dqd88
Member
Ohhh cool thanks. They should add supercharges to every In-n-Out and Trader Joe's.
-
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Dry powder / milestones
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Removed:
None
Added:
In bold.
May 19 Starting $239; Finishing B$398, SB$413
2027
2028
2030
None
Added:
In bold.
May 19 Starting $239; Finishing B$398, SB$413
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+0
- Final Model Y production location
- GF3 external construction complete (complete)
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs (moved from Jan following 90 day ceasefire) B+0, SB+0
- SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (complete)
- Maxwell deal confirmed B+0, SB+0 (complete)
- Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0
- UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0 (complete)
- Other positives B+159, SB+174
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
- V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews
- Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
- Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
- GF3 cell suppliers announced
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies (expected June 20) B+0, SB+0
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled B+0, SB+5
- Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
- Other positives B+0, SB+3
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+0
- Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+0
- Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
- Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0
- Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Tesla Music?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
- Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
- Other positives B+102, SB+228
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
- Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
- Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
- FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
- Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
- Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
- Other positives B+10, SB+75
- S/X refresh unveiled (interior etc) ? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June)
- Battery Investor day - late 2019 or 2020 B+0, SB+0
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
- Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
- FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
- Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
- Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
- Tesla network goes live B+100, SB+200
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
- Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
- Roadster demos the "hover"
- Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
- GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles B+20, SB+20
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
- Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
- TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Other positives B-20, SB-35
- Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
- Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
- FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
- Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
- 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+40, SB+40
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
- Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+50
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Bull estimate plus super bull estimate - SP. I have been 100% accurate so far - just in the wrong direction....
So when you say "begin and end" if I'm reading correctly, the current stock price of $190 will recover to $398 in the next 4 trading days? Is that like 25% per day? Have you mortgaged your house, repoed your kids, and put it all on that bet?
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
You can Repo your kids for TSLA stock?
Where do I sign up? And where can I get some kids?
Bull (B$) estimate plus super bull (SB$) estimate. Neither updated - awaiting market correction.
Removed:
In bold.
Jun 19 Starting $185; Finishing B$398, SB$428
2027
2028
2030
Removed:
- Final Model Y production location (complete although only a rumour that it is Freemont)
- GF3 external construction complete (complete)
- SRM3 US media reviews B+0, SB+0 (complete)
- Maxwell deal confirmed B+0, SB+0 (complete)
- UBER IPO - valued more than TSLA! B+0, SB+0 (complete)
In bold.
Jun 19 Starting $185; Finishing B$398, SB$428
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
- V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews
- Smart summon starts rolling out
- Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+0 (from May)
- Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0 (from May)
- Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
- GF3 cell suppliers announced
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies (expected June 20) B+0, SB+0
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled B+0, SB+5
- Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
- Other positives B+0, SB+3
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs B+0, SB+0 (moved from May)
- Absolute unit social media dude starts for Tesla in July
- Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+0
- Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+0
- Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
- Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0
- Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Tesla Music?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
- Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
- Other positives B+102, SB+228
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
- Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
- Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
- Refreshed S deliveries start (rumour only - Sep, moved from 2020)
- FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
- Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
- Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
- Other positives B+10, SB+75
- Battery Investor day - late 2019 or 2020 B+0, SB+0
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
- Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
- FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
- Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
- Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
- Tesla network goes live B+100, SB+200
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
- Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
- Roadster demos the "hover"
- Volume production of Tesla Semi, about 20,000 for the year with a four-year ramp to 100,000 units B+50, SB+50
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
- GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles B+20, SB+20
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
- Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
- TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Other positives B-20, SB-35
- Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
- Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
- FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
- Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
- 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+40, SB+40
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
- Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+50
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Bull (B$) estimate plus super bull (SB$) estimate. Neither updated - awaiting market correction.
