Removed:
None
Added:
In bold.
Q4 19 Starting ~$242; Finishing B$625, SB$915
Q1 2020
2027
2028
2030
None
Added:
In bold.
Q4 19 Starting ~$242; Finishing B$625, SB$915
- Q3 Production & Deliveries (Complete)
- OTA to improve power on S, X, and 3, 5% for 3, 3% for S and X, improvements for single-pedal driving (Complete)
- Faster SR+ charging (Complete)
- V3 roof launch 24/10 (Complete)
- Model S Plaid breaks Nurburgring record (Complete)
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, charging (Complete)
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs
- Pravduh.com launches?
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
- Megapack deliveries start? California Moss
- Pickup unveil - Nov
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement - by year end, tweet 27 July
- FSD feature complete
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s?
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week)
- Superchargers doubled within 2019
- Q3 earnings & call
- Q3 2019: "looks stronger than Q2 currently"
- First Boring company brick home completed?
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie??
- Tesla communications improve
- 1000 roofs/week by end of year
Q1 2020
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 (from Q4)
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another (from Q4)
- Project Dojo introduction (from Q4)
- Actual Brexit (from Q4)
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? (from Q4)
- Recognition of all EAP payments (from Q4)
- Recognition of first ~50% of FSD payments (from Q4)
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- SpaceX Starship first flight Mk2 planned Nov/Dec
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q4 2019: "will be very strong"
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast?
- Battery & drivetrain investor day
- Battery day like masterplan part 3, focussed on battery volume toward terawatts
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- Astronaut delivery to ISS - Demo2 (From Q4) - Expected Q1
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Snake supercharger unveiled?
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
- 1000/week by end June
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Recognition of final ~50% of FSD payments
- Fiat Chysler pays ~$500m per quarter
- California EV incentive bill proposing an incentive of $7,500 goes live?
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer
- FSD goes live in China / US - Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts?
- Semi Platooning demo?
- Plaid Model S/X on sale - Summer (new / larger battery)
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 earnings & call
- FSD no longer requires a human (except for regulatory purposes)
- 10% tariff on US cars removed in EU?
- Positive p/e ratio, S&P inclusion
- Deal on shuttered GM factory
- Tesla network goes live
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs?
- Roadster production starts?
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)?
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?)
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
- Side project - Mecha unveiled??
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled??
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?
- TSLA stock split 1:50?
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss
- Dems win Election Nov 20 - Green policies reinstated
- Model Y production ramp
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
- GF4 begins production (moved from 2020 Q4)
- Golf competitor unveiled?
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market
- FSD Computer 2 in production
- Las Vegas Loop go live ahead of 2021 CES - Tesla's required
- Pickup first production?
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
- 1m autos produced in year
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize?
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project?
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed?
- SpaceX start commercial Starship flights
- Q4 earnings & call
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)?
- Tesla begin developing aircraft?
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes)?
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028?
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled?
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
