considered 3/Y, if available.
Will we see a refresh of S/X? Yes. This could be driven by FSD - if/when Tesla gets approval for unassisted self driving, the driver's "cockpit" will not be as important, and we could see vehicles without a steering wheel, or with an alternative that would allow the steering wheel to have less impact. And we're likely to see increased emphasis on all passengers (including the person sitting in the "driver seat"), items such as workspaces, hotspots, entertainment systems (video!), rotating front seats, … Since Tesla (Musk) strongly believes this will happen in the next few years, it seems highly unlikely we'll see major interior changes until FSD is close to ready.
Will we see other smaller changes to S/X? Yes. Tesla (Musk) has announced a new battery pack will be coming out next year, which will fully support V3 supercharging and extend pack life from 300-400K miles to 1M miles. We're also likely to see smaller interior/exterior changes - if the changes can either have high impact or help reduce manufacturing cost.
Even with other manufacturers introducing competing EVs, Tesla is still the market leader, because of their head start on battery, motor and charging technologies & deployment. In the near term, especially with the disappearing US tax credit, the biggest impact for Tesla will come in cost reductions and bringing the S/X purchase price down while maintaining profitability, and positioning Tesla to defend their S/X sales.
Doubt this is setting the stage for Tesla to increase prices and create an even larger gap between 3/Y and S/X...
Model S/X have always been relatively more expensive than comparably equipped luxury ICEs (when you ignore the difference between owning an ICE and an EV).
For many S/X owners, their purchase was (by far) the most expensive vehicle they've ever bought - and it's likely a high percentage of those customers would have strongly considered 3/Y, if available.
Will we see a refresh of S/X? Yes. This could be driven by FSD - if/when Tesla gets approval for unassisted self driving, the driver's "cockpit" will not be as important, and we could see vehicles without a steering wheel, or with an alternative that would allow the steering wheel to have less impact. And we're likely to see increased emphasis on all passengers (including the person sitting in the "driver seat"), items such as workspaces, hotspots, entertainment systems (video!), rotating front seats, … Since Tesla (Musk) strongly believes this will happen in the next few years, it seems highly unlikely we'll see major interior changes until FSD is close to ready.
Will we see other smaller changes to S/X? Yes. Tesla (Musk) has announced a new battery pack will be coming out next year, which will fully support V3 supercharging and extend pack life from 300-400K miles to 1M miles. We're also likely to see smaller interior/exterior changes - if the changes can either have high impact or help reduce manufacturing cost.
Even with other manufacturers introducing competing EVs, Tesla is still the market leader, because of their head start on battery, motor and charging technologies & deployment. In the near term, especially with the disappearing US tax credit, the biggest impact for Tesla will come in cost reductions and bringing the S/X purchase price down while maintaining profitability, and positioning Tesla to defend their S/X sales.
Doubt this is setting the stage for Tesla to increase prices and create an even larger gap between 3/Y and S/X...
Brando
Active Member
missed Model S Changes from 2012 to 2019 | TeslaTap ??
and the "Raven update" this continuous upgrading hard to keep track of. Your points well taken, thanks.
You're correct that total cost of ownership is where you see EV advantage. Model 3 sales in California off the charts. (see CleanTechnica)
Brando
Active Member
September Model S refresh ??
3 motor version similar to the 2020 Roadster?
IF true, the price will go up.
3 motor version similar to the 2020 Roadster?
IF true, the price will go up.
A new rear bumper, sure. A new front bumper, maybe. A few tweaks to the panels, why not? A new interior, most likely.
But can people get it out of their heads that the 2170 cell is coming to the model S or X any time soon. The whole platform is based on that size in the floor pan. You need to throw out the largest hydraulic press in North America for that to happen. My money is on the 2170 never ever being used in the S or X. The next time the battery gets a full redesign on the S or X we will be on to a new technology. But its 2-3 years away.
But can people get it out of their heads that the 2170 cell is coming to the model S or X any time soon. The whole platform is based on that size in the floor pan. You need to throw out the largest hydraulic press in North America for that to happen. My money is on the 2170 never ever being used in the S or X. The next time the battery gets a full redesign on the S or X we will be on to a new technology. But its 2-3 years away.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Lol, no.
I generally agree with your point, I don’t think the major rework to accommodate 2170s is happening any time soon, for simple cost reasons. But you don’t just “throw out” a press because you need to press a part with slightly different dimensions.
Brando
Active Member
hydraulic press? they just change the forms/tooling. Same press used for sheet steel & Aluminium on all for S/X/3 and soon Y.
(It is normal to have one big press to stamp out sheet metal [aluminium & steel] in each factory.)
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
CarlK
Active Member
Looks this is what Tesla is doing. Incidentally this is what all automakers do at model year switch over and especially when there is a significant refreshing. The only difference is the adjustment is done at the dealer level and not that transparent.
CarlK
Active Member
In a recent podcast Elon was asked about reasons why features in the original S was designed this way or that way. He sounded a little puzzled with the question but still gave a straightforward answer. He said he was only trying to make the best product and that's what he came up with. That pretty much sums up his philosophy. He'd just make the best product he could, with the constrain of cost of course, without those common considerations of market placement and what competition looks etc..
People had the concern when Tesla was designing the Model 3 that it could eat into the Model S market. Most other automakers would try to dumb it down in some way so not to affect the higher margin product but Tesla would not have any of that. It still put every latest and best stuff in it, again with the constrain of cost, even if it is something better than Model S has. In the end Tesla might have sold a few less Model S but it also took a lot more sales from others by doing that. That's something traditional companies don't know how to or not willing to do.
With that I'm most certain a new S will come. When it comes, whether this year or next or next next year, it will pack everything Tesla have with even less cost constrain than the Model 3. As it's been pointed out there are already so many improvements over the years, probably more than any other company could do in several new model generations, Some mentioned to fend off competitions what competitions? Those with meager range and lethargic performance even compares to the Model 3? Although like I said Elon will never bench mark competitions he'd just make whatever he thinks is best he could do. That's the one thing that separates Tesla from the rest.
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Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Tesla is brilliant. They are incrementally improving the Model S/X. Those buyers want a special car. They want an elite ride and top of the line capabilities.
I think that if Tesla brings out a siginficant revamp, that is going to be all that will be needed to motivate current owners to update to the latest version.
A longer range, quicker charging, better handling, smoother riding, up dated styling car wil be strong motivation to upgrade to the latest and greatest. The new computer, adjustable suspension, new motors, new batteries, the latest in quick charging etc will be strong motivators to take the plunge.
Think I wil trade in my 75X to one of the new ones, hopefully coming before the end of the year. Need my Section 179 bump this year.
I think that if Tesla brings out a siginficant revamp, that is going to be all that will be needed to motivate current owners to update to the latest version.
A longer range, quicker charging, better handling, smoother riding, up dated styling car wil be strong motivation to upgrade to the latest and greatest. The new computer, adjustable suspension, new motors, new batteries, the latest in quick charging etc will be strong motivators to take the plunge.
Think I wil trade in my 75X to one of the new ones, hopefully coming before the end of the year. Need my Section 179 bump this year.
Petra
Member
The press works using interchangeable dies, which is why it can make more than one part...