Removed:
None
Added:
In bold. (from 2019 Annual shareholders mtg)
Jun 19 Starting $185; Finishing B$398, SB$428
2027
2028
2030
Removed:
None
Added:
In bold. (from 2019 Annual shareholders mtg)
Jun 19 Starting $185; Finishing B$398, SB$428
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
- Smart summon starts rolling out
- Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+0
- Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0 (waiting small acquisition)
- Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
- GF3 cell suppliers announced
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies (expected June 20) B+0, SB+0
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled B+0, SB+5
- Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
- Other positives B+0, SB+3
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (from June)
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs B+0, SB+0 (moved from May)
- Absolute unit social media guy starts for Tesla in July
- Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+0
- Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+0
- Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
- Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
- Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Tesla Music?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
- Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
- Other positives B+102, SB+228
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June)
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
- Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
- Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
- Refreshed S deliveries start (rumour only - Sep, moved from 2020)
- FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
- Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
- Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
- Other positives B+10, SB+75
- Battery Investor day - late 2019 or 2020 B+0, SB+0
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
- Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
- FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
- Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
- Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
- Tesla network goes live B+100, SB+200
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
- Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
- Roadster demos the "hover"
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for 2019)? B+0, SB+10
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
- GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles B+20, SB+20
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
- Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
- TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Other positives B-20, SB-35
- Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
- Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
- FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
- Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
- 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+40, SB+40
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
- Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+50
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Bull (B$) estimate plus super bull (SB$) estimate. Neither updated - awaiting market correction.
Removed:
Smart summon starts rolling out (complete)
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$575, SB$765
2027
2028
2030
Removed:
Smart summon starts rolling out (complete)
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$575, SB$765
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2 (from June)
- Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2 (from June)
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+0 (from June)
- Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0 (waiting small acquisition) (from June)
- Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0 (from June)
- GF3 cell suppliers announced. (from June)
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0 (from June)
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies (expected June 20) B+0, SB+0 (from June)
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled B+0, SB+5
- Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (from June)
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs B+0, SB+0 (moved from May)
- Absolute unit social media guy starts for Tesla in July
- Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+0
- Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+0
- Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
- Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
- Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Tesla Music?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
- Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0
- Battery & drivetrain investor day
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
- Other positives - too much to count.
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June)
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
- Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
- Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
- Refreshed S deliveries start (rumour only - Sep, moved from 2020)
- FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
- Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
- Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
- Other positives B+10, SB+75
- Battery Investor day - late 2019 or 2020 B+0, SB+0
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
- Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
- FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
- Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
- Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
- Tesla network goes live B+100, SB+200
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
- Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
- Roadster demos the "hover"
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for late 2019) B+0, SB+10
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
- GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles B+20, SB+20
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
- Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
- TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Other positives B-20, SB-35
- Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
- Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
- FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
- Las Vegas Loop go live ahead of 2021 CES - Tesla's required
- Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
- 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
- SpaceX start commercial Starship flights
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+40, SB+40
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
- Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+50
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Bull (B$) estimate plus super bull (SB$) estimate. Neither updated - awaiting market correction.
Removed:
GF3 cell suppliers announced (complete)
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$575, SB$765
2027
2028
2030
Removed:
GF3 cell suppliers announced (complete)
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$575, SB$765
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
- Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+0
- Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0 (waiting small acquisition)
- Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies (expected June 20) B+0, SB+0 (from June)
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled B+0, SB+5
- Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (Complete)
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs B+0, SB+0
- Absolute unit social media guy starts for Tesla in July
- Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+0
- Pickup unveil B+0, SB+0
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- FSD features and other updates to v9 B+0, SB+0
- Traffic lights, stop signs & roundabout (in dev test 12/9/18)
- Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1
- Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Tesla Music?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
- Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
- Battery & drivetrain investor day
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
- Other positives - too much to count.
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement? B+0, SB+0 (moved from June)
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
- Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
- Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
- FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
- Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie B+0, SB+0
- Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
- Other positives B+10, SB+75
- California EV incentive bill proposing an incentive of $7,500 goes live?
- 10% tariff on US cars removed in EU?
- Positive p/e ratio, S&P inclusion
- Refreshed S deliveries start - multiple minor updates
- Battery Investor day - late 2019 or 2020 B+0, SB+0
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
- Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
- FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
- Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
- Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
- Tesla network goes live B+100, SB+200
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
- Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for late 2019) B+0, SB+10
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
- GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles B+20, SB+20
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
- Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
- TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Other positives B-20, SB-35
- Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
- Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
- FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
- Las Vegas Loop go live ahead of 2021 CES - Tesla's required
- Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
- 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
- SpaceX start commercial Starship flights
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+40, SB+40
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
- Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+50
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Bull (B$) estimate plus super bull (SB$) estimate. Neither updated - awaiting market correction.
Removed:
None
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$575, SB$765
2027
2028
2030
Removed:
None
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$575, SB$765
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? B+0, SB+2
- Astronaut delivery to ISS B+0, SB+2
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? B+0, SB+0
- Auto insurance launches in US B+0, SB+0 (waiting small acquisition)
- Starship hopper test B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, SR, charging B+0, SB+0
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies B+0, SB+0
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled B+0, SB+5
- Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
- Q2 Production & Deliveries (complete)
- V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (Complete)
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs B+0, SB+0
- Absolute unit social media guy starts for Tesla in July
- Pravduh.com launches? B+0, SB+0
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1 (Complete)
- Snake supercharger unveiled ? B+5, SB+10
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? B+5, SB+10
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix B+0, SB+5
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Traffic lights, stop signs
- Tesla Music?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? B+0, SB+2
- Megapack deliveries start? B+0, SB+2 California Moss
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? B+10, SB+30 (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled B+0, SB+0 (Complete)
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
- Other positives - too much to count.
- Pickup unveil - Oct, tweet 27/7 B+0, SB+0
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement - by year end, tweet 27 July B+0, SB+0
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3 B+10, SB+10
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another B+0, SB+0
- Project Dojo introduction B+0, SB+0
- Actual Brexit B+0, SB+0
- FSD feature complete B+0, SB+0
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package B+0, SB+0 (Moved from March)
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s? B+0 SB+0 (moved from Feb)
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week) B+10, SB+10
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone? B+0, SB+10
- Superchargers doubled within 2019 B+0, SB+10
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q3 2019: "looks stronger than Q2 currently"
- First boring company brick home completed? B+0, SB+5
- Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. B+0, SB+0
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie?? B+0, SB+0
- Tesla communications improve B+10, SB+10
- Other positives B+10, SB+75
- Battery & drivetrain investor day (from Q3)
- Battery day like masterplan part 3, focussed on battery volume toward terawatts
- California EV incentive bill proposing an incentive of $7,500 goes live?
- 10% tariff on US cars removed in EU?
- Positive p/e ratio, S&P inclusion
- Refreshed S deliveries start - multiple minor updates
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer? B+0, SB+20 (moved from Q4 19)
- Moody upgrade B+5, SB+5 (moved from March)
- FSD goes live in China / US B+10, SB+30 Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts? B+5, SB+5 (moved from Q3 19)
- Semi Platooning demo? B+0, SB+5 (moved from June 19)
- Deal on shuttered GM factory B+0, SB+0 (moved from Q3 19)
- Tesla network goes live B+100, SB+200
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network B+0, SB+0
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs B+50, SB+100
- Roadster production starts? (moved from Q4) B+0, SB+10
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)? (moved from Q4 2019) B+10, SB+10
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn B+0, SB+0
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3 B+10, SB+10
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k) B+10, SB+10
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)? B+10, SB+50
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp B+50, SB+50
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?) B+50, SB+50
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starship first flight (scheduled for late 2019) B+0, SB+10
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line? B+0, SB+10
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress? B+0, SB+10
- GF4 begins production? B+10, SB+20
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles B+20, SB+20
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure? B+5. SB+10
- Side project - Mecha unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled? B+0, SB+5
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week? B+0, SB+5
- TSLA stock split 1:50 B+0, SB+0
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q4 2019: "will be very strong"
- Q1 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Q2 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Q3 earnings & call B+10, SB+20
- Other positives B-20, SB-35
- Model Y production ramp B+10, SB+10
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars B+0, SB+0
- Golf competitor unveiled? B+100, SB+100
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market B+0, SB+0
- FSD Computer 2 in production B+0, SB+0
- Las Vegas Loop go live ahead of 2021 CES - Tesla's required
- Pickup first production? B+50, SB+50
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored B+0, SB+0
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k B+0, SB+0
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone B+0, SB+0
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet B+0, SB+0
- 1m autos produced in year B+0, SB+0
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped B+0, SB+0
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18) B+100, SB+200
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize B+100, SB+100
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project B+0, SB+0
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed B+0, SB+0
- SpaceX start commercial Starship flights
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+40, SB+40
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel) B+100, SB+200
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?(moved from 2021) B+50, SB+50
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler) B+0, SB+50
- Tesla begin developing aircraft B+200, SB+300
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real B+50, SB+50
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late B+0, SB+0
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+50
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes) B+0, SB+0
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028 B+0, SB+0
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled? (moved from 2022) B+300, SB+500
- Q4 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q1 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q2 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Q3 earnings & call B+50, SB+75
- Other positives B+200, SB+200
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Removed:
None
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$250, SB$300
2027
2028
2030
None
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$250, SB$300
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? (Complete)
- Astronaut delivery to ISS
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
- Auto insurance launches in US (waiting small acquisition)
- Starship hopper test (Complete)
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, charging
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled
- Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
- Q2 Production & Deliveries (complete)
- V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (Complete)
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs
- Absolute unit social media guy starts for Tesla in July (Complete)
- Pravduh.com launches?
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1 (Complete)
- Snake supercharger unveiled?
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k?
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Traffic lights, stop signs
- Tesla Music?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
- Megapack deliveries start? California Moss
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent (Complete)
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled (Complete)
- Q2 earnings & call (Complete)
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
- Other positives - too much to count.
- Pickup unveil - Oct, tweet 27/7
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement - by year end, tweet 27 July
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
- Project Dojo introduction
- Actual Brexit
- FSD feature complete
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s?
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week)
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
- Superchargers doubled within 2019
- Q3 earnings & call
- Q3 2019: "looks stronger than Q2 currently"
- First boring company brick home completed?
- Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs.
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie??
- Tesla communications improve
- 1000 roofs/week by end of year
- Recognition of all EAP payments
- Recognition of first ~50% of FSD payments
- Other positives
- Battery & drivetrain investor day
- Battery day like masterplan part 3, focussed on battery volume toward terawatts
- California EV incentive bill proposing an incentive of $7,500 goes live?
- Fiat Chysler pays ~$500m per quarter
- Recognition of final ~50% of FSD payments
- 10% tariff on US cars removed in EU?
- Positive p/e ratio, S&P inclusion
- Refreshed S deliveries start - multiple minor updates
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
- Moody upgrade
- FSD goes live in China / US - Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts?
- Semi Platooning demo?
- Deal on shuttered GM factory
- Tesla network goes live
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs?
- Roadster production starts?
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)?
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?)
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starship first flight
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
- GF4 begins production?
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
- Side project - Mecha unveiled??
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled??
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?
- TSLA stock split 1:50?
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q4 2019: "will be very strong"
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Model Y production ramp
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
- Golf competitor unveiled?
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market
- FSD Computer 2 in production
- Las Vegas Loop go live ahead of 2021 CES - Tesla's required
- Pickup first production?
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
- 1m autos produced in year
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize?
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project?
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed?
- SpaceX start commercial Starship flights
- Q4 earnings & call
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)?
- Tesla begin developing aircraft?
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes)?
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028?
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled?
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Removed:
Moody upgrade (Complete)
Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. (Complete)
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$250, SB$300
2027
2028
2030
Moody upgrade (Complete)
Tesla auto insurance begins. Combined with leasing provides a 1 stop shop - single monthly payment for all your auto needs. (Complete)
Added:
In bold.
Q3 19 Starting $223; Finishing B$250, SB$300
- S beats or gets close to Taycan Nurburgring time
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? (Complete)
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
- Auto insurance launches in US (Complete)
- Starship hopper test (Complete)
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, charging
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled
- Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
- Q2 Production & Deliveries (complete)
- V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (Complete)
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs
- Absolute unit social media guy starts for Tesla in July(Complete)
- Pravduh.com launches?
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1 (Complete)
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k?
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Traffic lights, stop signs
- Tesla Music?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
- Megapack deliveries start? California Moss
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent (Complete)
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled (Complete)
- Q2 earnings & call (Complete)
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
- Other positives - too much to count.
- Astronaut delivery to ISS (From Q3)
- Pickup unveil - Oct, tweet 27/7
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement - by year end, tweet 27 July
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
- Project Dojo introduction
- Actual Brexit
- FSD feature complete
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s?
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week)
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
- Superchargers doubled within 2019
- Q3 earnings & call
- Q3 2019: "looks stronger than Q2 currently"
- First boring company brick home completed?
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie??
- Tesla communications improve
- 1000 roofs/week by end of year
- Recognition of all EAP payments
- Recognition of first ~50% of FSD payments
- Other positives
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019) (From Q3)
- Snake supercharger unveiled? (From Q3)
- Battery & drivetrain investor day
- Battery day like masterplan part 3, focussed on battery volume toward terawatts
- California EV incentive bill proposing an incentive of $7,500 goes live?
- Fiat Chysler pays ~$500m per quarter
- Recognition of final ~50% of FSD payments
- 10% tariff on US cars removed in EU?
- Positive p/e ratio, S&P inclusion
- Refreshed S deliveries start - multiple minor updates
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
- FSD goes live in China / US - Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts?
- Semi Platooning demo?
- Deal on shuttered GM factory
- Tesla network goes live
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs?
- Roadster production starts?
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)?
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?)
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starship first flight
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
- GF4 begins production?
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
- Side project - Mecha unveiled??
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled??
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?
- TSLA stock split 1:50?
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q4 2019: "will be very strong"
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Model Y production ramp
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
- Golf competitor unveiled?
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market
- FSD Computer 2 in production
- Las Vegas Loop go live ahead of 2021 CES - Tesla's required
- Pickup first production?
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
- 1m autos produced in year
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize?
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project?
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed?
- SpaceX start commercial Starship flights
- Q4 earnings & call
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)?
- Tesla begin developing aircraft?
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes)?
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028?
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled?
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Paracelsus
Active Member
I sincerely appreciate your efforts on this thread @Buckminster - Your list is extremely detailed and it does a great job of identifying accomplishments that are not just financially driven, but even those that are focused on a path towards a more sustainable planet - all the way down to the first house completed with Boring Company bricks. As a person who invested in TSLA for many reasons beyond a simple return I enthusiastically embrace this broader view of success. Buckminster Fuller would be quite proud! You have gone to a lot of effort already to put this together and to continuously update it, so I am hesitant to ask the favor- but if possible could you please put all (complete) designations for all quarters in bold? It would be greatly appreciated. Please keep up the great work here!
Thanks - I appreciate the feedback. I will move all the "Completes" to the top of the quarter and turn them green. Bold is for most recent changes.
Removed:
- S beats or gets close to Taycan Nurburgring time (Complete)
- Utility-scale mega-pack announcement? (Complete)
- Auto insurancelaunches in US (Complete)
- Starship hopper test (Complete)
- I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies (Complete)
- Delightfully counterintuitive BFR design unveiled
- Sub orbital Starship prototype complete
- Q2 Production & Deliveries (complete)
- V3 Supercharger ramp up - positive reviews (Complete)
- Ramped up production on new SR Grohmann module lines at GF1 (Complete)
- Autopilot V10 launches - games, Karaoke, Netflix (Complete)
- Tesla acknowledged as autonomous leader
- Traffic lights, stop signs
- Tesla Music?
- Reviews of non-Tesla products (I-Pace, eTron etc.) - not good, not selling, lack of charging apparent (Complete)
- Lack of new Tesla killers unveiled (Complete)
- Q2 earnings & call (Complete)
- M3 margin not impacted by SR
Added:
In bold.
Q4 19 Starting ~$242; Finishing B$625, SB$915
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? (moved from Q3)
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, charging (moved from Q3)
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs (moved from Q3)
- Pravduh.com launches? (moved from Q3)
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code (moved from Q3)
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? (moved from Q3)
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? (moved from Q3)
- Megapack deliveries start? California Moss (moved from Q3)
- Astronaut delivery to ISS (From Q3)
- Pickup unveil - Oct, tweet 27/7
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement - by year end, tweet 27 July
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
- Project Dojo introduction
- Actual Brexit
- FSD feature complete
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s?
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week)
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
- Superchargers doubled within 2019
- Q3 earnings & call
- Q3 2019: "looks stronger than Q2 currently"
- First boring company brick home completed?
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie??
- Tesla communications improve
- 1000 roofs/week by end of year
- Recognition of all EAP payments
- Recognition of first ~50% of FSD payments
- Other positives
- Autumn 2020 Plaid 3 motors Model S. Nurburgring Roadster record.
- 7 seats Model S coming Nov
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019) (From Q3)
- Snake supercharger unveiled? (From Q3)
- Battery & drivetrain investor day
- Battery day like masterplan part 3, focussed on battery volume toward terawatts
- California EV incentive bill proposing an incentive of $7,500 goes live?
- Fiat Chysler pays ~$500m per quarter
- Recognition of final ~50% of FSD payments
- 10% tariff on US cars removed in EU?
- Positive p/e ratio, S&P inclusion
- Refreshed S deliveries start - multiple minor updates
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
- FSD goes live in China / US - Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts?
- Semi Platooning demo?
- Deal on shuttered GM factory
- Tesla network goes live
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs?
- Roadster production starts?
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)?
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?)
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starship first flight
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
- GF4 begins production?
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
- Side project - Mecha unveiled??
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled??
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?
- TSLA stock split 1:50?
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q4 2019: "will be very strong"
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Model Y production ramp
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
- Golf competitor unveiled?
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market
- FSD Computer 2 in production
- Las Vegas Loop go live ahead of 2021 CES - Tesla's required
- Pickup first production?
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
- 1m autos produced in year
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize?
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project?
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed?
- SpaceX start commercial Starship flights
- Q4 earnings & call
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)?
- Tesla begin developing aircraft?
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes)?
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028?
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled?
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Removed:
None
Added:
In bold.
Q4 19 Starting ~$242; Finishing B$625, SB$915
Q1 2020
2027
2028
2030
None
Added:
In bold.
Q4 19 Starting ~$242; Finishing B$625, SB$915
- Q3 Production & Deliveries (Complete)
- Model S Plaid breaks Nurburgring record
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.? (moved from Q3)
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, charging (moved from Q3)
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs (moved from Q3)
- Pravduh.com launches? (moved from Q3)
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code (moved from Q3)
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k? (moved from Q3)
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA? (moved from Q3)
- Megapack deliveries start? California Moss (moved from Q3)
- Pickup unveil - Oct, tweet 27/7
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement - by year end, tweet 27 July
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
- Project Dojo introduction
- Actual Brexit
- FSD feature complete
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s?
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week)
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
- Superchargers doubled within 2019
- Q3 earnings & call
- Q3 2019: "looks stronger than Q2 currently"
- First Boring company brick home completed?
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie??
- Tesla communications improve
- 1000 roofs/week by end of year
- Recognition of all EAP payments
- Recognition of first ~50% of FSD payments
Q1 2020
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- SpaceX Starship first flight Mk2 planned Nov/Dec
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q4 2019: "will be very strong"
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast? (ARK interview - FSD feature complete by end 2019)
- Battery & drivetrain investor day
- Battery day like masterplan part 3, focussed on battery volume toward terawatts
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- Astronaut delivery to ISS - Demo2 (From Q4) - Expected Q1
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Snake supercharger unveiled?
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
- Pilot line June - according to leaked outdated - assume Sep?
- MY first deliveries
- 2000 per week Sep - according to leaked outdated - assume Dec?
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Recognition of final ~50% of FSD payments
- Fiat Chysler pays ~$500m per quarter
- California EV incentive bill proposing an incentive of $7,500 goes live?
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer?
- FSD goes live in China / US - Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts?
- Semi Platooning demo?
- Plaid Model S/X on sale - Summer
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 earnings & call
- 10% tariff on US cars removed in EU?
- Positive p/e ratio, S&P inclusion
- Deal on shuttered GM factory
- Tesla network goes live
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs?
- Roadster production starts?
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)?
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?)
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
- GF4 begins production?
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
- Side project - Mecha unveiled??
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled??
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?
- TSLA stock split 1:50?
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss
- Dems win Election Nov 20 - Green policies reinstated
- Model Y production ramp
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
- Golf competitor unveiled?
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market
- FSD Computer 2 in production
- Las Vegas Loop go live ahead of 2021 CES - Tesla's required
- Pickup first production?
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
- 1m autos produced in year
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize?
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project?
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed?
- SpaceX start commercial Starship flights
- Q4 earnings & call
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)?
- Tesla begin developing aircraft?
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes)?
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028?
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled?
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
Removed:
None
Added:
In bold.
Q4 19 Starting ~$242; Finishing B$625, SB$915
Q1 2020
2027
2028
2030
None
Added:
In bold.
Q4 19 Starting ~$242; Finishing B$625, SB$915
- Q3 Production & Deliveries (Complete)
- OTA to improve power on S, X, and 3, 5% for 3, 3% for S and X, improvements for single-pedal driving
- Faster SR+ charging
- V3 roof launch 24/10
- Model S Plaid breaks Nurburgring record
- Possibly more "brand name" investors jumping in to join Larry Ellison, Baillie Gifford, Baron, Ark, etc.?
- Updated S/X reviews - new suspension, range, charging
- Trade deal between China and the U.S., reducing tariffs
- Pravduh.com launches?
- New FSD computer s/w surpasses h/w 2.5 s/w code
- Munro SRM3 cost estimate comes in sub $30k?
- Gonna put an old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in LA?
- Megapack deliveries start? California Moss
- Pickup unveil - Nov
- GF4 (Europe) location announcement - by year end, tweet 27 July
- Analyst upgrades following multiple positive earnings, excitement about new products, and reductions in cap-ex vs. Model 3
- Removal of the Brexit uncertainty one way or another
- Project Dojo introduction
- Actual Brexit
- FSD feature complete
- Possibly an update to Roadster SpaceX option package
- Sustained 7k / week Model 3s?
- GF3 (China) begins production of M3 (targeting 3k/week)
- TSLA reaches market cap of $100Bn - Elon achieves first compensation milestone?
- Superchargers doubled within 2019
- Q3 earnings & call
- Q3 2019: "looks stronger than Q2 currently"
- First Boring company brick home completed?
- Another auto manufacturer signs up to supercharger network, bearing some of the costs B+0, SB+0
- Elon announces he will go to the moon as a tourist in 2021 and stand by the Apollo 11 flag to take a selfie??
- Tesla communications improve
- 1000 roofs/week by end of year
- Recognition of all EAP payments
- Recognition of first ~50% of FSD payments
Q1 2020
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- SpaceX Starship first flight Mk2 planned Nov/Dec
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q4 2019: "will be very strong"
- FSD demo - successfully navigates East coast to West coast?
- Battery & drivetrain investor day
- Battery day like masterplan part 3, focussed on battery volume toward terawatts
- Tesla manufacturing their own battery cells announcement?
- Astronaut delivery to ISS - Demo2 (From Q4) - Expected Q1
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Snake supercharger unveiled?
- Model Y production starts, demand similar to Model 3 or higher (almost 1 million units per year) with a three-year ramp
- 1000/week by end June
- Video of MY dreadnought 1.0 - robots assembling wiring harness flexi
- Recognition of final ~50% of FSD payments
- Fiat Chysler pays ~$500m per quarter
- California EV incentive bill proposing an incentive of $7,500 goes live?
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q1 & Q2 2020: "Tough..." "Seasonality"
- Semi deliveries to Tesla and first customer
- FSD goes live in China / US - Elon stated FSD to be regulated in 2020 (1 country only)
- Semi production starts?
- Semi Platooning demo?
- Plaid Model S/X on sale - Summer
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 earnings & call
- FSD no longer requires a human (except for regulatory purposes)
- 10% tariff on US cars removed in EU?
- Positive p/e ratio, S&P inclusion
- Deal on shuttered GM factory
- Tesla network goes live
- Tesla raises capital to build autos for Tesla Network
- Homebuilder announces Solar Roof contract for 1000+ roofs?
- Roadster production starts?
- Roadster media reviews?
- Roadster claims fastest production car beating Chiron 261mph?
- Roadster claims fastest production car around Nurburgring using cold air thrusters (<6 mins - current is 6:44)?
- Volume production of Tesla Semi expected to start end 2020 (four-year ramp to 100,000 units?)
- Tesla announces intention to purchase Boring Co for $10Bn
- M3 reaches 10k / week production including China GF3
- 500,000 autos produced (total for year guidance is 700-800k)
- Amazon orders 1000 Semis, 100 Megachargers, and enough Powerpacks / solar panels to cover entire US enterprise (Carbon neutral)?
- Elon's Masterplan part trois published (bus?, van, golf competitor, Robotaxi - various sizes?, aircraft?, air conditioner, RV?, Tesla trailer home?, neural net concierge service?)
- Elon announces Tesla air conditioner / air purification unit?
- Tesla concierge rolled out - universal app that organises your non-Tesla life - prep for Neuralink
- SpaceX Starlink goes on-line?
- Elon getting great press for Tesla, SpaceX and Boring company progress?
- Next gen battery (2170 2.0 with Maxwell tech) production starts - zero cobalt, million miles
- Mining for battery resources announcement?
- 2020 - Customer M3 achieves 500,000 miles without powertrain failure?
- Side project - Mecha unveiled??
- Side project - Submarine capable auto unveiled??
- Same F9 flies twice within 1 week?
- TSLA stock split 1:50?
- Megapack debut end 2020 California Moss
- Dems win Election Nov 20 - Green policies reinstated
- Model Y production ramp
- Leaked doc - By the end of 2020, Tesla plans to reach a production of 7,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada - assume Apr 21?
- According to the same documents, Tesla plans to also a Model Y production line at Gigafactory 3 in China by October 2020 and ramp up production to 5,000 units per week by February 2021.
- Feb 2021 (outdated Model Y doc) - production somewhere around 1.5 million annual cars
- GF4 begins production (moved from 2020 Q4)
- Golf competitor unveiled?
- Tesla Leaf-blower hits market
- FSD Computer 2 in production
- Las Vegas Loop go live ahead of 2021 CES - Tesla's required
- Pickup first production?
- Pickup first deliveries
- Pick-up video showing amphibious capability - US Marines order initial 100 for worldwide testing?
- Elon takes a vacation - 2 weeks on the beach - comes home early, bored
- Model S/X get refresh with 2170 batteries and redesign, volume increased to 120-130k
- Company should be valued at $150B on improving fundamentals alone
- Gigafactory 1 completion (scheduled for 2020) - biggest building on planet
- 1m autos produced in year
- 1st steering wheel removed & steering column capped
- Autos self drive off production line direct to customer on 3 continents (Elon predicted this could be as early as Nov 19 on a tweet sent 11.19.18)
- Elon awarded Nobel peace prize?
- Boring company announces first hyperloop project?
- Neuralink makes the headlines - first test completed?
- SpaceX start commercial Starship flights
- Q4 earnings & call
- More than $30B in revenue for 2019
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Robotaxi unveiled (no steering wheel)
- 2170 battery 3.0 announced - graphene usage and / or graphene super capacitor to be used in conjunction with 2.0 (Zero cobalt)?
- Tesla Van unveiling (assuming not with Daimler)?
- Tesla begin developing aircraft?
- Tesla will be the best manufacturer on the planet by far, Alien Dreadnought will finally become real
- Chicago Loop completes only 1 year late
- Q4 Production & Deliveries
- Q1 Production & Deliveries
- Q2 Production & Deliveries
- Q3 Production & Deliveries
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- Masterplan part quatre (quatro preferable to avoid the feline jokes)?
- Agricultural Tractor?
- Bus (School bus + long distance for Greyhound)?
- Container ship?
- Fixed home assembled made from trailer home core + Boring bricks?
- Elon successfully lobby’s for worldwide UBI starting at $5k per annum in 2028?
- Tesla trailer house / RV unveiled?
- Q4 earnings & call
- Q1 earnings & call
- Q2 earnings & call
- Q3 earnings & call
- Other positives
- It no longer seems unrealistic that Tesla one day will operate between 10-12 factories around the world, with an output of more than five million cars sometime after 2025, with revenues from automotive vehicles alone approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars
- Tesla Energy will finally live up to its expectations and revenues after 2025 will exceed $100B
- The company could be valued at $500B or $1 trillion sometime after 2025
- A large number of TMC forum members will probably end up becoming millionaires between now and 2030 (if they aren't already)
- Unmanned BFR to Mars (2025 - Elon planning earlier)
2027
2028
- Mars with colonists (2028 - Elon 7-10 years)
2030
- Ron Baron estimate $1T revenue 2030
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